Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 14

Tue Jan 7 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Pattern Will Continue To Deamplify Over The Conus Through Wed As
Deep Vortex Now Centered E Of Hudson Bay Retreats Nwd Into Nrn
Labrador And Trailing Vort Lobe Now Extending S Into The Mid-
Atlantic Region Sweeps Rapidly Ne Across The Canadian Maritimes.

Expansive Area Of Largely Subsident Polar/Arctic Air In Wake Of Ern
North American Vortex Will Maintain Dry And/Or Stable Low-Lvl
Environment Unfavorable For Thunder Over Much Of The Nation.

Although The Risk For An Additional C-G Lightning Strike Or Two May
Persist Through This Aftn In Association With Lake-Effect Convective
Plume Downstream From Lk Ont...Inversion Heights Should Decrease With Time As Aforementioned Vort Lobe Moves Beyond Region.

Coupled With An Expected Gradual Decrease In Boundary Layer Lapse Rates...Prospects For Appreciable Lake-Induced Thunder Appear Minimal.


Wed Jan 8 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Negligible Tstm Probabilities Should Persist Into Early Thu Across
Much Of The Conus.

Even So...Air Mass Modification Will Occur Over Fl And Across The Wrn Gulf Coast With A Gradual Increase In Pw Values.

Low-Level Moisture Content Will Be Comparatively Higher Over Fl But Poor Upper-Level Lapse Rates Should Mitigate Potential For Charge Separation.

Weak Low-Level Isentropic Lift Will Contribute To Low-Topped Convective Showers...Generally Confined To Offshore/Coastal Areas Of Srn/Ern Fl.

Farther W...A Series Of Weak Mid-Level Impulses Should Aid In Maintaining A Plume Of Low-Level Waa From The Wrn Gulf Coast To The Arklatex.

Although Scattered Showers Are Anticipated Wed Night...A Dearth Of Buoyancy Will Preclude Tstms.


Thu Jan 9 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Progressive Longwave Pattern Will Be Highlighted By Developing
Split Upper Flow Over The Western States Thursday In Conjunction
With Dual Amplifying Troughs...One Over The Northern Rockies/High
Plains And The Other Over The Southwest States/Northern Mexico.

Air Mass Modification Will Occur Across The South-Central Conus Aided By Southern High Plains Surface Cyclogenesis With Upper 50s/Lower 60s F Surface Dewpoints Gradually Become More Common Across The Southern Half Of Tx.

Southern Plains...

It Appears That Isolated Tstms Will Be Possible Especially Thursday
Night/Early Friday For Areas Such As West-Central/North-Central Tx
Into Parts Of Ok.

Influences Of The Southwest States Upper Trough And Increasing Warm Advection/Elevated Moistening Should Lead To Precipitation Development...With A Sufficient Amount /Albeit Weak/ Of Instability Potentially For Some Tstms Thursday Night Into Early Friday.

No Severe Tstms Are Currently Expected Given Relatively Limited Amounts Of Moisture/Instability.

South Fl Vicinity...

Air Mass Moistening Will Continue To Occur Along/South Of A
Northward-Shifting Maritime Boundary...With Upper 60s F Surface
Dewpoints Becoming Increasingly Common Across The Southern Half Of Fl.

While The Likelihood Of Inland Convection Is Uncertain...Sufficient Lift/Instability May Coincide For Isolated Tstms In The Offshore Waters Of South Fl/Keys Vicinity And/Or In The Nearby Atlantic.


Jan 10-14 Convective Outlook

A Split Upper Flow Regime Will Generally Prevail With A Semi-Progressive/Amplified Southern Stream Over The Southern Tier Of The Conus.

00z-Based Ecmwf/Ukmet/Gefs Remain Quite Varied Regarding The Details Of The Southern Stream...In Particular The Timing/ Progression Of An Upper Trough Over Northern Mexico/Southern Plains To Southeast States This Weekend.

Regardless...As Low-Level Moisture Gradually Increases Across The
South-Central/Southeast Conus Ahead Of This System...Tstms Will Be Increasingly Possible Late This Week.

Although Guidance Variability Does Exist And Moisture Return Will Initially Be Modest...Some Strong/Severe Tstms May Be Possible This Weekend Across The Gulf Coast Region/Southeast States.

Preliminary Thinking Is That Day 6/Sunday Could Pose The Most Organized Severe Potential...But Confidence Is Tempered Given The Aforementioned Guidance Variability And Moisture/Instability Uncertainties.

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