Severe Weather Threat thru Jan 1

Wed Dec 25 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Isolated Lightning Strike Or Two Will Be Possible Tonight Over
The Fl Keys Where Residual Moisture/Instability Is Present.

Otherwise...Dry/Stable Conditions Are Expected To Preclude Thunderstorms Over The Conus Tonight.

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Thu Dec 26 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Strong Shortwave Will Exit The New England Coast Early Thu While A Weaker Impulse Moves Thru The Central/Nrn Plains.

A Srn Branch Shortwave Will Lift Newd Across Nrn Mexico/Far S Tx Late In The Period.

At The Surface...A Dry And Stable Air Mass Will Prevail Over Much Of The Conus.

The Exception Will Remain Across South Fl...Where A Moist Enely Low-Level Flow Will Remain Established To The North Of A Diffuse Frontal Boundary.

S Fl...

Sctd Showers Will Be Possible Mainly During The Aftn/Early Evening ...And A Sporadic Ltg Strike Is Not Out Of The Question.

Overall...Coverage Appears To Be Below 10 Percent Due To Marginal
Instability And Poor Lapse Rates.

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Fri Dec 27 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Model Variability Remains Fairly High With The Evolution Of The
Large-Scale Pattern Over The Cntrl Conus This Period...As A
Low-Amplitude Shortwave Trough Minors Out With Ewd Progression
Towards The Atlantic.

A Weak Antecedent Srn Stream Midlevel Low Will Continue To Drift Ewd Across W/Cntrl Tx...While The Development Of A Second Weak Cutoff Low Near The Arklatex/Lower Ms Valley Remains More Uncertain.

Meanwhile...A Shortwave Upper Trough Is Forecast To Amplify Over The Pac Nw...While A Srn Portion Of The Trough Becomes Separated From Stronger Wlys Aloft And Digs Swd Along The Nrn Ca Coast.

Dry/Stable Conditions Will Persist Across Most Of The Ern Half Of The Conus As A Modified Cp Air Mass Prevails...Resulting In Low Convective Potential.

South Fl...

Moist Low-Level Elys Will Persist Across South Fl Along The Srn
Periphery Of An Anticyclone Centered Over The Mid-Atlantic States.

Little Change In The Midlevel Temperature Profile From D2 /I.E.
Modest Midlevel Lapse Rates/ Is Expected...Although Marginal Diurnal
Destabilization Will Still Occur.

Additionally...Forcing For Ascent Within The Relatively More Moist Boundary Layer Over South Fl Will Be Weak...As A Speed Max Is Forecast To Pass Across The Fl Panhandle/Nrn Fl.

Given These Factors...Tstm Potential Appears To Remain Low...With Slightly Greater Potential For Offshore Convection Possible.

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Dec 28-Jan 1 Convective Outlook

A Weak Srn Stream Upper Low Is Forecast To Phase With An Amplifying Nrn Stream Upper Trough Late Sat/D4 Into Sun/D5 Near The Gulf Coast...And Accelerate Ewd Towards The Sern Atlantic
Coast...Although Latest Gfs And Ecmwf Model Runs Vary In The
Speed/Timing Of This System.

A Cold Front Will Progress Swd Across The Fl Peninsula Ahead Of The Approaching Shortwave Trough...With Convection Likely To Develop Along The Front.

Although Still Uncertain...The Potential For A Few Strong Tstms Could Exist If Phasing Of The Shortwave Passage Occurs With The Diurnal Heating Cycle...But The Risk For Widespread Svr Appears Low Attm.

Into Early Next Week...The Large-Scale Pattern Is Likely To Remain
Amplified With Broadly Cyclonic Flow Aloft Encompassing The Conus.

This Pattern Will Continue To Maintain A Cold/Dry Air Mass E Of The
Rockies.

By Tue/D7-Wed/D8...A Srn Stream Upper Low Is Forecast To Progress Ewd Out Of Nrn Mexico And Towards Tx...And Could Result In Gulf Moisture Returning Nwd Into The Srn Plains/Lower-Ms
Valley...But This Scenario Remains Highly Uncertain.


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