Severe Weather Threat thru Feb 9

Sun Feb 2 Convective Outlook
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms Lower Ms Valley Region...

Aside From Minor Tweaking Of The Risk Areas To Reflect Surface
Frontal Advance...Ongoing Forecast Continues To Reasonably Reflect
The Ongoing Convective Evolution.

Storms Remain Generally Disorganized Attm...Though One Longer-Lived Cluster Of Convection Is Currently Indicated Just Nw Of Mcb.

Storms -- Even Those In The Pre-Frontal Warm Sector -- Likely Remain Slightly Elevated Above A Shallow/Weakly Stable Surface-Based Layer...Particularly With Nwd Extent Into Central And Ern Ms.

Still...A Couple Of Isolated Stronger/Rotating Storms Capable Of
Producing A Brief Tornado Or Damaging Gust Will Remain Possible Over The Next Few Hours.

Prev Discussion...

Lower Ms Valley...

Morning Water Vapor Loops Show A Strong Upper Trough Rotating Across Northern Mexico Into Tx.

Ahead Of This Trough...Large Scale Lift Is Occurring Over Much Of Tx/Ok And The Lower Ms Valley.

Surface Dewpoints Have Risen Into The Mid 60s Over Parts Of East Tx Into Southwest Ms...Along And South Of A Surface Boundary Extending Across Central La Into Central Ms.

This Boundary Will Likely Be The Focus For The Risk Of Strong/ Severe Storms Later This Afternoon And Evening.

Model Solutions Suggest The Surface Boundary Will Sag Slowly
Southeastward Today...While The Low Level Jet Strengthens Across Ms.

By Late Afternoon...Forecast Hodographs Along And Just South Of The Boundary Appear Quite Favorable For Supercell Storms.

The Primary Forecast Problem Involves The Strong/Shallow Nature Of The Boundary And The Likelihood That The Bulk Of Convection Will Be Ana-Frontal And North Of The Front.

Any Storm That Can Become Rooted In The Marginally Unstable And Highly Sheared Warm Sector Will Pose A Risk Of Damaging Winds And Tornadoes.

12z Model Runs Show Enough Risk Of This Scenario To Add A Narrow Slight Risk Area Across Parts Of La/Ms.

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Mon Feb 3 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Broad Large-Scale Troughing/Cyclonic Flow Aloft Will Remain Across
The U.S. This Period.

A Short-Wave Feature Moving Quickly Enewd Is Progged To Cross The Southeast U.S. And Mid-Atlantic Region Prior To Moving Offshore Through The First Half Of The Period...While A Second/Stronger Trough Shifts Ewd Across The Swrn U.S./Nrn Mexico Toward The Srn Plains.

As The Initial Short-Wave Trough Over The East Moves Offshore...A
Surface Baroclinic Zone Will Move Sewd And Then Weaken...As It
Stalls Over The Gulf Coast States And Into S Tx.

Later...As The Wrn U.S. Feature Aloft Advances...Low-Level Warm Advection Atop A Post-Frontal Cold Airmass Across The Srn Plains/Lower Ms Valley Region Will Increase Through The End Of The Period.

Overall Lightning Potential Will Remain Low Across The U.S. Through
The Period...With Just A Few Areas Where A Few Strikes Will Be
Possible.

Early In The Period...Convection Accompanying The Swrn U.S. Vort Max May Produce A Strike Or Two Across The Srn Ca Vicinity.

A Few Strikes Will Also Be Possible Across The Ern Nc Vicinity...As The Ern Vort Max Shifts Enewd Across The Area.

Finally...Low-Level Warm Advection Should Support Convective
Development Invof The Arklatex Region...But No More Than A Strike Or
Two Is Currently Expected.

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Tue Feb 4 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Shortwave Trough Will Progress Newd From The Srn Plains To The
Midwest.

Modest Surface Cyclogenesis Will Occur During The Latter Half Of The Period From The Tn Valley Towards The Cntrl Appalachians.

Surface Front Along The Gulf Coast Should Penetrate Inland As A Warm Front Across Parts Of The Deep South.

Trailing Portion Should Advance Ewd As A Cold Front By Early Wed As An Expansive Anticyclone Builds Along The Lee Of The Rockies.

Lower Ms And Tn Valleys...

Guidance Differs With The Degree Of Moisture Recovery In The Wake Of A Frontal Intrusion Into The Wrn Gulf On D1.

Such A Short Period Between Shortwave Troughs /D1 And D3/ Is One That Typically Supports A Less Aggressive Influx Of Gulf Moisture Inland Such As Depicted By The Nam/Cmc And Nmm-B Members Of The Sref.

Although The Nam Is An Outlier With A Faster Ejection Of The Shortwave Trough...The Overall Track And Moderate Progression Still Suggests Stronger Forcing For Ascent Will Largely Remain Separated From Surface Dew Points Aoa 65 Deg F.

In Addition...The Lack Of Steep Tropospheric Lapse Rates Should Support Only Meager Buoyancy.

Primary Convective Potential Should Be Driven By Low-Level Waa With Scant Elevated Buoyancy Aiding In Isolated Embedded Tstms Within A Broad Swath Of Precipitation.

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Feb 5-9 Convective Outlook

Negligible Severe Potential Is Anticipated For Much Of The Period As
A Cold Front Pushes Into The Gulf Late D3 And D4.

By D7-8...Consensus Of Guidance Suggests A Shortwave Trough Should Eject Across The Cntrl Into The Ern Conus.

Fairly Large Spread Does Exist With The Evolution Of This Trough.

There Will Probably Be Low-Level Waa Over Parts Of The Southeast Which Could Render Increased Convective Potential Next Weekend.


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