Severe Weather Threat thru Jun 21

Sat Jun 14 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Mdt Risk Svr Tstms for Nrn Ks...Cntrl and Ern Neb to Wrn Ia...
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms forSrn...Cntrl and Nrn Plains to Upper Ms Valley...

Very Large Hail...Damaging Winds...And Isolated Tornadoes Are Likely
Across Much Of Nebraska...Kansas...And Western Iowa Saturday
Afternoon And Evening.

Severe Storms Should Also Occur Over Northeastern Colorado...The Texas And Oklahoma Panhandles...And The Eastern Dakotas Into Srn Minnesota.

Upper Trough Currently Over The Nrn Intermountain Region Will Move
East Within A Progressive Flow Regime...Reaching The Cntrl And Nrn
Plains Saturday Night.

Shortwave Trough Within Base Of This Upper Low Will Emerge Over The Cntrl High Plains Late Saturday Afternoon Or Saturday Evening And Continue Into The Upper Ms Valley Region Saturday Night.

Dryline Will Sharpen From Wrn Tx Through Wrn Ks To The South Of A Lee Low.

A Cold Front Is Forecast To Advance Swd Through The Nrn And Cntrl High Plains...Eventually Merging With The Dryline Across Swrn Neb Or Nwrn Ks.

Sern Sd...Swrn Mn...Cntrl and Ern Neb...Wrn and Cntrl Ks to Wrn Ia...

Potential Exists For Significant Severe Events In This Region
Including Very Large Hail...Widespread Wind Damaging And A Few

Strong Sly Low-Level Jet Will Advect Richer Moisture Now Over The
Srn Plains Nwd Through The Warm Sector Into Saturday With Boundary Layer Dewpoints Rising Into The Mid-Upper 60s Over Ern Ks And Neb.

Meanwhile...Plume Of Very Steep Lapse Rates /8.5 C/Km/ Will Spread
Ewd Above The Moist Axis Contributing To Very Strong Instability
With Mlcape To 4000 J/Kg.

A Capping Inversion Associated With Warm Air At Base Of The Elevated Mixed Layer Will Likely Limit Surface Based Development In This Region Much Of The Day.

Initial Storms Will Probably Develop Within Zone Of Deep Mixing Along The Dryline From Wrn Ks Into Swrn Neb.

Additional Storms Are Likely Along The Sewd Advancing Cold Front And The Cold Front-Dryline Merger From Scntrl Through Cntrl Neb.

Winds Aloft Will Increase As A Mid-Level Jet Rotates Through Base Of The Upper Trough And Into The Cntrl High Plains With Effective Shear Approaching 35-40 Kt By Late Afternoon.

The Environment Will Become Very Favorable For Supercells Capable Of Very Large Hail With Initial Storms That Develop.

The Low-Level Jet Is Forecast To Shift East During The Day Resulting
In Relatively Small Hodographs Where Initiation Occurs During The

However...A Small Window May Exist For A Few Tornadoes During The Late Afternoon And Evening...Especially Over Ern Neb Where The Llj Will Strengthen Within Moist Axis And Before Storms Grow Upscale.

Isolated Tornadoes Will Also Be Possible Over Wrn Ks With Storms Initiating Along The Dryline.

Eventually Storms Will Likely Evolve Into An Mcs From Nrn Ks Into Ern Neb Within Zone Of Intense Forcing Along Front And On Nose Of Strengthening Llj.

This Activity Could Produce Widespread Damaging Wind As It Continues Through Ern Neb And Ia.

Wrn Ks Through Wrn Ok And Wrn Tx...

The Atmosphere Is Expected To Become Strongly Unstable In This
Region As Very Steep Lapse Rates Overspread Moist Axis.

Widely Scattered Storms Are Expected To Develop By Mid-Late Afternoon Within Zone Of Deep Mixing Along The Dryline.

Wind Profiles Will Strengthen Ahead Of A Shortwave Trough With Effective Shear From 40-45 Kt Likely.

Supercells Capable Of Very Large Hail Will Be The Main Threat... Though Isolated Tornadoes Will Also Be Possible...Especially Across Wrn Ks.

Nern Co....

Storms Are Expected To Initiate Over The Higher Terrain Within Evolving Post Frontal Upslope Regime Where The Atmosphere Will
Likely Become Moderately Unstable Supported By Steep Lapse Rates And Modest Low Level Moisture.

A Few Supercells Capable Of Large Hail Are Likely.

Storms May Eventually Evolve Into Clusters As They Continue Through The High Plains During The Evening.


Sun Jun 15 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for Srn Wi & Il Sw to Mo to Nern Ok & Sern Ks...

Isolated Severe Hail And Wind Will Be Possible From Wisconsin Southwestward Across Illinois...Eastern Iowa...Missouri... Oklahoma...Southeastern Kansas And The Texas Panhandle.

