Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 11

Sat Jan 4 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

In Mid-Upper Levels...Pattern Over Conus Is Fcst To Amplify...With
Increasing Cyclonic Curvature Over Broad Swath From Pac Nw And
Rockies To Oh Valley And Great Lakes By End Of Period.

This Will Support Sewd Plunge Of Sfc Cold Front -- Now Evident From Ls To S-Central High Plains -- Into Already Low-Thetae Air Mass Prevalent Behind Prior Fropa.

By End Of Period...This Front Should Reach Lh...Ern/Srn Il...Sern Ok...And S-Central Tx.

Return Flow Within Most Of Warm Sector Ahead Of This Front Should Remain Too Moisture-Deficient And Stable To Support Tstms Over U.S. Mainland.

Ern Gulf...Fl Keys Region...

Older Sfc Front...Now Quasistationary...Is Evident In Available Sfc
Data And Satellite Imagery From Atlc Waters Just S Of Buoy 41047
Wswwd Across Central Bahamas To Wrn Cuba And Extreme Nwrn Caribbean.

Aloft...Moisture Channel Imagery Indicates Positively Tilted
Shortwave Trough Over S-Central/Swrn Gulf W And N Of Yucatan
Peninsula...And Considerable Difluence Downstream.

Sfc Front May Return Nwd With Apch Of Mid-Upper Shortwave...But Only Slightly And With Slow/Erratic Pace Given Likelihood Of Increasing Precip To Its N.

Increasing Coverage Of Precip...Including Some Tstms...Already Is Evident Over Nwrn Caribbean And Wrn Straits Of Fl.

Initially Unfavorable Thermodynamic Environment Sampled By 12z Eyw Raob Nonetheless Was Much More Moist And Closer To Supportive Lapse Rates Aloft Than In 00z Sounding.

Additional Convection Should Form Over These Areas And Gradually
Shift/Spread Newd As
1. Low-Level Isentropic/Frontal Ascent To Lfc Occurs...And
2. Deep-Layer Mean Lapse Rates Continue To Destabilize From
Combination Of Low-Level Waa And Subtle Large-Scale Cooling Aloft.


Sun Jan 5 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Longwave Trough Amplification Will Occur On Sunday In Concert With A Dramatically Strengthening Polar Jet And An Evolving Cold/Deep
Vortex Over East-Central Canada And The Great Lakes/Midwest.

This Pattern Will Result In Little Or No Tstm Potential Across The
Conus...With The Possible Exception Of Portions Of The Eastern
Seaboard/Nearby Atlantic Along And Ahead Of A Strong Cold Front.

Coastal Carolinas/Extreme Southeast Va...

Ahead Of The Aforementioned Cold Front...It Appears That A
Relatively Moist Air Mass Should Develop Inland Across A Part Of The
Coastal Carolinas With The Possibility Of A Weakly Unstable Warm
Sector By Afternoon.

That Said...Forcing Across The Warm Sector Should Remain Modest...With Weak Lapse Rates Above The Boundary Layer Also Likely Limiting Updraft Development/Strength.

Thinking Remains That The Primary Tstm Potential Be Focused Offshore In The Atlantic Waters.

Given These Factors...Little/If Any Severe Potential Is Anticipated In Spite Of A Considerably Strengthening Wind Field.

Northeast States...

Strong Forcing For Ascent Tied To The Amplifying Upstream Trough / Warm Advection Will Overspread The Region By Sunday Night / Early Monday.

While A Relatively Cold/Stable Near-Surface Layer Will Remain Entrenched Across The Region...It Appears That Steepening Mid-Level Lapse Rates And Very Weak Elevated Instability Might Allow For A Few Embedded Tstms Especially Sunday Evening/Overnight.


Mon Jan 6 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Particularly Deep/Cold Longwave Trough Will Continue An Eastward
Migration Over The Eastern Half Of The Conus On Monday.

Widespread Very Cold/Stable Conditions And Prevalent High Pressure Will Considerably Limit Tstm Potential...Although Showers May Accompany An Eastward-Moving Cold Front Across Fl.

While A Relatively Warm/Moist Air Mass Will Precede The Cold Front Across The Fl Peninsula...Thermodynamic Profiles Do Not Appear Particularly Conducive For Lightning Generation Given Weak Mid-Level Lapse Rates.


Jan 7-11 Convective Outlook

A Quiet Pattern With Respect To Deep Convective Potential Is Anticipated Through Much Of Next Week.

An Extensive Cyclonic Upper Flow Regime Should Quickly Transition To A More Zonal/Progressive Longwave Pattern By The Middle Of Next Week.

Initially...The Widespread Nature Of Very Cold/Stable Conditions Across The Conus Will Considerably Limit Tstm Potential.

Tstms May Become More Probable Across Parts Of The South-Central Conus During The Last Half Of Next Week...By Around Thursday/Day 6 And Beyond.

This Would Be As A Southern Stream Trough Potentially Overspreads The Southwest States/Northern Mexico...With The Gradual Northward Advection Of A Relatively Moist Air Mass Across The Western Gulf Of Mexico Into Tx.

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