Severe Weather Threat thru Jun 22

Sun Jun 15 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for Upper Midwest SW to Cntrl/S Plains...

Isolated To Widely Scattered Severe Storms May Occur This Afternoon
Through Early Tonight From Wisconsin...Illinois...And Western
Indiana Through Southern Missouri Into Parts Of Oklahoma And
Southern Kansas.

Damaging Wind Gusts And Large Hail Will Be The Primary Hazards With These Storms.

Primary Change To The Previous Outlook Is To Nudge The Categorical Slight Risk/Associated Probabilities Southwestward Over Central And Southwestern Ok.

Latest Visible Imagery Depicts Deepening Cumulus Field Across
Central Ok Where Mesoanalysis Suggests Minimal Cinh.

Although Low-Level Flow Is Rather Weak...Intersection Of Remnant Outflow Boundary With Weakening Synoptic Front May Be A Preferred Area For Isolated To Widely Scattered Thunderstorm Development Through This Evening.

Strong Surface-Based Instability And 30 To 35 Kts Of Deep-Layer Shear Would Support Organized Storms Capable Of Severe Wind And Hail.

Trimmed Portions Of The Slight Risk Over Portions Of Central Mo Where Surface Winds Have Veered To Westerly And Cinh Has Increased Within A Minimally Unstable Environment.

Prev Discussion...

Broad Troughing Will Prevail From The Wrn U.S. To N-Cntrl States
With Downstream Ridging In The E.

Within This Large-Scale Regime...A Short-Wave Trough Over The Upper Midwest Into Lower Mo Valley Will Pivot Newd Through The Upper Great Lakes While An Upstream Impulse Tracks From The Pacific Nw To Nrn Plains By 16/12z.

At The Surface...An Elongated Area Of Low Pressure From The Nd-Mn
Red River Valley To E-Cntrl Mn Will Undergo Occlusion While
Developing Nwd Into Wrn Ontario.

An Associated Warm Front Will Move Nwd Through The Oh Valley And Upper Great Lakes Ahead Of A Cold Front Edging Ewd Into The Upper Great Lakes.

The Trailing Extension Of The Cold Front Currently From Ern Ks To Wrn Tx Will Become More Diffuse While Developing Nwd Through The Srn And Cntrl High Plains As A Warm Front...In Response To Lee Cyclogenesis Over Ern Co.

Upper Midwest/Oh Valley Into Mid Ms Valley...

The Strongest Height Falls/Forcing For Ascent Associated With The
Migratory Short-Wave Trough Will Become Increasingly Displaced From The More Moist...Unstable Warm Sector Today...Casting Uncertainty On The Degree Of Severe Weather Potential This Afternoon Into Evening.

Moreover...A Convective Cold Pool Associated With A Decayed
Nocturnal Mcs Is Progressing Through The Mid Ms Valley As Of Mid
Morning...And Effectively Narrowing The Axis Of Richer Boundary-Layer Moisture Returning Nwd Through Region...Along And To The S Of The Retreating Warm Front.

Current Thinking Is That Tstms Developing Along The Residual Outflow From Cntrl Il To Sern Mo Should Intensify While Moving Ewd Today With Additional Storms Forming In The Wake Of The Initial Activity Along The Synoptic Front From Cntrl/Ern Wi Into Parts Of Mo.

The Strongest Storms Will Be Capable Of Locally Damaging Wind Gusts And Severe Hail Into This Evening.

Swrn Mo Into The Srn Plains This Afternoon Into Tonight...

Surface-Based Storm Initiation And Sustenance Remains Highly Uncertain Through The Daylight Hours.

Latest Model Guidance Suggests The Most Probable Location For Late Afternoon/Early Evening Storms Will Be Along The Dryline Over Parts Of Wrn/Swrn Tx.

Other Storm Development /Likely Slightly Elevated/ Will Be Possible After About 16/03z Over Parts Of Ok Into Swrn Mo Along The Ern Fringe Of The Nocturnally Strengthening Llj.

Large Hail And Locally Damaging Wind Gusts Will Be The Primary
Hazards...Though A Tornado Or Two Is Possible With Any Storms Rooted In The Boundary Layer This Evening Over Ok Into Srn Ks.

Cntrl Plains Late Tonight/Early Monday...

Elevated Tstm Are Expected To Develop Late Tonight Across Portions
Of Neb Within A Zone Of Enhanced Theta-E Advection Occurring Along A Nocturnally Strengthening Llj.

The Presence Of Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates And Ample Cloud-Bearing Shear Will Be Supportive Of A Few Severe Storms Capable Of Large Hail.


Mon Jun 16 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for E Sd/E Neb E to Iowa/S Mn to Sw Wi...

Severe Thunderstorms Producing Damaging Winds...Large Hail And
Tornadoes Will Be Possible Across Portions Of Eastern South Dakota
And Nebraska Eastward Across Much Of Iowa...Southern Minnesota And Southwest Wisconsin From Late Afternoon Into The Overnight Hours.

Elsewhere...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Will Be Possible Over
Portions Of West Texas.

