Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 1

Wed Dec 25 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Isolated Lightning Strike Or Two Will Be Possible Tonight Over
The Fl Keys Where Residual Moisture/Instability Is Present.

Otherwise...Dry/Stable Conditions Are Expected To Preclude Thunderstorms Over The Conus Tonight.


Thu Dec 26 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Strong Shortwave Will Exit The New England Coast Early Thu While A Weaker Impulse Moves Thru The Central/Nrn Plains.

A Srn Branch Shortwave Will Lift Newd Across Nrn Mexico/Far S Tx Late In The Period.

At The Surface...A Dry And Stable Air Mass Will Prevail Over Much Of The Conus.

The Exception Will Remain Across South Fl...Where A Moist Enely Low-Level Flow Will Remain Established To The North Of A Diffuse Frontal Boundary.

S Fl...

Sctd Showers Will Be Possible Mainly During The Aftn/Early Evening ...And A Sporadic Ltg Strike Is Not Out Of The Question.

Overall...Coverage Appears To Be Below 10 Percent Due To Marginal
Instability And Poor Lapse Rates.


Fri Dec 27 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Model Variability Remains Fairly High With The Evolution Of The
Large-Scale Pattern Over The Cntrl Conus This Period...As A
Low-Amplitude Shortwave Trough Minors Out With Ewd Progression
Towards The Atlantic.

A Weak Antecedent Srn Stream Midlevel Low Will Continue To Drift Ewd Across W/Cntrl Tx...While The Development Of A Second Weak Cutoff Low Near The Arklatex/Lower Ms Valley Remains More Uncertain.

Meanwhile...A Shortwave Upper Trough Is Forecast To Amplify Over The Pac Nw...While A Srn Portion Of The Trough Becomes Separated From Stronger Wlys Aloft And Digs Swd Along The Nrn Ca Coast.

Dry/Stable Conditions Will Persist Across Most Of The Ern Half Of The Conus As A Modified Cp Air Mass Prevails...Resulting In Low Convective Potential.

South Fl...

Moist Low-Level Elys Will Persist Across South Fl Along The Srn
Periphery Of An Anticyclone Centered Over The Mid-Atlantic States.

Little Change In The Midlevel Temperature Profile From D2 /I.E.
Modest Midlevel Lapse Rates/ Is Expected...Although Marginal Diurnal
Destabilization Will Still Occur.

Additionally...Forcing For Ascent Within The Relatively More Moist Boundary Layer Over South Fl Will Be Weak...As A Speed Max Is Forecast To Pass Across The Fl Panhandle/Nrn Fl.

Given These Factors...Tstm Potential Appears To Remain Low...With Slightly Greater Potential For Offshore Convection Possible.


Dec 28-Jan 1 Convective Outlook

A Weak Srn Stream Upper Low Is Forecast To Phase With An Amplifying Nrn Stream Upper Trough Late Sat/D4 Into Sun/D5 Near The Gulf Coast...And Accelerate Ewd Towards The Sern Atlantic
Coast...Although Latest Gfs And Ecmwf Model Runs Vary In The
Speed/Timing Of This System.

A Cold Front Will Progress Swd Across The Fl Peninsula Ahead Of The Approaching Shortwave Trough...With Convection Likely To Develop Along The Front.

Although Still Uncertain...The Potential For A Few Strong Tstms Could Exist If Phasing Of The Shortwave Passage Occurs With The Diurnal Heating Cycle...But The Risk For Widespread Svr Appears Low Attm.

Into Early Next Week...The Large-Scale Pattern Is Likely To Remain
Amplified With Broadly Cyclonic Flow Aloft Encompassing The Conus.

This Pattern Will Continue To Maintain A Cold/Dry Air Mass E Of The

By Tue/D7-Wed/D8...A Srn Stream Upper Low Is Forecast To Progress Ewd Out Of Nrn Mexico And Towards Tx...And Could Result In Gulf Moisture Returning Nwd Into The Srn Plains/Lower-Ms
Valley...But This Scenario Remains Highly Uncertain.

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