Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 19

Sun Jan 12 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Srn Tx Into Swrn La...

A Weak Shortwave Trough Will Continue To Move Newd Out Of Nrn Mexico And Across Srn Tx Tonight...Losing Amplitude Across The Sabine River Valley By 12z Monday.

Lift And Moistening Associated With This Feature Will Continue To Support Scattered Rain Showers...With Isolated Weak Thunderstorms As Well.

00z Soundings From Srn Tx Show Moist Midlevels With Sufficient Instability For Isolated Thunderstorms...But Too Weak For Any Severe Threat Favorable Wind Shear Profiles.

An Increase In Storms And Lightning Coverage Could Occur Late In The Period Across Sern Tx/Swrn La And Over The Wrn Gulf Of Mexico As Lapse Rates Steepen Aloft.

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Mon Jan 13 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

The Upper Flow Pattern Is Expected To Become More Amplified On
Monday And Monday Night As A Ridge Builds Across Wrn North America And A Pacific Trough...Now Moving Across The Nrn/Central Rockies Region Evolves Into A Large Scale Trough Downstream Over The Central And Ern States.

Despite General Agreement In The Large Scale... There Continues To Be Model Differences In The Timing Of A Srn Split Shortwave Trough As This Feature Tracks Ese Toward The Lower Ms Valley And Nrn Gulf Coast Region During Day 2.

Meanwhile...A Srn Stream Nrn Mexico Day 1 System Will Remain An Open Wave During Day 2...Weakening As It Tracks Newd Across The Central Gulf Coast States Monday Afternoon.

North Central Gulf Coast Region...

Although Uncertainties Exist With The Timing Of A Shortwave Trough
Into The Gulf Coast Region On Monday...An Additional Limiting Factor
For An Inland Severe Weather Threat Exists With A Lack In Sufficient
Time For Boundary Layer Recovery Over The Gulf Of Mexico In The Wake Of Saturday’s Frontal Passage.

Models Suggest Surface Dewpoints In The Lower 60s Could Reach Coastal Areas From La To The Fl Panhandle.

The Srn Extent Of A Cold Front...Attendant To The Large Scale Trough
Developing East Of The Rockies...Will Advance Ewd Through The Gulf
Coast/Southeast States This Period.

A Frontal Wave...Attendant To The Weakening Srn Stream System... Should Form Along The Front In The Nwrn Gulf Early Monday Morning And Reach Sern La To Swrn Al Monday Afternoon.

Although Destabilization Toward The Gulf Coast Should Be Relatively Weak...Strengthening Deep Layer Wind Fields And Shear Could Prove Favorable For Some Storm Organization...Either With New
Development...And/Or An Ongoing Area Of Storms Over The Nwrn Gulf
Tracking Newd During The Day Monday.

Thus...This Outlook Will Maintain Low Severe Probabilities Invof Of The North Central Gulf Coast.

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Tue Jan 14 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

The Amplified Upper Flow Regime Developing Over The Next Couple Of Days Appears Likely To Persist Through This Forecast Period.

Models Continue To Indicate Substantial Deepening Of Eastern U.S. Upper Troughing...Between The Mississippi Valley And The Appalachians...In Response To The Continued Digging Of A Vigorous Short Wave Impulse Associated With A Reinforcing Cold Intrusion In Lower Levels.

There Remains Considerable Spread Among The Models Concerning Short Wave Developments And Associated Surface Frontal Wave Development In Advance Of This Feature...Along Or East Of The Atlantic Seaboard.

Early Period Thunderstorm Activity...Based Within A Lower/Mid
Tropospheric Warm Advection Regime...May Not Be Out Of The Question Along The Mid Atlantic Coast.

Other Isolated Thunderstorm Activity May Remain Possible Ahead Of A Cold Front Expected To Advance Southeastward Across Florida Tuesday Into Tuesday Night...Mainly Near Coastal Areas.

However...At This Time...Weak Instability Over Inland Areas...Along With Diminishing Forcing For Large-Scale Ascent And Vertical Shear All Seem Likely To Preclude An Appreciable Risk For Severe Storms.

Elsewhere Across The Country...Generally Dry/Stable Conditions Are Expected To Maintain Negligible Convective Potential.

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Jan 15-19 Convective Outlook

Medium Range Models Indicate That Amplified Upper Troughing Will
Persist Across The Eastern U.S. Through The Balance Of The Coming Work Week...Before Upper Flow...At Least East Of The Rockies...Trends More Zonal.

In Association With This Regime...A Series Of Reinforcing Cold Fronts Will Inhibit Appreciable Boundary Layer Moistening Over The Gulf Of Mexico And Western Atlantic.

The Development Of A Sustained Southerly Return Flow Does Not Appear Likely Until At Least Late Next Weekend /Across Parts Of The Lower Rio Grande Valley And Western Gulf Coast Region/...And Gulf Boundary Layer Modification Supportive Of A Substantive Inland Moisture Return Probably Will Be Even Slower To Occur.

With Moisture Levels Also Expected To Remain Generally Low Across The West...Convective Potential Appears Low Across The U.S. Through This Forecast Period.


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