A Potent Shortwave Trough Associated With A Dying Mcs Will Quickly
Move Newd Across The Upper Ms Valley Early In The Period...With
Substantial Cyclonic Flow Aloft Persisting During The Day From The
Cntrl Plains Into The Upper Great Lakes.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Will Continue Ewd Across Wi...And Will Become Nearly Stationary From Nrn Mo Into Ks During The Day.

Moisture And Instability Will Remain Favorable Ahead Of The Front For Isolated To Scattered Strong To Severe Thunderstorms.

Srn Wi/Il Swwd Across Mo...Sern Ks And Nern Ok...

Early Storms Across Mn And Wi Could Pose A Marginal Hail Threat In A Zone Of Strong Warm Advection And In Association With The Remain Of The Previous Nights Mcs.

Depending On How Strong The Pressure Rise Is...Locally Strong Winds Could Occur Despite Marginal Sfc Based Cape.

As This System Departs...The Moist Axis Will Spread Sewd Into Il With Mid To Upper 60s F Dewpoints Swwd Into Ern Ok.

Clouds May Hamper Heating...But Weak Forcing Along The Front And A Very Moist Air Mass Will Favor Scattered Storms By Late Afternoon.

The Most Favorable Area For Large Hail And Perhaps Supercells Will Be From Sern Ks Into Nern Ok And Mo.

Otherwise...Small Bows Will Be Possible Into Il With Damaging Winds And Marginal Hail Possible.

Storms Are Expected To Persist Well Into The Evening Within The Moist Axis As Cin Will Remain Weak And Cells Will Back-Build.


Mon Jun 16 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for Ern Neb/Sern Sd to Ia and Swrn Mn...

There Is A Chance Of Severe Weather Over Portions Of The Northern
Plains And Mid Missouri Valley On Monday.

A Progressive Shortwave Trough Will Depart The Upper Ms Valley/ Great Lakes Region During The Day On Monday...With Some Indication Of A Weaker Impulse Embedded Within The Swly Flow Affecting The Nrn Plains By Late Afternoon.

All This Will Be Preceding A Larger Upper Trough Situated Over The Nwrn States.

At The Surface...Low Pressure Will Form Over Wrn Neb With Substantial Moisture And Instability Building Nwd Due To Strong Sly
Sfc Winds.

An Effective Warm Front Is Expected To Lie Roughly From Sern Sd/Nern Neb Into Ia And Srn Mn By Afternoon...With Bouts Of Storms Focused On This Boundary...Mainly Late.

A Dryline Will Extend Swd From The Sfc Low...From Cntrl Neb Into W Tx.

Heating And Lift Near The Warm Front Should Result In A Severe Threat From Neb Into Ia...With More Isolated Activity Swd Along The Dryline.

Nern Neb Into Cntrl Ia...Swrn Mn And Sern Sd...

Thunderstorms Are Expected To Form Ne Of The Surface Low And Near The Warm Front Across Ern Neb And Sd By Mid Afternoon...With
Activity Building Into Mn And Ia.

Models Suggest A Prolonged Period Of Redevelopment In This Area Where Warm Advection Will Persist.

The Greatest Threat Should Be From Late Afternoon Through The Evening When Instability Will Be Maximized As Well As Forcing For Ascent On The Nose Of The Low Level Jet.

Veering Wind Profiles With Height Will Favor Supercellular Storm Mode Initially...With Large Hail And A Few Tornadoes Possible Before Merging Into An Mcs Most Likely After 00z.

Hail Is Likely To Be Very Large.

Wrn Ks Into Wrn Tx...

Strong Heating Will Lead To An Unstable And Uncapped Air Mass Along The Dryline From Wrn Tx Into Wrn Ks.

While There Will Be Little Large Scale Support With Neutral Height Tendencies Aloft...Isolated Severe Storms Will Be Possible During The Late Afternoon.

Thermodynamic Profiles Along With Low-Level Veering Winds With
Height Will Favor Slow Moving Cells Capable Of Large Hail And
Locally Severe Wind Gusts.


Jun 17-21 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

An Upper Low Will Be Centered Over The Pacific Nw On Tue/D4 With
Cyclonic Flow Extending Ewd Into The Cntrl And Nrn Plains.

A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Will Exist At The Surface Across The Nrn Plains...With A Dryline From Wrn Neb Into W Tx.

Isolated Storms Will Be Possible During The Afternoon On The Dryline...But Mid/Upper Flow May Be Marginal.

The Greater Chance Of Thunderstorms Will Be Overnight With Warm Advection Perhaps From Mn Into Wi But Predictability Is Low.

The Upper Low Is Forecast To Eject Ewd Across The Nrn Plains On
Wed/D5...Then Models Solutions Are Quite Mismatched Thereafter.

However...This Would Suggest A Severe Threat From The Dakotas Into Nebraska With Wind And Hail Possible.

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