Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 8

Wed Jan 1 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

The First Day Of The New Year Will See A Very Limited Convective
Potential Across The Conus...With Little If Any Tstm Potential.

This Will Be As Large Scale Trough Amplification Occurs Over The
Plains/Mo River Valley.

Showers Are Expected Over The Open Waters Of The Gulf Of Mexico To Fl Peninsula/Eventually Adjacent Atlantic As Warm Advection Persists And Moisture Begins To Return Northward.

However...Thermodynamic Characteristics Will Generally Not Be
Conducive For Tstms Inland/Immediately Adjacent Waters...Especially
Given Relatively Weak Forcing And The Likelihood Of A Residual
Mid-Level Inversion Across The Fl Peninsula.


Thu Jan 2 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move From The Ms Valley Into The Oh And
Tn Valleys On Thursday.

At The Sfc...A Low Will Move Into The Cntrl Appalachian Mtns As A Cold Front Advances Ewd Across The Cntrl And Ern Gulf Coast States.

A Pre-Frontal Trough Is Forecast To Develop Across Cntrl Fl As The Front Approaches Which Could Be A Focus For Convective Development Thursday Afternoon.

A Few Thunderstorms May Develop In Cntrl Fl Late Thursday Afternoon As Instability Maximizes.

However...Instability Should Remain Too Weak For A Severe Threat.

Elsewhere...Thunderstorm Development Is Not Expected Across The Conus Thursday And Thursday Night.


Fri Jan 3 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Shortwave Trough Is Forecast To Move From The Srn Appalachians Ewd Across The Carolinas On Friday As Another Upper-Level Trough Digs Sewd Across The Srn And Cntrl Rockies.

At The Sfc...A Cold Front Should Advance Swd Across Srn Fl And The Fl Keys.

Some Showers May Be Ongoing Along The Boundary Friday Morning But This Activity Should Move South Of The Fl Keys By Afternoon.

Elsewhere Across The Conus...Thunderstorms Are Not Expected To Develop Friday And Friday Night.


Jan 4-8 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With A Broad Low-Amplitude Upper-Level Trough Over The Ncntrl U.S. And Dig This Feature Sewd Into The Srn Plains From Saturday/Day 4 Into Saturday Night.

Low-Level Moisture Return Ahead Of The System Is Forecast To Be Marginal With Sfc Dewpoints In The 50s F Across The Lower Ms Valley And Lower 60s F Possible Near The Coast Of La...Ms And Al.

Thunderstorm Development May Occur Ahead Of The Trough Along A Cold Front In The Tn Valley And Cntrl Gulf Coast Sates Late Sunday
Afternoon/Day 5.

The Potential For Thunderstorm Should Shift Ewd Into The Carolinas ...Ga And Fl Sunday Night Into Monday/Day 6.

Although A Severe Threat Can Not Be Ruled Out Across The Sern U.S...Instability Is Forecast To Be Weak Across The Ern Gulf Coast
States And Fl Early Next Week.

For This Reason...Will Not Issue An Outlook Area.

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