Severe Weather Threat thru Jul 19

Fri Jul 12 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms For Portions of Sd...Mn...Sern Nd...

Nrn Plains/Upper Midwest...

Cold Front Should Be Primary Focus For Tstm Potential Late This Aftn
Into Evening. Frontal Lift Impinging On This Regime Should Suffice For Initially Widely Scattered Tstms...Evolving Into At Least Bkn Line...With Potential For Sporadic Hail And Damaging Gusts.

By Late Aftn...Some Supercell Character Is Possible With Relatively
Early/Discrete Convection From Nrn Mn Into Nern Sd...Locally
Enhancing Hail Risk. Damaging-Gust Potential Will Last Somewhat
Longer Into Evening And Extend Further E Over Mn...Though Overall
Svr Threat Should Diminish Overnight As Nocturnal Cooling Deepens
Statically Stable Layer Near Sfc. At Least Mrgl Aftn/Early Evening
Threat For Damaging Gusts Will Extend Swwd Over Portions Neb Into
Sern Wy/Nern Co Near Front.


Isolated To Widely Scattered Tstms May Develop This Aftn...Initially
Over Mtns Of Central/Wrn Mt...Offering Isolated Threat For Svr Wind/ Hail ...Then Shifting/Spreading Generally Enewd Before Weakening
Late Evening And Overnight.

Central Appalachians To Gulf Coast...

Widely Scattered To Scattered Tstms Should Develop In This Corridor
This Aftn...Offering Isolated Large Hail Mainly Over Central/Srn
Appalachians Region. Gusts Mainly Below 50-Kt Svr Level -- But
Still Capable Of Toppling Some Trees -- Are Possible Over Those
Areas And Swwd Toward Gulf Coast. Convective Coverage And Isolated Svr Potential Each Should Diminish Considerably After Dark As Boundary Layer Stabilizes.

Sat Jul 13 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms For Dakotas And Nwrn Mn....

At The Surface...A Sw/Ne Oriented Quasi-Stationary Front Will Be
Located From Srn Mt Across Nd Into Nwrn Ontario Along The Srn Edge Of Stronger Flow Aloft. The Effective Boundary May Be Modulated By Convection During The Day 1 Period Over The Nrn Plains/Upper Midwest. This Is Expected To Provide A Primary Focus For Strong Convection During The Period. A Lee Trough Is Forecast To Extend Across The Nrn And Central High Plains To The South Of The Front.

Dakotas Into Nwrn Mn...

The Cap Is Expected To Weaken During The Afternoon With Subsequent Storm Development Occurring After 20-21z. Stronger Deep Layer Shear Across Nwrn Sd...Nd And Nwrn Mn Will Be Sufficient To Enhance Storm Organization And Intensity...Including Development Of A Few Supercells And Short Line Segments. Stronger Cells Will Be Capable Of Large Hail...Damaging Winds And Possibly A Tornado Or Two Associated With More Discrete Supercells. Activity Is Likely To Spread Ewd/Newd Through The Evening Hours As A 35-40 Kt Sswly Low Level Jet Develops From Central Neb Into Nern Mn. Storm Intensity And Associated Severe Threats Are Expected To Decrease After 06z As Boundary Layer Cooling/Stabilization Occur.

Lower Oh/Tn Valleys Across The Mid South...

A Few Strong/Severe Storms Capable Of Generating Hail And Locally Strong Wind Gusts Will Be Possible Mainly During The Afternoon And Early Evening.

Sun Jul 14 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms For Parts Of Nrn High Plains....

Large Scale Flow Pattern Is Forecast To Change Little During The
Period With Stronger Westerly Winds Aloft Continuing From The Nwrn
States Across South Central/Sern Canada. This Will Be Located To
The North Of An Extensive Ridge Arcing From The Srn Plateau And
Central Rockies To A Closed Anticyclone Centered Over The Upper Oh Valley. To The South Of The Ridge...An Upper Low Is Forecast To
Move Wwd Into The Srn Plains.

At The Surface...A Front Extending From Nwrn Mn/Central Sd/Nwrn Neb Then Nwwd Across Nern Wy Into Central Mt Is Forecast To Gradually Shift Nwwd As Surface Pressures Fall Over Mt.

Nrn High Plains...

Orographic Lift And Low Level Convergence Near The Front Should Be Sufficient For Isolated To Widely Scattered Thunderstorms To Develop During The Late Afternoon And Evening. Strong Directional Shear Will Enhance Storm Organization With Potential For Isolated Supercells And Organized Multicell Storms. There Will Be A Threat For A Few Damaging Wind Gusts And Large Hail Reports With Stronger Cells.

Srn Ok/Nrn Tx...

Scattered Storms Are Expected To Increase In Coverage By Early Afternoon Within A Moist Environment Characterized By Pw Values Of 1.5-1.75 In. Isolated Cells May Have Potential To Produce Hail And Strong Wind Gusts But Overall Coverage Of Severe Storm Threat Is Uncertain Attm. Thus...Will Introduce A 5% Severe Probability But Will Need To Monitor The Evolution Of The Upper Low For Signs Of An Increased Severe Threat In Future Outlooks.

Jul 15-19 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Large Scale Pattern Is Forecast To Change Slowly During Days 4
Through 6 /Mon Jul 15 Through Wed Jul 17/ As Stronger Westerly Winds Remain Confined To The Nrn Border Region With Fast Moving Low Amplitude Perturbations Moving Through The Flow.

The Slow Moving Upper Low Over The Srn High Plains On Day 4 Is Expected To Drift Swwd And Weaken...While The Persistent Ridge Over The Oh Valley/Middle Atlantic States Is Forecast To Weaken Late In The Period On Days 7-8 /Thu Jul 18 - Fri Jul 19/. This Is Expected To Occur In Response To Amplification Of A Ridge Over The Nrn Rockies With Broad Downstream Height Falls Over The Nern States.

The Pattern Change Should Result In A Cold Front Sagging Swd Across The Great Lakes And Nern States With An Increase In Organized Convective Potential Over These Areas Late In The Forecast Period.

However...Variability In The Magnitude Of The Height Falls And The
Swd Extent Of Stronger Nw Flow Aloft Over The Nern Us Is Evident In
Medium Range Models/Ensemble Solutions...And When Coupled With Uncertainty In The Thermodynamic Environment A Week In
Advance...Predictability Appears Too Low To Delineate A 30% Or
Greater Severe Probability Area Attm.

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