Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 4

Sat Dec 28 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Ne Gulf Coast And Se Atlantic Coast Tonight...

An Initially Slow-Moving Midlevel Trough Over W Tx Will Accelerate
Enewd To The Tn Valley By Early Sunday...In Response To Upstream
Height Falls Across The Nrn Plains And Rockies.

Associated Surface Cyclogenesis Is Expected By Early Tonight Along A Baroclinic Zone Over The Ne Gulf Of Mexico...And This Low Will Develop Newd To The Sc Piedmont By 29/12z Based On A Multi-Model Consensus.

Meanwhile...A Modifying Air Mass Is Present In The Warm Sector Of
The Incipient Cyclone...With Boundary Layer Dewpoints Ranging From The Mid 60s In Central Fl And The Ne Gulf...To Near 70 Across
Extreme S Fl And The Se Gulf. This Moistening Air Mass Will Spread
Nwd Across Fl To Se Ga And Coastal Sc By Sunday Morning.

As Is Typical Of Winter Scenarios Across The Se States...Midlevel
Lapse Rates Will Be Rather Poor...Which Will Limit Buoyancy.

Still...There Will Be A Zone With Some Potential Overlap Of Strong
Vertical Shear And Near-Surface-Based Instability...Where Convection
Is Expected Tonight With Strong Low-Level Waa. Thus...There Will Be
A Risk For Isolated Strong/Damaging Gusts And Perhaps A Tornado.

However...These Risks Will Be Tempered By The Likely Persistence Of A Near-Surface Stable Layer Related To Rain Falling Into The Cp Air Mass Now Present Over The Se States.


Sun Dec 29 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Far Ne Fl/Se Ga/Ern Sc And Ern Nc...

A Shortwave Trough Will Move Across The Gulf Coast States On Sunday.

Ahead Of The Trough...A Well-Developed 40 To 50 Kt Low-Level Jet
Over The Carolinas Will Move Newd During The Day.

At The Sfc...A Low In Nrn Sc At 12z Is Forecast To Move Newd Across Nc With The Warm Sector Established From The Coast Of Sc Newd To Cape Hatteras Nc...Where Sfc Dewpoints Are Forecast To Be In The Lower To Mid 60s F.

The Nam And Gfs Solutions At Daybreak Sunday Show Numerous
Thunderstorms Along The Axis Of The Low-Level Jet From Sern Ga
Extending Nnewd Across Sc. The Models Move This Convection Newd
Along The Coast Of Nc During The Late Morning And Early Afternoon.

Forecast Soundings At 15z To 18z From Charleston Sc Newd To Cape
Hatteras Show Mlcape In The 500 To 800 J/Kg Range With 50 Kt Of 0-6 Km Shear. This Along With Long And Looped Hodographs /0-3 Km Srh Of 400 To 600 M2/S2/ Should Enable Some Storms To Rotate.

Due To The Strong Low-Level Shear...A Marginal Tornado Threat Should Exist During The Morning And Early Afternoon Across The Area.


Mon Dec 30 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Across The Ms Valley On Monday.

At The Sfc...A Stationary Front Should Be Located Across Scntrl Fl.

Thunderstorms May Develop South Of The Boundary Monday Afternoon In South Fl Where Sfc Dewpoints Should Be In The 60s F. This Activity Is Not Expected To Be Severe.

Over Most Of The Conus...A Cold Dry Airmass Will Be In Place As Sfc High Pressure Settles Into The Cntrl U.S.

This Will Impede Moisture Return And Thunderstorm Activity Is Not Anticipated Over The Remainder Of The Conus Monday And Monday


Dec 31 – Jan 4 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

The Medium Range Models Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period With A Shortwave Trough Along The East Coast Embedded In A Large-Scale Upper-Level Trough Over The Cntrl And Ern U.S.

The Models Move The Shortwave Trough Into The Atlantic On Tuesday/Day 4 And Keep The Large-Scale Upper-Level Trough In Place Through Wednesday/Day 5.

At The Sfc On Wednesday...High Pressure Dominates Across The Cntrl And Ern States Impeding Moisture Return.

On Thursday/Day 6...The Gfs And Ecmwf Solutions Amplify The Large-Scale Trough With The Trough Moving Ewd Into The Ms Valley.

On Thursday And Friday/Day 7...Northwest Flow In The Cntrl States Will Probably Keep Sfc High Pressure In Place Across Much Of The Ern Half Of The Nation.

This Weather Pattern In The Day 4 To 8 Period Appears Unfavorable For Severe Thunderstorms.

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