Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 26

Sun Jan 19 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A No Tstm Forecast Will Persist Through This Forecast Period Across
The Conus As The Air Mass Remains Hostile To Tstm Development.

A Strong Shortwave Trough That Moved Through The Southeast U.S.
Earlier Today Will Continue To Move Ewd Over The Wrn Atlantic Waters Away From The East Coast.

Attendant Tstms With This Trough Will Also Concurrently Move Farther Away From The Ern Seaboard.


Mon Jan 20 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Sewd Into The Upper Ms Valley And
Cntrl Plains On Monday As Northwest Flow Becomes Re-Established In The Nrn And Cntrl Plains Behind The Trough.

At The Sfc...A Cold Front Will Advance Sewd Across The Mid Ms Valley And Srn Plains As A 1040 Mb High Settles Into The Nrn Plains.

Ahead Of The Front In The Gulf Coast States...Sfc Winds Should Be South To Southwesterly Allowing For Low-Level Moisture To Increase Across Se Tx And Srn La During The Day.

As The Front Moves Sewd Into The Lower Ms Valley Early Monday Evening...A Few Showers May Develop Along Or Ahead Of The Boundary But Lightning Strikes Are Not Expected.

Elsewhere Across The Conus...Thunderstorm Activity Is Not Forecast Monday Or Monday Night.


Tue Jan 21 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Blocking Synoptic Pattern Characterized By An Upper Ridge Over The
Wrn States And A Downstream Amplifying Trough East Of The Rockies Will Persist This Period.

A Cold Front From The Carolinas Swwd Into The Wrn Gulf Early Tuesday Will Advance Sewd Through The Gulf And The Fl Peninsula...Exiting The Srn Tip Of Fl Late Tuesday Night.

Cntrl Through Srn Fl...

Only Partially Modified Gulf Air With 55f To Near 60f Dewpoints Will
Advect Through The Pre-Frontal Warm Sector And Into The Srn Half Of
The Fl Peninsula.

Due To Expected Weak Mid-Level Lapse Rates...Instability Will Remain Very Marginal And Shallow With Elevated Temperatures Above -10c.

A Few Showers May Develop Ahead Of The Swd Moving Cold Front... But The Expected Thermodynamic Environment Appears Unfavorable For Thunderstorm Activity.


Jan 22-26 Convective Outlook

Deterministic Gfs...Ecmwf...And Gefs And Ecmwf Ensemble Members
Maintain The Blocking Pattern Characterized By The P-N Anomaly Over The U.S. Through Days 4-8.

This Regime Will Promote Several Intrusions Of Cp Air Across The Ern Half Of The Country And At Times Into The Gulf Of Mexico... Limiting The Return Of Gulf Moisture Inland And Resulting In A Negligible Threat For Severe Storms.

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