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Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 25

Sat Jan 18 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Recent Moisture-Channel Imagery Reveals Three Mid-Level Shortwave Impulses Progressing Through The Flow Around An Ern-North-America Longwave Trough:

1/ One Shortwave Trough Emerging Over The Mid Atlantic Will Move
Newd Off The Coast.

Minimal Buoyancy Within The Warm Conveyor Belt Preceding The Impulse Could Glance The Ne And Support An Isolated Lightning Strike Or Two Over Sern Ny/Long Island And Srn New England Today.

More Substantial Buoyancy Will Remain Well Offshore And Preclude General Thunder Delineation.

2/ Another Impulse Moving Sewd Across Portions Of Ern Sd/Srn Mn
Will Take A Cyclonically Curved Trajectory Through The Lower Great
Lakes And Ohio Valley Region.

Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates Beneath the Attendant Cold Core May Support A Lightning Strike Or Two Within The Narrow Corridor Of Dcva Preceding The Impulse.

However...The Paucity Of Tropospheric Moisture Will Limit Buoyancy Such That Thunderstorms Will Be Unlikely.

This Same Impulse Will Be Associated With A Sfc Boundary That Is
Forecast To Reach The Cntrl/Wrn Gulf Coast Vicinity By Late Tonight.

The Return Of Poorly Modified Gulf Moisture In Advance Of The
Boundary Will Support Meager Elevated Buoyancy And Perhaps A Band Of Strongly Forced Yet Shallow Convection Over Parts Of The Nrn Gulf Coast Region Tonight.

Convection Is Not Forecast To Extend Sufficiently Deep Into Icing Layers Aloft To Support Thunderstorms.

3/ Another Disturbance Will Dig Ssewd From Manitoba Into Ontario... With An Accompanying Mid-Level Jet Streak Nosing Into The Lake Superior/Mi Upper Peninsula Region Late Tonight.

Convectively Enhanced Snow Bands Will Likely Extend E/Se From Mid Lake.

However...Cold Water Temperatures And Ice Cover Will Limit Low-Level Lapse Rates/Buoyancy To Greatly Mitigate The Thunderstorm Potential.

Elsewhere...A High-Amplitude Mid-Level Ridge Will Gradually Flatten
Over The W...And Thunderstorms Will Be Unlikely Given Convectively
Stable Thermodynamic Profiles.

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Sun Jan 19 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Blocking Synoptic Pattern Will Persist Through Sunday Over The U.S.
With An Upper Ridge Over The Wrn States And A Broad Upper Trough
East Of The Rockies.

Wv Imagery Currently Shows A Shortwave Trough Dropping Into The Nrn Plains...And This Feature Will Continue Ssewd Into The Base Of The Synoptic Trough And The Nrn Gulf Coastal Area Early Sunday Accompanied By A Weak Cold Front.

Nern Gulf Coastal Area...

Another Intrusion Of Cp High Pressure Into The Gulf Is Currently
Underway.

As This Feature Shifts Ewd Later Saturday...Near Sfc Winds Will Return To Swly Across The Wrn And Nrn Gulf Resulting In Modified Cp Air /Dewpoints In The 40s/ Returning Nwd And Newd Through The Cntrl And Nern Gulf Coastal Area Early Sunday Morning.

Meanwhile...Forcing For Ascent And Steeper Mid-Level Lapse Rates
Accompanying The Sewd Advancing Shortwave Trough Will Intercept The Moist Axis Resulting In Scant Instability And A Threat For A Few
Showers...Mainly From The Fl Panhandle Through Nrn Fl Early Sunday.

While A Few Lightning Strikes Cannot Be Ruled Out With This Activity ...Coverage Will Probably Remain Less Than 10%.

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Mon Jan 20 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

After Deamplifying Sunday...The Persistent Ern U.S. Synoptic Trough
Will Re-Amplify Monday As Another In A Series Of Impulses Drops Sewd Into The Tn Valley And Sern States Accompanied By A Cold Front.

Owing To A Series Of Cp Air Intrusions Into The Gulf...Low Level
Moisture And Instability Will Remain Very Limited Inland Resulting In Very Low Thunderstorm Prospects.

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Jan 21-25 Convective Outlook

Model Solutions Including Deterministic Runs Of Gfs...Ecmwf...As
Well As Most Gefs And Ecmwf Ensemble Members Maintain The Blocking Pattern Characterized By The P-N Anomaly Over The U.S. Through The 4-8 Period.

This Pattern Will Continue To Promote Intrusions Of Cp Air Across The Ern Half Of The U.S. And At Times Into The Gulf Of Mexico... Limiting The Return Of Gulf Moisture And Resulting In A Negligible Threat For Severe Storms.


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