Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 12

Sun Jan 5 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Arctic Cold Front -- Now Stretching From The Mid Oh To The Lower
Ms Valley -- Will Continue Surging Sewd Across The Srn And Ern U.S.
The Remainder Of The Period...As A Large Trough/Vortex Moves Slowly Ewd Across The Central And Ern Conus.

Showers Are Accompanying The Frontal System...With Other Showers
Ongoing Farther E Near The Carolina Coast...And Near/Just E Of The
Fl Peninsula.

However...All Lightning Is Now Offshore...And Aside From A Stray
Strike Or Two...This Should Remain The Case Through The Rest Of The Period. Thus -- Will Remove All Thunder Areas This Forecast.


Mon Jan 6 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Expansive Upper Trough And Surface High Will Affect The Cntrl And Ern Portions Of The Conus On Monday With Upper Low Centered Over Ontario.

Although The Primary Cold Front Will Be Largely Offshore The E Coast...A Relatively Moist Air Mass Will Remain Over Srn Fl.

However...Midlevel Temperatures And Lack Of Forcing For Ascent
Should Preclude Any Thunderstorms...Although Shallow Convective
Showers May Be Present.


Tue Jan 7 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Very Tranquil Conditions With Respect To Deep Convection Are
Anticipated Across The Conus On Tuesday...With Virtually Nil Tstm
Potential Given The Prevalence Of Cold/Stable Conditions.

The Longwave Pattern Will Trend More Progressive/Zonal Over The
Conus...With A Low-Amplitude Shortwave Trough Likely Moving Inland
Over The Great Basin/Southwest States.

Some Relatively Shallow Convection May Occur Over The Lower Great Lakes And/Or Northwest Conus...But The Potential For Tstms Appears Negligible In The Relative Absence Of Moisture/Instability.


Jan 8-12 Convective Outlook

A Quiet Pattern With Respect To Deep Convective Potential Will
Continue Much Of Next Week Coincident With A Quasi-Zonal/ Progressive Longwave Pattern.

The Widespread Nature Of Very Cold/Stable Conditions Across The Conus Will Considerably Limit Tstm Potential...Although Tstms Will Become Increasingly Probable Across Parts Of The South-Central Conus During The Last Half Of The Week.

This Will Be As A Southern Stream Upper Trough Digs
East-Southeastward Over The Southwest States And Northern
Mexico...With Gradual Low-Level Moistening Across Tx/Lower Ms

Some Strong/Severe Tstm Risk May Be Possible Sometime Next
Weekend /Days 7-8/ Across Parts Of East Tx/Lower Ms Valley...But Any
Such Potential Is Highly Speculative At This Juncture Given Current
Guidance Variability.

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