Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 13

Mon Jan 6 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Sporadic Lightning Strikes Detected Around Midday Across Me Have

With The Pre-Frontal Confluence Band Of Convection Embedded Within The Warm Conveyor Belt About To Shift E Into New Brunswick ... Tstm Potential Will Be Negligible Across The Conus Through The Rest Of The Period.

Prev Discussion...

Deep...Elongated Polar Vortex Extending From Hudson Bay Swd Across The Upr Grt Lks Will Pivot Slowly E To A Nw Que-Upstate Ny Axis By 12z Tue As Lead Impulse Now Entering Sw Que Sweeps Rapidly Nne Into Newfoundland.

In The Wake Of The Ern Vortex...The Large-Scale Flow Should Weaken And Back To Wnwly Over The Wrn U.S. And The High Plns.

Sfc Low Associated With Ern Trough Should Further Deepen As It
Continues Nearly Due N Across Cntrl Que.

Strong Cold Front Arcing S From The Low Will Advance Rapidly E Across The Remainder Of New England By The End Of The Day.

Cntrl/S Fl Today...

Mid-Lvl Subsidence Inversion And Weak Low-Lvl Convergence Should
Prohibit Diurnal Storm Development Along Srn Part Of Same Cold Front Affecting New England As That Boundary Crosses The Fl Peninsula Today.


Tue Jan 7 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Quiet Scenario With Respect To Deep Convection Is Anticipated Across The Conus On Tuesday...With Negligible Tstm Potential Given
The Prevalence Of Cold/Stable Conditions.


Wed Jan 8 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Progressive Large-Scale Pattern Will Exist Over The Conus On
Wednesday With Multiple Subtle Low-Amplitude Perturbations/Speed
Maxima Moving Over The Western Two-Thirds Of The Conus.

A Considerably Limited Tstm Potential Will Exist Across The Conus
Given Residual Cold/Continental Trajectories...With The Possible
Exceptions Detailed Below.

East Tx To La/Southern Ar...

Although Numerical Guidance Variability Exists...At Least A Marginal
Potential For Isolated Tstms May Be Possible Wednesday Night/Early
Thursday Across Portions Of The Upper Tx Coast/East Tx Into Northern La And Possibly Far Southern Ar.

Somewhat Pending Timing/Placement Details Of A Low-Amplitude Impulse Over The Southern Rockies...Isentropic Ascent/Weak Elevated Moisture Return Should Support Precipitation Development Wednesday Night.

If Weak Elevated Buoyancy /850 Mb And Above/ Does Materialize /Especially As Per The 00z Nam/...Thermodynamic Profiles Would Be Marginally Supportive Of Embedded/Isolated Tstm Potential.

Far South Fl...

A Few Tstms May Also Be Possible Mainly In The Waters Off The South Fl Coast Wednesday Afternoon/Night In Vicinity Of A
Northward-Shifting Maritime Frontal Boundary.


Jan 9-13 Convective Outlook

A Quasi-Zonal/Progressive Longwave Pattern Will Initially Prevail At
Mid-Week...With A Degree Of Pattern Amplification By The Weekend.

Although Numerical Guidance Is Quite Variable With This System... The Main Focus Will Be On The Amplification/Timing And General Eastward Progression Of A Southern-Stream Trough Over The Southern Tier Of The Conus/Northern Mexico.

As Low-Level Moisture Gradually Increases Across The South-Central Conus Ahead Of This System...Tstms Will Be Possible Initially Across The Southern Plains/Arklatex Late Day 4/Thursday Into Day 5/Friday...And Subsequently Across The Gulf Coast Region/ Southeast States This Weekend.

Some Strong/Severe Tstm Risk May Be Possible Especially By The Weekend Or Early Next Week...But The Extent/Magnitude Of Any Such Potential Remains Uncertain At This Juncture Given Current Guidance Variability And Initially Limited Moisture Return.

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