Severe Weather Threat thru Mar 30

Sun Mar 23 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Continued/Gradual Amplification Of The Upper Flow Field Is Expected
Through The End Of The Period...With Ridging To Remain Invof The W
Coast And Cyclonic Flow To Prevail Over The Ern 2/3 Of The Country.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Extending From The Ga/Sc Coastal
Vicinity Wswwd Into The Gulf Of Mexico Will Continue Moving
Gradually Swd Overnight...With Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms To Continue From The E Tx Vicinity Ewd Into The Lower Ms Valley And Adjacent Gulf Of Mexico -- Mainly N Of The Front.

Given Modest Instability...Convection Should Remain Relatively Weak/Sub-Severe Through The End Of The Period.

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Mon Mar 24 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Mean Upper Trough Will Exist Across The Ern States As A Potent Jet
Max Develops Across The Plains And Mid Ms Valley Tue Night.

To The West...An Upper Ridge Will Exist But A Trough Will Approach The Pacific Nw Coast Late.

With A Large Area Of High Pressure Centered Over The Oh Valley
During The Day...And A Reinforcing Polar Air Mass Spreading Sewd
Into The Plains...Offshore Surface Flow Will Maintain A Relatively
Stable Air Mass Over Most Of The Conus.

The Exception Will Be Some Lingering Elevated Moisture And Weak Instability From Srn Tx Ewd Along The Gulf Coast States Where Weak Showers And Storms Will Persist.

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Tue Mar 25 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Models Indicate Further Amplification Of A Significant Short Wave
Trough Over The Eastern U.S. Is Likely Beyond 12z Tuesday.

But... Within An Increasingly Progressive Larger-Scale Pattern...This
Feature Is Expected To Continue Eastward...Gradually Turning Off The
Atlantic Seaboard Late Tuesday Into Tuesday Night.

As It Does...Mid/Upper Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion Is Expected To Support Rapid Deepening Of The Associated Low/Mid-Level Cyclone East Of Northern Mid Atlantic And Southern New England Coastal Areas.

In The Wake Of Its Trailing Cold Front...Considerable Cooling/Drying Is Expected Through The Period Across The Florida Peninsula And Much Of The Northern Gulf Of Mexico.

The Front Likely Will Stall Across Parts Of The Western Gulf Of
Mexico...Into Areas Of Mexico To The Southwest Of The Lower Rio
Grande Valley...Ahead Of A Low Amplitude Short Wave Trough Migrating Eastward Toward The Southern Rockies...And A More Substantial Trough Advancing Into The Pacific Coast...Within The Main Belt Of Westerlies Emerging From The Mid Latitude Pacific.

Mid-Level Cooling Associated With The Latter Feature /500 Mb Temps Of -24 To -30c/ Probably Will Contribute To Sufficient Instability To Support Widely Scattered Thunderstorm Activity Across Parts Of The Pacific Northwest Coast Into The Northern Intermountain Region And Rockies...Perhaps Northern California Coastal Areas As Well.

The Southern Impulse Is Expected To Contribute To Thunderstorm
Activity Mainly Across The Higher Terrain Of New Mexico And The
Northern Mexican Plateau Tuesday Afternoon And Evening.

But Elevated Moisture Return To A Developing Zone Of Lower/Mid
Tropospheric Warm Advection Could Also Support Thunderstorm Activity Across Parts Of The Texas South Plains And Pecos Valley.

Potential For Severe Storms Still Seems Low At The Present Time.

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Mar 26-30 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Models Continue To Indicate That A Transition To A More Zonal Mid / Upper Flow Regime Will Take Place Across The U.S. By The Middle
Of The Coming Work Week...With A Branch Of Westerlies Emerging From The Mid-Latitude Pacific Becoming Prominent.

By Late Week...It Still Appears Likely That One Significant Impulse Within This Stream Will Contribute To Surface Cyclogenesis To The Lee Of The Central Rockies...Before Tracking East Northeastward Toward The Great Lakes Region And Northeast.

The 23/00z Ecmwf Appears To Be Trending A Bit Slower /Than Prior Runs...And The Gfs/ With The Progression Of The Upper Impulse... And Considerably Stronger With The Surface Cyclone Across The Central Plains And Middle Mississippi Valley Into The Great Lakes Region.

If This Trend Were To Hold...It Could Allow Time For A More Substantive Return Flow Of Moisture Off The Western Gulf Of Mexico ...Supporting Potentially Greater Destabilization...And Appreciably Greater Severe Weather Potential Than Currently Seems Probable.

At Least Some Increase In Severe Weather Potential Does Appear Possible Across Parts Of The South Central Plains Into The Ozark Plateau And Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys This Coming Thursday And Friday.

But...With The 23/00z Ecmwf Ensemble Output Not Yet Available...It Still Appears More Likely Than That A Seasonably Modest Low-Level Moisture Return Will Be A Considerable Limiting Factor.


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