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Severe Weather Threat thru Mar 16

Sun Mar 9 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Low Near The Wrn Coast Of Mexico Will Move Ewd Into Interior Mexico Tonight.

Ahead Of The System...Large-Scale Ascent Will Spread Ewd Into The Lower Rio Grande Valley Where Sfc Dewpoints Are In The Mid To Upper 40s F.

In Spite Of The Relatively Dry Airmass...Nam Forecast Soundings In South Tx Show Mucape Approaching 500 J/Kg With The Instability Concentrated From Just Above 700 Mb Up To 300 Mb.

This May Be Enough For Some Lightning Strikes As Shower Activity Moves Ewd Out Of The Higher Terrain Of The Sierra Madre Oriental Range And Crosses The Rio Grande Later Tonight.

Elsewhere...A Few Lightning Strikes May Occur Across Wrn Ore As An
Upper-Level Trough Approaches The Coast Late Tonight.

None Of The Convection Across The Conus Is Expected To Reach Severe Limits Tonight.

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Mon Mar 10 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Split Upper Flow Will Exist Over The Conus On Monday.

The Pattern Will Be Highlighted By A Slow Eastward-Moving Southern Stream Upper Low Over Northeast Mexico/Far South Tx...While A More Progressive Upper Trough Steadily Amplifies Over The Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin.

South Tx/Tx Coast To Far Southern La...

East Of The Northern Mexico/Far South Tx Upper Low...Weak Elevated
Instability With A Few Hundred J/Kg Mucape Will Coincide With A
Sloping/Elevated Frontal Zone Across The Region.

As Such...Periodic/Embedded Tstms Will Be Possible Across Far South Tx/Coastal Tx To Potentially Near Coastal La.

No Severe Tstms Are Expected Given The Weak Nature Of The Elevated Instability.

Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin...

Upper Trough Will Amplify Over The Region While A Cold Front
Steadily Spreads East-Southeastward Across The Region.

Steepening Lapse Rates In The Presence Of Ample Forcing Will Allow For Isolated Tstm Potential...Particularly Monday Afternoon & Evening.

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Tue Mar 11 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Tn Valley...

Weak Height Falls Are Expected To Overspread The Tn Valley Region
During The Day3 Period As Nrn Stream Short-Wave Trough Digs Sewd Into The Upper Great Lakes/Mid Ms Valley Late In The Period.

Sfc Pressures Are Expected To Rise Across The Plains/Upper Ms Valley Forcing A Cold Front Into Cntrl Il...Swwd Across Srn Mo Into Cntrl Ok At 12/00z.

A Narrow Corridor Of Strong Boundary Layer Heating Is Expected Ahead Of The Cold Front And This Should Contribute To Steep Lapse Rates In The Lowest 3km.

However...Weak Inhibition May Suppress Sfc-Based Convection With Frontal Uplift Likely Being Required For Tstm Initiation.

Forecast Soundings Suggest Mucape On The Order Of 400 J/Kg Could Be Noted During The Latter Half Of The Period Across Much Of The Tn Valley Which Should Enhance The Prospect For Elevated Thunderstorms Along/Just Behind The Progressive Cold Front.

Gulf Of Mexico...

Latest Short-Range Model Guidance Suggests Nrn Mexico Short-Wave Trough Will Eject Across South Tx Into The Ern Gulf Basin Late In The Period.

Gfs Allows Moisture And Weak Instability To Return To Portions Of The Fl Peninsula Late.

The Nam Is Considerably Farther South With This Feature And Less Buoyant At The End Of The Period.

For Now Will Not Introduce Thunderstorm Probabilities Due To The
Uncertainty In Speed/Movement Of Nrn Mexico/South Tx Short-Wave
Trough.

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Mar 12-16 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Fast-Moving Short Waves Within Broader Nwly Flow Regime Will Be
Noted During The Upcoming Medium Range Period.

While Several Of These Features Will Be Significant/Strong...The Prospect For Meaningful Moisture To Advance Inland Coincident With Regions Of Ascent Should Remain Minimal.

Any Thunderstorms That Evolve Ahead Of Such Short-Wave Troughs Will Likely Remain Below Organized Severe Levels.


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