Severe Weather Threat thru Mar 29

Sat Mar 22 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Subtropical Jet With An Attendant Belt Of Strong Upper Flow Over
The South Will Remain Largely To The S Of A Region Of Broad Cyclonic Upper Flow Centered Over The Great Lakes And Northeast.

A Shortwave Trough Will Move Through The Northeast States Prior To Dusk As High Pressure Continues To Strengthen Over The Cntrl U.S. Resulting In Cooler/Stable Conditions.

A Cold Front Is Forecast To Slowly Move Swd Across Parts Of E-Cntrl Tx During The Daytime Hours And Serve As A Focus For Showers And Isold Storms.

Ern Tx...

Sly Low-Level Flow Nwd Off The Nwrn Gulf Will Advect Lower To Mid
60s Dewpoints Into Sern And Ern Parts Of Tx And Contribute To
Increasing Potential Instability.

Considerable Cloudiness Owing In Part To Increasing Low Level Moisture And Generally Subtle Forcing For Ascent Will Likely Limit Overall Convective Coverage.

However...Weak Convergence Along The Boundary And Pockets Of Heating Will Likely Weaken The Cap And Result In The Possibility For An Isold Shower/Storm Threat Invof The Boundary By The Late
Afternoon/Early Evening.

A Conditional Hail Threat May Eventually Develop Given Ample Cloud-Bearing Shear And Relatively Cool Mid-Level Temps.

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Sun Mar 23 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Mid/Upper Flow Appears Likely To Remain Largely Confluent Across
Much Of The U.S. Through This Forecast Period.

But One Prominent Branch Of Flow...Curving Cyclonically Around The Southern Periphery Of The Broad Polar Vortex /Becoming Centered Near Southern Baffin Island By 12z Monday/...Appears Likely To Continue Slowly Amplifying Southward Through The Central And Eastern United States.

As This Occurs...Subtropical Ridging...Centered Over Southern Mexico...Is Expected To Weaken...With Weak Mid-Level Height Falls Occurring As Far South As The Northern Mexican Plateau...The Gulf Of Mexico And Florida Peninsula.

In Association With These Developments...The Weakening Center Of A Large Cold Surface High Is Forecast To Shift Southeast Of The Upper Mississippi Valley...Into The Ohio Valley By The End Of The
Period...As Another Cold Surface Ridge Begins To Nose Southward To The Lee Of The Canadian And Northern U.S. Rockies.

Models Suggest That The Shallow Leading Edge Of The Initial Cold Intrusion Will Advance Into The Western And Northern Gulf Of Mexico Early In The Period...But A Residual Moist Layer Above It Is Expected To Continue To Contribute To Weak To Modest Elevated Instability Across Parts Of The Gulf States Through Much Of The Period.

Weak Destabilization Associated With Modest Boundary Layer Moistening Ahead Of The Front Also Appears Possible Across Parts Of The Eastern Gulf States During The Day Sunday.

Parts Of S Cntrl Into Sern Texas...

The Mid-Level Thermal Gradient On The Northeastern Edge Of Capping Elevated Mixed Layer Air Is Expected To Provide The Primary Focus For Thunderstorm Development During The Period.

With Lapse Rates Remaining Relatively Steep Above The Lingering Elevated Moist Layer...It Still Does Not Appear Out Of The Question That Cape And Convective Layer Shear Could Become Conducive To Severe Hail In Stronger Storms.

Srn Georgia And Adjacent Sern Al/Nrn Fl...

Pre-Frontal Lower/Mid Tropospheric Flow Fields Appear Likely To Be
Weak...Allowing For Only Relatively Modest East Southeasterly Storm
Motions.

But Deep Layer Shear Is Forecast To Be Strong...And Could Contribute To Organized Storm Development As Weak Boundary Layer Destabilization Occurs Sunday Afternoon.

It Does Not Appear Out Of The Question That Conditions Could Become Marginally Supportive Of Locally Severe Wind Gusts... Perhaps Hail...In Stronger Storms.

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Mon Mar 24 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Models Continue To Indicate That A Number Of Digging Short Wave
Impulses Will Contribute To Significant Deepening Of Large-Scale
Eastern North American Mid-Level Troughing...Along An Axis Southwest Of Hudson Bay Toward The U.S. South Atlantic Coast By The End Of The Period.

This Is Expected To Contribute To The Initiation Of Cyclogenesis Along A Lingering Frontal Zone Off The South Atlantic Coast By 12z Tuesday.

Prior To These Developments...And Associated Veering Of Lower/Mid Tropospheric Flow To A Drying North/Northwesterly Component Across Western And Central Gulf Coastal Areas...Residual Moisture Above The Shallow Cool Stable Layer To The Immediate North Of The Front May Continue To Support Low Thunderstorm Probabilities Monday.

Potential For Vigorous Convective Development...Though...Is Expected To Remain Confined To The Central Gulf Of Mexico...And Perhaps Areas East Of The Florida Atlantic Coast Late In The Period.

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Mar 25-29 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

In The Wake Of Strong Cyclogenesis Forecast Off The Atlantic
Seaboard During The Early To Middle Portion Of The Coming Work
Week...Models Indicate That Mid/Upper Flow Across The U.S. Will
Transition To A More Zonal Regime.

It Still Appears That A Short Wave Impulse...Within A Belt Of Westerlies Emerging From The Mid Latitude Pacific...Could Support Significant Surface Cyclogenesis To The Lee Of The Central Rockies By 12z Thursday...Before Rapidly Tracking East Northeastward Across The Great Lakes Region And Northeast By Early Saturday.

While Guidance Suggests That A Quick Return Flow Of Moisture Off The Western Gulf Of Mexico Is Probable In Association With This System...The Magnitude Of Moistening Appears A Bit Modest...Even For The Time Of Year.

Furthermore...It Still Appears That The Most Substantive Inland Moisture Return May Not Occur Before The Stronger Mid/Upper Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion And Deep Layer Mean Flow Fields Begin Shifting Away From The Central And Southern Plains/ Mississippi Valley Region.

As A Result...While An Appreciable Increase In Severe Weather Potential May Not Be Completely Out Of The Question...Too Much Uncertainty Exists To Delineate A Regional Severe Risk Area.


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