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Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 5

Sun Dec 29 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Shortwave Trough Located Over The Northeastern U.S. Early Sunday Evening Will Move To The Canadian Maritime Provinces By Daybreak Monday.

A Trailing Cold Front Has Pushed Off The Carolina Coast And Will Continue Sewd Through Srn Portions Of The Fl Peninsula Tonight.

Neutral To Slightly Rebounding Mid-Level Heights Associated With The Departing Nern U.S. Disturbance...Weakening Frontal Lift...And
Meager Lapse Rates Over S Fl Will Relegate Any Convective Potential
To The Fl Keys Vicinity And Adjacent Coastal Waters In The Form Of A
Few Showers And Perhaps A Weak Tstm Overnight.

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Mon Dec 30 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Long-Wave Upper Trough Is Forecast To Remain Established Over The U.S. This Period...With Cyclonic Flow Affecting Nearly The Entire
Country.

While From A Smaller-Scale Perspective An Ewd Shift In The Main Trough Axis Will Occur...As Short-Wave Energy Races Ewd From The High Plains To The Lower Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Region...The Larger-Scale Longwave Troughing Will Be Reinforced On The Wrn Fringe As Short-Wave Energy Begins To Spread Sewd Into The Pac Nw/Nrn Intermountain Region Late.

At The Surface...Continental Polar Air Will Prevail Across Most Of
The Country In The Wake Of A Cold Front Moving Ewd Across The Wrn
Atlantic And Swd Through The Gulf Of Mexico.

Where This Front Lingers Inland -- I.E. Across S Fl Through The First Half Of The Period -- Isolated Deep Moist Convection /Including Perhaps A Thunderstorm Or Two/ Will Be Possible.

Otherwise...Thunder Risk Across The U.S. Will Remain Negligible Through The Period.

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Mon Dec 31 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Off The East Coast On Tuesday As A Cold Front Moves Across South Fl.

Sfc High Pressure Will Be In Place Across The Ern Third Of The U.S.

This Will Reinforce Nly Flow Along The Gulf Coast Impeding Moisture Return.

For This Reason...Thunderstorm Activity Is Not Expected Across The Conus On Tuesday Or Tuesday Night.

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Jan 1-5 Convective Outlook

A Low Amplitude Large-Scale Upper-Level Trough Is Forecast To Be
Located Across The Cntrl U.S. On Wednesday/Day 4.

This Trough Is Forecast To Move Across The Oh And Tn Valleys On Thursday With Northwest Flow Being Reinforced Behind The System.

Because Of This...Cold Dry Sfc High Pressure Is Forecast To Move Sewd Into The Cntrl And Ern States From Thursday/Day 5 Through Saturday/Day 7.

Due To Nly Flow Across Much Of The Ern Half Of The Conus...Rich Moisture Should Remain Locked In Place Across The Gulf Of Mexico.

This Will Make Thunderstorm Development Unlikely Across Most Of The Conus During The Day 4 To 8 Period.


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