Severe Weather Threat thru Jun 15

Sun Jun 8 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for Cntrl & S Plains & Low Ms Valley to SE States...
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for Upper Oh Valley...

Strong To Severe Storms Are Expected From The Lee Of The Central And Southern Rockies Across Parts Of The South And Southeast... And Over Portions Of The Upper Ohio Valley.

Damaging Winds...Large Hail...And A Couple Tornadoes Are Possible.

Central And Srn High Plains...

Given Convective Trends Across Ern Co Into The Far Srn Extent Of The
Neb Panhandle And Latest Hrrr Guidance Showing An Eventual Line Of Storms Spreading Sewd Across The Rest Of Ern Co Into Wrn Ks...The Slight Risk And Severe Wind/Hail Probabilities Have Been Expanded Ewd Into More Of Wrn Ks.

These Trends...Especially Per The Hrrr...Also Resulted In A Nwd Expansion Of The 30 Percent Severe Wind Probability Into More Of Swrn Ks.

Meanwhile...The 5 Percent Tornado Probability Has Been Expanded To Include The Rest Of Nern And Ern Co...And Also Swd Through The Rest Of Ern Nm And West And Southwest Tx.

Central Gulf Coast And Sern States...

Given Convective Trends And The Presence Of Very Strong Instability
/Mlcape 2000-3000 J Per Kg/ Across This Region Including More Of Wrn Ga And The Fl Panhandle...The Slight Risk And Severe Wind
Probabilities Have Been Expanded Some To The East And South.

Prev Discussion...

Central/Srn High Plains...

A Complex Scenario Is Unfolding For This Afternoon Into Tonight As
Water Vapor Imagery Shows A Strong Short Wave Trough Moving Ewd
Across Ut.

This Feature Is Forecast To Cross The Central Rockies This Afternoon And Move Into The Central High Plains By Late Tonight.

To The East/Southeast...Several Downstream Mcv/S Are Moving Ewd Across Central Ok And North Central...With Elevated Storms Increasing Over Parts Of The Tx South Plains In The Immediate Wake Of The Tx Mcv.

These Storms Are Expected To Persist Into The Afternoon As They Are Moving/Developing In A Small Clearing Region Behind The Srn Mcv...And May Pose A Hail Threat Given The Steep Mid Level Lapse Rate Environment Over The High Plains.

Maximum Cape Is Expected To Reach 1000-2000 J/Kg In The Cape-Convective Environment This Afternoon And Evening.

Storms Are Likely To Increase This Afternoon Near The Front Range
And High Plains Of Ern Co As Large Scale Ascent In Advance Of The
Approaching Short Wave Trough Overspreads The Region From The
West...With Perhaps More Isolated Initiation Over Parts Of Ern Nm.

Veering Winds With Height Will Provide Sufficient Deep Layer Shear
To Promote A Few Supercells That Will Pose A Threat Of Very Large
Hail And Possibly A Couple Of Tornadoes...Especially Over Sern
Co/Nern And East Central Nm.

Convection-Allowing Model Guidance Indicates Storms Over Ern Co/Nern Nm May Grow Upscale Into A Linear Mode With Bowing Segments Moving Ewd/Sewd Through The Evening Hours With An Attendant Increase In Damaging Wind Threat Into Tonight Extending Into Swrn Ks/Nwrn Tx And Possibly Wrn Ok.

Farther South...Additional Severe Storms Are Possible Again Over
Swrn Tx Where Orographic Ascent And Favorable Instability/Shear Will
Support Supercell Structures Mainly During The Late Afternoon And
Evening Hours.

Central/Nrn Tx Ewd To The Lower Ms Valley...

Sufficient Deep Layer Shear Of 25-35 Kt Will Support Primarily Organized Multi-Cell Structures With Stronger Storms Capable Of Producing Strong Wind Gusts And Large Hail Through The Evening Hours.

Srn Tn Valley Into The Sern States...

The Air Mass Is Already Quite Unstable With Mlcape Of 2000-2500 J/Kg.

12z Upper Air Data Indicated 30-40 Kt Wly/Wnwly Mid-Level Winds
Across The Area Which Should Be Sufficient For Organized Strong / Severe Multi-Cells Storms To Develop By Early Afternoon.

Other Intense Storms Are Expected To Initiate Over Srn Al And Nwrn
Fl.

