Severe Weather Threat thru Mar 14

Sat Mar 8 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Midlevel Trough Over Az/Nm Will Dig Generally Swd To Nw Mexico ...In Response To Substantial Height Rises/Ridging From The Great Basin To The Central Rockies.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Will Continue To Move Swd Into Central Tx Today And S Tx Tonight.

Low-Level Moisture Return Is Underway In A Narrow Corridor From The Wrn Gulf Of Mexico Into S Tx...Where Boundary Layer Dewpoints Have Increased To The Low-Mid 60s...With Pw Values Of 1.25-1.50 Inches.

However...12z Soundings Across S Tx Reveal Mucape Of Only A Few
Hundred J/Kg And A Little Stronger Cap Than Forecast.

Thus...It Will Take Many Hours Of Additional Surface Heating/ Moistening And Low-Level Ascent To Boost Buoyancy And Remove Convective Inhibition.

The Ongoing Midlevel Convection From Ne Ok Into Sw Mo Will Likely
Weaken In The Next Couple Of Hours Given The Meager Cape In Morning Soundings.

Farther S...The Aforementioned Destabilization And Ascent Will Become Supportive Of Thunderstorm Development Across Central/S Central Tx By Later This Afternoon And Continuing Into Tonight... Mainly Near And Immediately N Of The Surface Cold Front Where Ascent Will Be Maximized.

Otherwise...Surface Heating/Mixing Beneath The Midlevel Thermal Trough Should Allow A Few Low-Topped Thunderstorms This Afternoon/Evening Across Extreme Sw Nm/Se Az.


Sun Mar 9 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

South Texas...

Latest Short-Range Model Guidance Is In Closer Agreement Regarding The Evolution Of Upper Low As It Digs Across Nrn Mexico Toward Deep South Tx Late In The Period.

00z Run Of Nam Is Much Slower And More In Line With Gfs/Ecmwf Closing Mid Level Circulation As Strongest Flow Rotates Into The Base Of The Trough South Of The Rio Grande Border.

This Slower Sly Solution Appears Favorable For Inducing Weak Sfc Wave Over The Wrn Gulf Basin.

As A Result...Offshore Flow Should Be Maintained At Low Levels... Though Warm Advection Atop This Stable Boundary Layer Is Expected To Generate Elevated Convection.

Forecast Soundings Across South Tx Exhibit Modest Mid Level Lapse
Rates That Are Saturated And Sufficiently Buoyant For Deep Updraft

Parcels Lifted Near 850mb Should Yield Several Hundred J/Kg Mucape That Will Prove Favorable For Cloud Tops To Penetrate Levels Necessary For Lightning.

Greatest Probability Of Thunderstorms Will Be During The First Half Of The Period Then Warm Advection/Ascent Will Shift Offshore And Greatest Concentration Of Deep Convection Should Be Over The Wrn Gulf.


Mon Mar 10 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Wrn/Cntrl Gulf Coast...

Latest Nam Guidance Continues To Be The Fastest Model Ejecting Nrn Mexico Trough Across Tx Into The Wrn Gulf.

Both The Gfs/Ecmwf Suggest The Trough Axis Will Migrate To A Longitude Around 96w While The Nam Is Considerably Downstream Near 92w.

Additionally...The Nam Is Deeper And A Bit South...Though Sfc Reflection Is Similar In All Models.

While Weak Mid Level Instability Should Contribute To Sct Elevated Thunderstorms Across Parts Of Sern Tx/Srn La There Is Some Concern That Near-Sfc Based Instability Could Approach The Srn-Most Delta Region Of La Late In The Period.

Significant Instability Should Evolve Across The Warm Sector Ahead Of Cold Front Over The Wrn/Cntrl Gulf Basin And This Air Mass Will Advance Nwd To Near The Coast Late In The Period As A Warm Front Approaches Coastal La.

Latest Thinking Is Maritime Tropical Influence Should Remain
Offshore And Meager Instability North Of The Warm Front Will Limit
The Potential For Robust Thunderstorms.

Nrn Inter-Mountain Region...

Cold Midlevel Temperatures And Steep Lapse Rates Will Spread Across The Pacific Nw Into The Interior Inter-Mountain Region Monday.

Strong Diurnal Heating Across Ern Wa/Ore And Parts Of Id Should
Contribute To Weak Buoyancy Sufficient For A Few Thunderstorms.


Mar 11-15 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Southeastern U.S./Fl...

Upper Trough That Will Dig Into Nrn Mexico Then Eject Across The Nrn Gulf Basin Is Expected To Approach The Fl Peninsula Late Tuesday Or Perhaps As Late As Wednesday.

The Ecmwf Is More Aggressive With Ejecting Trough As Significant Midlevel Flow Digs Into The Srn High Plains Forcing A Quicker-Moving Feature.

While Timing Of Ejecting Trough Is In Doubt...It/S Not Entirely Clear How Buoyant Air Mass Will Be Downstream Across The Peninsula Ahead Of The Short Wave.

A Plume Of Pw In Excess Of 1.5 In Is Progged To Advect Inland Ahead Of The Trough By Latest Ecmwf...Thus Sufficient Instability Will Likely
Be Available For Deep Convection And Possibly Organized Tstms.

If Modest Lapse Rates Can Develop Across This Region The Probability Of Severe Storms May Approach Levels Required For A Categorical Risk.

Given The Uncertainty In Speed/Instability Will Not Introduce A 30
Percent Risk At This Time.

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