Severe Weather Threat thru Jul 12

Sat Jul 5 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for Ern Nd Into Nrn Mn...

A Severe Weather Risk Including The Potential For Large Hail And Damaging Winds Will Exist Across The Northern Plains Mainly Saturday Late Afternoon And Night.

A Broad Ridge Over The Western States Will Amplify Slightly Today... While A Shortwave Moving Across S-Cntrl Canada And The Nrn Plains Moves Into The Mid/Upper Ms Valley. Deep Layer Flow Will Increase Across The Nrn Plains/Upper Midwest In Response To This
Feature. A Sfc Trough Will Extend S/Swwd Across Nrn Plains Into The
Cntrl/Srn High Plains And A Cold Front Will Shift E/Sewd Across The
Dakotas Overnight.

Nrn Plains...

Low Level Convergence Along A Pre-Frontal Sfc Trough Will Increase
Through The Day As Sly Low Level Flow Helps To Maintain Mid/Upper
60s Dew Points Across The Region. While Strong Sfc Heating Is
Expected...Resulting In Moderate To Strong Instability By The Afternoon ... Neutral To Slightly Warming 850-700 Mb Temperatures
Could Pose Some Capping Issues.

Deep Layer Flow Will Be Stronger Than On Friday...Around 25-35 Kt...Which Would Favor Organized...Rotating Storms Should They Develop During The Afternoon In The Warm Sector. Large Hail And Strong Winds Would Be The Main Threat.

While Convective Development Could Remain Sparse/Conditional
Through The Afternoon...As The Sfc Cold Front Drops E/Se Into The
Dakotas...Better Focus And Forcing May Result In More Widespread
Development. Acting As A Linear Forcing Mechanism In Conjunction
With Increasing Llj...Upscale Growth May Occur As Storms Track Into
Ern Nd/Nw Mn Through The Overnight Hours.

Portions Of The Mid-Mo Valley/Cntrl Plains...

Elevated Storms Will Likely Be Ongoing At The Beginning Of The
Period Across Ern Neb...Ia And Nw Mo...Posing A Marginal Hail
Threat. Storms May Linger During The Morning Before Increasing Again During The Afternoon With Increasing Destabilization As Storms Track Ewd On The Nose Of Developing Llj In Waa Regime. Lack Of Stronger Forcing For Ascent Will Limit Overall Organization ... But A Marginal Wind/Hail Threat Could Persist Into The Night.


Sun Jul 6 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for Upper Ms River Valley/Midwest...

Severe Thunderstorms Capable Of Damaging Thunderstorm Wind Gusts And Severe Hail Will Be Possible Across Parts Of The Upper Mississippi River Valley And Midwest On Sunday.

Gradual Large-Scale Pattern Amplification Is Expected To Occur On
Sunday...With Dual Amplifying Troughs Over The Central Canadian
Prairies As Well As Northern Ontario And The Great Lakes Region.
This Will Be As An Upper Ridge Shifts A Bit Westward Over The Great
Basin. A Southeastward-Moving Cold Front Will Be A General Focus For Thunderstorm Development Across The Upper Ms River Valley/Great Lakes Region And Likely The Central Plains On Sunday.

Upper Ms River Valley/Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...

It Appears That A Small Mcs /Or The Remnants Thereof/ Will Be Across Northern Mn/Lake Superior Vicinity Sunday Morning...In Addition To The Potential For Other Convection To Be Occurring Across Parts Of The Midwest Including Il/Indiana. Some Of This Convection May Be A Factor In Terms Of Cloud Cover/Differential Heating...But As A Cold Front Continues To Spread Southeastward Across The Region...At Least Widely Scattered Surface-Based Thunderstorm Development Should Occur By Afternoon/Early Evening Near The Front. This Will Be Aided By Weak Height Falls And Possibly An Embedded Shortwave Trough/Convectively-Induced Vort Max Or Two.

On The Fringe Of Residual Early Day Thicker Cloud Cover And Any Possible Outflow...The Boundary Layer Near/Ahead Of The Front Will
Aggressively Destabilize By Afternoon. As Much As 3000-5000 J/Kg Of
Mlcape Will Be Possible Within A Moist Pre-Frontal Environment
Across Ia Into Wi/Southeast Mn And Far Northern Il.