Stronger Cells Will Be Capable Of Damaging Wind Gusts And Hail
As Storms Spread Ewd/Sewd Into The Evening Hours.

Upper Oh Valley Region...

An Associated Surface Low Over Wrn Oh And Trailing Cold Front Will Move Across This Area And Promote New Convective Storms This Afternoon Along/Ahead Of The Low And Front As Moisture Increases Nwd.

A Few Strong/Severe Storms Are Expected This Afternoon And Early Evening With Potential For Damaging Wind Gusts...Marginal Hail... And Possibly A Brief Tornado Or Two.

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Mon Jun 9 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for S and Cntrl Tx to Lower Ms and Tn Valleys....

Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Are Possible Across Parts Of Central And Northeast Texas Into The Mid-To-Lower Mississippi Valley On Monday And Monday Night.

Strong Winds And Large Hail Will Be The Main Threats.

A Shortwave Trough Moving Sewd Through The Central Rockies Today Is Expected To Undergo Additional Amplification Through Day 2 As It Maintains A Sewd Track From The Central Plains Toward The Ozarks And Lower Ms Valley.

A Closed Low With This Trough Should Be Centered Over Wrn Portions Of The Central Plains At 12z Monday And Reach Swrn Mo/Nwrn Ar Region By 12z Tuesday.

The Evolution Of The Trough/Closed Low Will Result In Strengthening Midlevel Winds /40-50 Kt/ From Tx Through The Lower Ms/Tn Valleys To Srn Appalachians.

At The Surface...An Area Of Low Pressure Will Track From Ks Into Nrn
Ar/Srn Mo While A Trailing Cold Front Advances S/Sewd Across Ok/Tx.

Meanwhile...A Generally W-E Oriented Surface Boundary Will Advance
Nwd From Nrn Portions Of Ms/Al/Ga Through The Tn Valley Into The Oh Valley This Forecast Period.

South And Central Tx To Lower Ms/Tn Valleys...

Slight Risk Area For Day 2 Has Been Expanded Some Across Southwest And South Central Tx Through The Lower Tn Valley To Account For Greater Confidence For Strong To Severe Tstm Development...

1/ In Little More Of Sern Ok And North Tx Late Monday Morning Into The Afternoon Along And Ahead Of The Cold Front...

2/ Into The Lower Tn Valley Monday Afternoon And Evening...And

3/ Across Portions Of The Edwards Plateau And Tx Hill Country.

A High Theta-E Air Mass Will Reside Across The Slight Risk Area This
Forecast Period As Midlevel Winds/Deep Layer Shear Strengthen With
The Approach Of The Central Plains Trough.

Greater Moistening/ Destabilization Is Expected Into The Lower Tn Valley...And Thus Resulted In The Nern Extension Of The Slight Risk Area.

Outflow Boundaries From Sunday Night/Early Monday Morning Mcs/S ...Subsequent Differential Heating Boundaries...And Invof The Cold Front Will Provide The Foci For New Tstm Development During Day 2.

These Factors Will Support The Potential For Organized Storms With
Damaging Winds And Hail The Primary Threats.

Farther Swwd Into South Central Tx To Edwards Plateau...Forcing For
Ascent Is Expected To Be Weaker...But Very Steep Midlevel Lapse
Rates And Moderate-Strong Instability Should Prove Favorable For
Tstm Development.

Activity May Tend To Develop Along Any Swd Moving Outflow Boundaries From Sunday Night Mcs In North Tx And Eventually Along The Cold Front Advancing Into This Region.

Strengthening Nwly Flow Aloft Atop Sely Low Level Winds Will Result In Bulk Shear Supportive For Organization And Some Supercell Structures.

Weak Forcing Aloft May Tend To Limit...At Least...Initial Storm Coverage With Large Hail...Some Exceeding 2 Inch Diameter...And Damaging Winds.

However...A Tornado Cannot Be Ruled Out...Given Low-Level
Vertically-Veering Winds...But Weak Winds May Temper This Threat.

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Tue Jun 10 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Areas Of Thunderstorms...Some Strong...Are Expected From The Texas Gulf Coast Into The Ohio Valley...As Well As Across Parts Of The
Carolinas.

Hail And Gusty Winds Will Be Possible With Stronger Storms During The Afternoon And Evening.

