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Severe Weather Threat thru Mar 2

Sun Feb 23 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Couple Changes Have Been Made To The Outlook For This Issuance.

The First Change Is To Add A Small 2 Percent Tornado Contour In Nrn
Fl For The Rotating Storms That Are Moving Into The Daytona Beach /Flagler Beach Vicinity.

The Second Change Is To Trim The 5 Percent Wind And Hail Probabilities In Nrn Fl...North And East Of Gainesville Fl Where Rain Has Stabilized The Airmass.

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Mon Feb 24 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Over The Lower Great Lakes Region Will Move Quickly Ewd Across The Nern States On Monday As A Shortwave Trough Digs Sewd Into The Nrn Plains.

At The Sfc...High Pressure Will Become Dominant Across The Great Plains And Ms Valley On Monday As A Cold Front Moves Across The Gulf Of Mexico.

The Front Should Slow Down Across Cntrl Fl Around Midday As Moderate Instability Develops In Sern Fl.

This Combined With Onshore Flow And Enhanced Low-Level
Convergence In The Ern Fl Peninsula Should Result In Scattered
Thunderstorm Development Early Monday Afternoon.

Thunderstorms May Also Develop Monday Night From The Srn Plains Ewd Across The Arklatex Region Associated With Warm Advection.

None Of The Thunderstorm Activity Across The Conus Monday Or Monday Night Is Expected To Reach Severe Limits.

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Tue Feb 25 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Little Change Is Forecast To Occur With Respect To The Upper Pattern For Day 3 As Compared To Day 2...With Ridging To Prevail Across Wrn Noam And Cyclonic Flow Over The Remainder Of The Continent.

The Main Vortex Over The Hudson Bay Region Drops A Bit Swd...And Heights Fall A Bit Over The Central U.S.

In Response...High Pressure/Polar Surface Air Is Progged To Likewise Spread Sewd Across The Central Portion Of The Country.

As This Occurs...A Gradual Suppression Of The Main Wnw-Ese Baroclinic Zone Toward The Rio Grande/Gulf Of Mexico Will Occur.

Late In The Period...The Front Should Extend From Deep S Tx Ewd Across The Gulf Coast Region/Nrn Gulf Of Mexico.

As The Front Sags Swd...An Anafrontal/Isentropic Upglide Scenario
Will Continue -- Supporting Showers And Thunderstorms To The Cool
Side Of The Boundary.

Therefore...Will Introduce A Large Zone Of 10% Thunder Risk From The Srn Plains Ewd Across The Gulf Coast States/Southeast U.S. -- With The Nrn Fringe Of The Risk Shifting Swd With Time In Conjunction With Swd Surface Frontal Advance.

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Feb 26-Mar 2 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Medium-Range Models Show Good Large-Scale Model-To-Model
Consistency/Similarity Through Virtually The Entire Period...Though
Smaller-Scale Differences Begin To Affect Forecast Confidence After
Day 6 /Fri. 2-28/.

Until Then...The General Large-Scale Flow Pattern Over The U.S. Will
Continue To Feature Broad Cyclonic Flow E Of The Rockies...And A
Ridge Extending From The Desert Sw Nnwwd Across The Great Basin/Pac Nw.

As This Upper Flow Pattern Persists...The Overall Surface Regime
Will Continue To Feature Polar Air/High Pressure Across Much Of The
Ern Half Of The Country.

Some Moderation Will Occur Across Parts Of The S Central U.S. With Time...As The Frontal Zone Suppressed Well Swd Into The Gulf Of Mexico Early In The Period Begins To Return Nwd Across The Tx Vicinity.

This Nwd Return Of Higher Theta-E Air Will Be Facilitated By Increasing Low-Level Slys Within The Warm Sector Of A Srn High Plains Lee Low.

By Early Friday /The Beginning Of Day 6/...The Lee Low Is Progged To Move...Shifting Ewd In Conjunction With A Short-Wave Trough Undercutting The Wrn Ridge And Moving Across The Srn Plains Through The Day...And Then Across The Gulf Coast States Overnight And Into Early Sat. /Day 7/.

Attm...It Would Appear That Some Limited Risk For Severe Weather
Will Become Possible As The Low And Associated/Compact Warm Sector Move Into The Lower Ms Valley Vicinity By Late Afternoon/Early
Evening.

However...Major Questions Exist Attm Regarding Quality Of Returning Moisture From The Gulf -- Which Will Likely Have Had Minimal Opportunity To Modify In The Wake Of The Departing Polar High.

Thus -- Will Opt Not To Include A Risk Area Attm...But The E Tx / La / Lower Ms Valley Vicinity Will Require Continued Attention In Later Outlooks.


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