Severe Weather Threat thru Mar 3

Mon Feb 24 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Srn Plains Into Lwr Ms Valley...

Considerable Uncertainties Remain Concerning Both The Extent Of
Destabilization And Development Of Substantive Large-Scale Forcing
For Upward Vertical Motion Above The Stalling Shallow Leading
/Southern/ Edge Of The Initial Cold Intrusion To The Lee Of The

Adjustments To The Categorical Thunderstorm Outlook Line Are Based Largely On Output From The Latest /18z/ Rapid Refresh.

It Still Appears That Isolated To Widely Scattered Storm Development Is Not Out Of The Question Across Parts Of Northern Texas Into Northern Louisiana Toward 12z.

Probabilities...Though...May Not Be Much Higher Than The Minimum 10 Percent Threshold.


Modest Boundary Layer Destabilization Now Appears Likely To Remain Confined To Immediate Southeast Coastal Areas.

However...Even Across These Areas...Low-Level Convergence To Support Storm Initiation Remains Unclear.

Based On Latest Observational Data And High Resolution Model Output...Severe Weather Potential Seems Too Low To Maintain The 5 Percent Severe Wind/Hail Probabilities.


Tue Feb 25 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

To The East Of Sharp Upper Ridging Extending Along The British
Columbia Coast Into Alaska...Models Indicate That A Series Of
Digging Short Wave Impulses Will Contribute To The Evolution Of
Another Deep Upper Low Over The Hudson/James Bay Region During This Forecast Period.

This Likely Will Be Accompanied By Significant Reinforcing Surges Of Cold Low-Level Air Into Much Of The Nation East Of The Rockies.

The Shallow Leading Edge Of An Initial Cold Intrusion Has Already
Reached The Florida Peninsula And Northern Gulf Of Mexico.

However...The Deeper Frontal Zone Generally Appears To Extend From Southern Mid Atlantic Coastal Areas Into Northern Portions Of The Gulf Coast States And South Central Plains.

Little Further Progression Is Expected Until At Least Tuesday Morning ...When The Southward Advancement Of Deeper Layer Cold Surface Based Air Commences Across Texas And The Gulf Coast States.

Before This Occurs...Models Indicate That A Southerly Return Flow
Will Contribute To Moistening Within The Boundary Layer Across Much
Of Central And Southern Texas...And Generally Above The Residual
Shallow Initial Cold Front...Eastward Across The Gulf And South
Atlantic Coast States.

This May Contribute To Sufficient Destabilization...Coupled With Large-Scale Ascent Associated With Short Wave Impulses Embedded Within The Evolving Upper Flow Pattern...To Support Areas Of Scattered Thunderstorm Activity Tuesday And Tuesday Night.

The Greatest Coverage Of Thunderstorms Is Expected In Association
With A Developing Area Of Lower/Mid Tropospheric Warm Advection... Above The Deepening Surface Based Cold Air...Across Parts Of Eastern Texas Into The Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast Region Tuesday Night.

Severe Weather Potential With This Activity Still Seems Low...But More Isolated To Widely Scattered...Boundary Layer Based...Storm Development Expected During The Afternoon And Evening Across Parts Of Southern Florida And The Texas Rio Grande Valley Could Be Accompanied By Some Risk For Severe Hail/Wind.

Rio Grande Valley Near/East Of The Texas Big Bend...

Modest Pre-Frontal Boundary Layer Destabilization Appears Possible
With Daytime Heating Along The Dry Line...Across Parts Of The Pecos
Valley To The Northwest Of Del Rio.

Mid/Upper Support For Convective Development Remains Unclear... But Orographic Forcing Could Aid Initiation Of One Or Two Storms In The Presence Of Sufficient Deep Layer Shear For Supercells.

Southern Florida...

40-50+ Kt Westerly Mid/Upper Flow Will Also Contribute To Sufficient
Shear For Supercells...Where Low-Level Convergence Becomes Enhanced Along The Sea Breeze Across Parts Of The Interior Southern Peninsula And Southeast Coastal Areas.

Daytime Heating Of A Lingering Moist Boundary Layer With Dew Points In The Mid 60s Is Expected To Yield Cape On The Order Of 1000 J/Kg...Sufficient For Vigorous Convective Development.


Wed Feb 26 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

The Upper Pattern Is Forecast To Change Little On The Large Scale
This Period...With A Ridge To Remain Over The Wrn U.S. And Broad
Cyclonic Flow Over The Central And Ern Portions Of The Country.

One Small Change Will Be A Short-Wave Trough Progged To Move Inland Over Ca...Undercutting/Moving Through The Background Ridging.

This Feature Will Bring Showers -- And Possibly Some Embedded
Lightning...Especially To Higher-Terrain Areas Of Both Coastal Ca
And The Sierra.

Otherwise...A Surface Baroclinic Zone Stretching From S Tx Ewd
Into Fl Progged Will Continue Shifting Swd And Eventually Vacating The U.S. Entirely.

Limited Convection Early In The Period N Of The Front Should Wane As The Front Advances Swd And Surface High Pressure Spreads Across The Southeast Quarter Of The Country.


Feb 27-Mar 3 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Medium-Range Models Remain Consistent/Similar Through Day 6 /Sat. 3-1/ With Evolution Of The Large-Scale Features.

Within This Time Frame...Risk For Severe Weather Continues To Remain Low.

Early In The Period...Ern U.S. Troughing Is Forecast To Persist...With Cool/Continental Air In Place E Of The Rockies.

A Feature Ejecting Ewd Out Of The Wrn U.S. Day 5 -- Mentioned In The
Prior Outlook -- Is Expected To Weaken With Time As Crosses The S
Central/Sern Conus...Gradually Becoming Absorbed Into The Broader
Ern U.S. Cyclonic Flow.

While A Weak Surface Low May Accompany This Feature...A Persistently Cool/Incompletely Modified Boundary Layer Over The Gulf Of Mexico Suggests That Any Destabilization Potential With This System Should Remain Insufficient For Appreciable Severe Risk.

Models Hint That This Feature Will Be Followed By A Stronger System
Beyond Day 6...That Should Move Into/Across The S Central And Sern
States Late In The Period.

While This Feature May Be Stronger...And Able To Advect A More Completely Modified Gulf Airmass Nwd/Inland...Substantial Timing Differences Apparent Between The Models Preclude Any Attempts To Highlight Any Specific Convective/Severe Risk Attm.

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