An Upper Low Located Over Srn Mo Tuesday Morning Will Track Ne
Toward The Ohio Valley By 12z Wednesday.

Sfc Low Moving In Tandem With Upper Low Will Bring A Cold Front E/Se Across The Ozarks And Portions Of The Mid/Lower Ms Valley... With The Southern Extent Of This Front Will Becoming Stalled Across Srn Tx.

To The South And East Of These Features...A Very Moist Airmass Will Be In Place And Widespread Thunderstorms Are Expected To Be Ongoing And Develop Ewd From The Mid Ms Valley Into The Oh/Tn Valley.

An Upper Level Ridge Will Be In Place Along And East Of The Atlantic
Coast. But A Sfc Trough East Of The Appalachians Across Parts Of The Piedmont From Cntrl Va Swd Into Sc...May Provide Enough Focus For Isolated Strong To Severe Thunderstorm Development During The
Afternoon.

Elsewhere...Thunderstorms Will Increase Over The Nrn Rockies... Where A Shortwave Trough Will Migrate Across The Region Into The Nrn Plains By Wednesday Morning.

Oh/Tn Valleys...

Quite A Bit Of Uncertainty Continues Into The Day 3 Period.

Deterministic Guidance All Evolve The Upper Low Slightly Differently
In Both Timing And Placement In Addition To The Added Difficulty Of
Potential Ongoing Convection At The Beginning Of The Period Just To
The South And West Of The Region.

However...A Very Moist Boundary Layer Is Expected To Be In Place With Dew Point From The Mid To Upper 60s.

Depending On Degree Of Daytime Heating...At Least Weak Destabilization Should Occur...With Adequate Lapse Rates For At
Least A Marginal Wind/Hail Threat.

As The Synoptic Cold Front Pushes Ewd Overnight...Linear Convection Could Move Across This Area...Posing Mainly A Wind Threat.

Given Uncertainty In Model Guidance And With Respect To Periods Of Convection Leading Into The Day 3 Time Frame...Will Introduce Only Low Probabilities At This Time.

Cntrl Nc/Sc Into E-Cntrl Ga...

Thunderstorm Coverage Will Be Limited By Capping And Generally
Weak/Unfocused Forcing Mechanisms.

However...Strong Diurnal Heating And A Very Moist Boundary Layer Could Lead To A Few Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Into The Afternoon Hours.

Steep Lapse Rates And High Pw Values Will Result In Both A Hail And Wind Threat With Any Stronger Storms.

S Tx Newd Into Sw Ms...

With The Upper Trough Axis Shifting To The East Of The Region By
Afternoon...Forcing For Ascent Will Remain Weak Over The Area...And
Thunderstorm Coverage May Be Limited.

However...Strong Heating And A Very Warm/Moist Airmass Will Lead To Strong Destabilization During The Afternoon.

Furthermore...The Cold Front Will Be Tracking Ewd Across E Tx Into La And Serve As A Focus For Thunderstorm Develop During The Afternoon.

Isolated Strong To Severe Storms Capable Of Producing Hail And Gusty Winds Will Be Possible.

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Jun 11-15 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Several Periods Of Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Will Be Possible
From The Plains Into The Oh/Tn Valleys This Period.

On Wednesday/Day 4...
The Upper Trough Over The Ms Valley Will Lift Ne Across The Oh
Valley...Bringing With It An Attendant Risk Of Severe Storms.

But The Overall Threat Should Be Limited With This Weakening... Ill-Focused System.

Further Upstream Across The Nrn Plains...An Amplifying Shortwave Trough Moving Into The Upper Midwest Will Bring Widespread Thunderstorm Activity To Parts Of The Nrn And Central Plains.

One Or More Mcs/S Could Develop Out Of This System Wednesday Afternoon Into The Overnight...But Guidance Differs Quite A Bit With Regards To The Strength Of The System And Where Better Thermodynamics And Kinematics May Align.

A Progressive Northern Branch Will Continue Through The Period... And Another Shortwave Trough Will Bring Unsettled Weather To Portions Of The Plains And Upper Midwest In The Day 6/7 Time Frame.

However...Models Vary Greatly Beginning Around This Time With Regards To The Evolution Of This Feature So Where Any Focused Severe Threat May Evolve Is Unclear.


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