An Upper Level Low Pressure System Over The Pacific Northwest At 12z Monday Will Move Southeast Towards The Northern Rockies.

Upper Level High Pressure Will Extend From Texas Eastward To The Southeast U.S.

A Belt Of Stronger Mid-Level Flow Will Extend From The Great Basin
Northeast Across The Central/Northern Plains And Great Lakes.

At The Surface...A Warm Front Will Lift Northward Across The Central / Northern Plains While A Dryline Extends Southward From The Central Plains Into The Texas Panhandle.

Ern Sd/Neb Eastward Into Ia/Srn Mn And Swrn Wi...

Low-Level Air Mass Recovery From Recent Cold Frontal Passage Will Be Well Underway At 12z Monday...With Mid-Upper 60s Dew Points
Returning To The Central/Northern Plains.

A Weak Surface Low Will Likely Move Eastward In The Vicinity Of The Neb/Sd Border As A Warm Front Extending Eastward From The Low Lifts Northward.

A Dryline Will Extend Southward Into West Tx.

As An Upper Level Impulse Moves Northeast Across The Central / Northern Plains During The Day Providing Large-Scale Forcing For Ascent...Severe Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop Near The Warm Front Across Western Portions Of The Slight Risk Area And Move East/Northeast.

In The Presence Of Moderate-Strong Surface-Based Instability And 40-50 Kts Of Deep-Layer Shear...Initially Discrete Storms Will Likely Be
Supercellular In Nature And Forecast Soundings Suggest An
Environment Supportive Of Very Large Hail And Tornadoes.

Strong Low/Mid-Level Wind Fields Will Result In Low-Level Srh In Excess Of 250 M2/S2 In The Vicinity Of The Warm Front...And The Risk Of Strong Tornadoes Will Be Greatest During The Late Afternoon And Early Evening Hours.

With Time...Upscale Growth Into A Severe Mcs Will Be Possible With An Increased Threat Of Damaging Winds.

A Categorical Upgrade To Moderate Risk Is Possible In Subsequent Outlooks Across Portions Of The Slight Risk Area As Confidence Increases In The Location Of The Warm Front And The Details
Regarding Thunderstorm Initiation And Evolution.

West Texas...

Strong Daytime Heating Will Likely Result In Isolated Thunderstorm
Development During The Afternoon In An Environment That Will Support Damaging Gusts And Large Hail.

Overall Coverage Is Expected To Be Sparse In This Area.


Tue Jun 17 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Isolated To Scattered Storms Producing Wind And Hail Will Be Possible From The Upper Mississippi Valley And Great Lakes Westward Across The Northern Plains.

However...Predictability Is Low For This Scenario.

The Presence Of A Slow-Moving Upper Low Over The Nrn Rockies Will
Maintain Modest Swly Flow Aloft Across The Plains...With An Upper
High Centered Over Tn.

Substantial Moisture And Instability Will Remain Across The Plains Due To Sly Surface Winds With Low Pressure Across Sd And Neb Through The Period.

The Mean Synoptic Front Will Generally Extend From Sd Ewd Across Mn...Wi And Mi...But Will Likely Be Diffuse.

This Front Will Be The Main Focus For Strong To Severe Storms... Mainly During The Evening And Overnight.

Nrn Plains Into The Upper Ms Valley/Great Lakes...

Weak Ridging Aloft Will Exist Over Much Of The Area In Anticipation Of The Approaching Wrn Trough.

Therefore...It Is Difficult To Precisely Determine Areas Of More Concentrated Severe Storms.

At This Time...It Appears The Greatest Relative Severe Threat Will Be
From The Ern Dakotas Across Mn And Wi...On The Nose Of The Sly
Low-Level Jet.

This Mode Of Forcing For Ascent Would Suggest A Late Day Mcs Will Be Possible With Wind And Hail Threat.

While A Slight Risk May Eventually Be Added...Predictability Is Currently Low.


Jun 18-22 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Substantial Model Spread Already Exists By Wed/D4...Regarding Both
An Upper Low/Trough Over The Rockies As Well As A Developing Upper Low Over Quebec Which May Impact The Nern States.

The Wrn Trough Is Forecast To Either Shift Ewd Into The Plains Or Shift Nwd Across Mt...But There Is Much Spread Among Ensemble Members.

It Is Notable Though That Even With Large Spread Among Mref Members...None Of Them Agree Very Well With The Ecmwf Solution.

Conditionally...At Least Isolated Severe Storms Appear Likely Given That Substantial Moisture And Instability Will Remain From The Cntrl/Nrn Plains Into The Upper Ms Valley And Great Lakes.

Regarding The Nern Trough...There Is Good Clustering In The Bouquet Of Mref Solutions Which Depict A More Zonal Regime...Yet The Ecmwf Depicts A Large Area Of Cyclonic Flow Aloft With Little Spread Among Its Members.

While The Ecmwf Is The Preferred Solution...The Overall Severe Potential Is Not Particularly High...Although Moisture And Instability Would Exist For Storms Across The Mid-Atlantic.

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