Severe Weather Threat thru Feb 8

Sat Feb 1 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Southwest Mid-Level Flow Will Remain Established Today Across From Scntrl States Newd To The Ern Seaboard.

At The Sfc...A Cold Front Will Move Sewd Across The Srn Plains And Mid Ms Valley This Morning As A Low Pressure Area Moves Into The Lower Oh Valley.

Thunderstorms May Continue On The Nose Of The Low-Level Jet From Near St Louis Mo Ewd Across Scntrl Il Over The Next Few Hours.

Further To The Southwest In The Arklatex...Sfc Temps Will Warm Into The Mid And Upper 60s F This Afternoon As The Cold Front Advances Across The Region.

The Airmass Will Remain Capped Until The Overnight Period When Low-Level Convergence Will Increase Along The Front.

This May Be Enough For Isolated Thunderstorm Development Mainly North Of The Lufkin Tx Area Extending Newd To Just South Of Little Rock Ar Mainly After 06z.


Sun Feb 2 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Shortwave Trough Near The Nm/Chihuahua Border Should Dampen As It Ejects Towards The Mid-South.

A Surface Cold Front From The Tn Valley To S Tx Will Push Sewd... Reaching The Southeast States And Cntrl Gulf Coast By Early Mon.

In The West...A Shortwave Trough Will Dig Just Off The Ca Coast.

Parts Of The S-Cntrl/Sern Conus...

Low-Level Waa/Isentropic Lift In Conjunction With Mid-Level Dcva
Will Aid In An Expanding Swath Of Precipitation Generally N Of The
Surface Front.

Poleward Transport Of A Wrn Gulf Moisture Plume Should Yield Meager Elevated Buoyancy With Sporadic Lightning Strikes Perhaps As Far N As The Arklatex To Mid-South.

Any Surface-Based Convection Should Be Isolated And Relegated To
Immediately Along The Front Sun Afternoon/Evening Across Cntrl/Srn

Despite Surface Dew Points Likely Increasing Here To The Middle
60s...Modest Tropospheric Lapse Rates Should Result In Thinly
Buoyant Profiles With Mlcape Aob 500 J/Kg.

Although Deep-Layer Speed Shear Appears Sufficient For Organized Storms...Flow Should Largely Remain Unidirectional And Parallel The Front.

Given This And The Weak Instability...Setup Does Not Appear To Warrant Severe Probabilities Attm.

Coastal Cntrl/Srn Ca...

Steepening Lapse Rates In Association With The Digging Shortwave
Trough May Aid In Isolated Tstms Sun Afternoon/Night...Primarily In
Adjacent Offshore Waters.


Mon Feb 3 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Quiescent Pattern For Tstm Potential Is Largely Anticipated Across The Conus.

The Highest Probability Of Tstms /Around 10 Percent/ Should Exist Mon Morning Just Off The Srn Ca Coast In Association With A Shortwave Trough Moving Towards Baja Ca.

A Few Sporadic Lightning Strikes Are Also Possible Early In The Period Over Parts Of The Southeast Within A Belt Of Decaying Convection Attendant To A Dampening Shortwave Impulse Moving Towards The Mid-Atlantic.

On Mon Night...Low-Level Waa Will Intensify Across The Srn Plains As The Baja Ca Shortwave Trough Shifts Ewd Along The Swrn Conus/Nwrn Mexico Border.

This Should Result In A Warm Front Advancing Nwd Towards The Wrn Gulf...But Minimal Elevated Buoyancy N Of The Boundary Will Preclude An Appreciable Tstm Risk.


Feb 4-8 Convective Outlook

Low Severe Potential Is Anticipated To Persist Through Much Of The
Period With A Relatively Marginal Risk Centered On D4 Into Early D5
Across Parts Of The Deep South And Southeast.

Guidance Remains Consistent With The Ejection Of A Shortwave Trough From The Srn High Plains Newd Towards The Midwest On D4 And Across The Northeast On D5.

Modest Surface Cyclogenesis Should Occur On The N Edge Of A
Returning Gulf Moisture Plume By Late D4 Across The Tn Valley To The Cntrl Appalachians.

A Warm Front Initially Along The Gulf Coast Should Penetrate Inland ...But Lower 60s Surface Dew Points Will Probably Be Limited To As Far N As Parts Of Ms/Al To The Carolina Coastal Plain.

In Conjunction With The Absence Of Steep Lapse Rates...Setup Should Yield Only Meager Surface-Based Buoyancy.

In Addition...Stronger Forcing For Ascent Should Primarily Remain N Of The Warm Sector.

A Marginal Severe Risk May Eventually Be Highlighted...But High-End Severe Probabilities Do Not Appear Warranted At This Time Frame.

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