Where Storms Develop/Mature...Around 40 Kt Of Effective Shear Will Allow For Both Supercells And Well-Sustained Southeastward-Moving Line Segments Capable Of Severe Hail And Damaging Winds Into The Evening Hours.

Central Plains/Middle Mo River Valley...

A Cold Front Will Generally Spread South-Southeastward Across The Region On Sunday...But Overall Forcing For Ascent Will Remain Modest Coincident With Relatively Strong Capping /Increasing With West-Southwestward Extent.

While The Spatial Coverage/Likelihood Of Deep Convective Development Is Not Certain...Any Sustained Tstm Development That Occurs Near/Just Behind The Front Could Pose A Severe Hail/Locally Damaging Wind Risk Across The Middle Mo Valley/Central Plains. This Would Be In The Presence Of Moderate To Strong Buoyancy /2500-4000 J Per Kg Mlcape Across The Middle Mo Valley/ And Modest Vertical Shear /25-30 Kt Or Less Of Effective Shear/.

A Couple Of Strong/Possibly Severe Tstms Could Occur As Far West As The Central High Plains Saturday Late Afternoon/Evening Within A Post-Frontal Low-Level Upslope Regime.


Although Upper-Level Forcing/Steering Flow Will Be Relatively Weak ... A Moist/Modestly Unstable Environment May Support Some Downbursts/Locally Strong Wind Gusts Sunday Afternoon/Evening.


Mon Jul 7 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for Middle Mo Valley...

Isolated Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Capable Of Damaging Winds And Some Hail Are Expected Across Portions Of The Ohio Valley And Northeast United States On Monday.

Other...Potentially More Organized...Severe Thunderstorms Are Expected To Occur Monday Late Afternoon And Night Across Portions Of The Middle Missouri River Valley.

Longwave Pattern Amplification Will Continue To Occur Through Monday...With Increasingly Prevalent Cyclonic Westerlies Over The North-Central/Northeast Conus.

Middle Mo Valley...

A Cold Front Is Expected To Spread Southeastward And Gradually
Overtake A Quasi-Stationary Frontal Boundary And Associated Corridor Of Relatively Rich Moisture Monday Afternoon/Night.

Probable Surface-Based Tstm Development Will Be Aided By An
Amplifying/Southeast-Spreading Shortwave Trough And Associated Speed Maxima...With Aforementioned Frontal Uplift Contributing To Tstm Development Especially Across Parts Of Eastern Sd And East/Central Neb Into Ia/Southern Mn/Northern Mo By Late Afternoon And Evening.

Some Supercells Capable Of Large Hail/Perhaps A Tornado Will Initially Be Possible...But Storms May Grow Upscale Into A Southeastward-Moving Mcs Capable Of Damaging Winds Monday Night.

Oh Valley/Northeast States...

Under The Influence Of Moderately Strong Westerlies Aloft...Multiple
Corridors Of Strong/Severe Tstms Should Develop/Increase Monday
Afternoon Within A Relatively Moist Environment Across The Region.

Bouts Of Locally Damaging Winds And Some Severe Hail Can Be

Pending Subsequent Details...Portions Of The Region Could Warrant A Slight Risk Upgrade.

Southern Az...

Somewhat Stronger Easterly Steering Flow May Overspread Portions Of The Southern Az On Monday...As A Relatively Moist Air Mass Otherwise Remains In Place. Downbursts/Locally Damaging Winds Will Be Possible Particularly Late Monday Afternoon/Evening.


Jul 8-12 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Large-Scale Trough Amplification Is Expected Over Ontario/Quebec And The Great Lakes Region Early Next Week...With Increasingly Prevalent Cyclonic Westerlies Coincident With A Southward-Sagging Frontal Zone.

A Moist/Unstable Environment Will Exist Along/South Of The Front ... Supporting A Probable Severe Risk Including Severe Hail/Damaging Winds.

Such A Severe Risk /Probable Categorical Slight/ Includes The Oh Valley On Day 4/Tuesday...Although Uncertain Mesoscale/Embedded Shortwave Details Preclude A 30 Percent Severe Risk Delineation At This Time.

As The Front Shifts Slowly Southward...A Severe Wind/Hail Risk May Exist On Day 5/Wednesday Across The Tn Valley.

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