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Severe Weather Threat thru Feb 28

Fri Feb 21 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms Across Parts Of Se Va And Ern Nc...
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms Across Parts Of Ncntrl Fl...

Several Changes Have Been Made To The Outlook For This Issuance.

The First Change Is To Remove The Slight Risk Area From All Areas Except Se Va...Ern Nc And Ncntrl Fl Where Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Are Ongoing. The 5 Percent Tornado Has Been Maintained Across Ern Nc Where A Few Tornadoes Will Be Possible. Tornadoes Will Likely Be Associated With Rotating Cell Elements Embedded In A Squall-Line Moving Quickly Ewd Across Ern Nc.

The Second Change To The Outlook Is To Remove The 5 Percent Hail Probability From The Mid-Atlantic Region.

The Third Change To The Outlook Is To Remove Thunder From The Fl Panhandle...Most Of Ga...Most Of Sc And The Cntrl To Nrn Appalachian Mtns.

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Sat Feb 22 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Northwest To Westerly Mid-Level Flow Will Be In Place Across Much Of The Conus On Saturday As A Shortwave Trough Moves Ewd Across The Nern U.S.

At The Sfc...A Cold Front Will Advance Sewd Across The Cntrl States As High Pressure Dominates The Sern States.

A Quasi-Stationary Front Will Be Located Across Cntrl Fl Where Showers And A Few Thunderstorms May Develop During The Day.

The Instability And Shear Environment In Cntrl Fl Combined With A Limited Amount Of Large-Scale Ascent Is Not Expected To Be Supportive Of A Severe Threat.

Further To The West...A Sfc Low Will Move Into The Srn Plains
Saturday Night As Warm Advection Increases Across The Gulf Coast
States.

This Will Bring Low-Level Moisture Nwd Into The Lower Ms Valley Where Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible Late In The Period.

This Activity Is Expected To Remain Below Severe Limits.

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Sun Feb 23 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Broad Belt Of Cyclonic Flow Aloft Will Stretch From The Nrn Plains
Ewd Across The Midwest...Great Lakes And Nern States With Intense
Midlevel Jet Max Developing Across The Mid Ms And Oh Valleys After
00z.

S Of This Jet Core...Modest Wswly Flow Aloft Will Exist Into The Nrn Gulf Of Mexico With 50+ Kt At 500 Mb.

Meanwhile At The Surface...A Cold Front Will Drift Swd To A San
Antonio Tx To Birmingham Al To Washington D.C. Line By 00z.

A Nwd Return Of Low To Mid 60s F Dewpoints Across Much Of The Srn Gulf States...Will Result In Weak Instability With Bouts Of Showers And Thunderstorms Throughout Much Of The Day.

Ern La...Ms...Al...Ga...Fl Panhandle...

Rain And A Few Thunderstorms Are Likely To Be Ongoing Sunday Morning As Low-Level Moisture Spreads N.

Heating Will Be Minimal Due To Extensive Cloudiness And Lapse Rates Aloft Will Also Be Weak.

However...Moist Deep-Tropospheric Profiles Will Exist And Will Tend
To Harbor Lifted Parcels Despite Puny Instability.

The Result Should Be Non-Severe Storms.

The Front Will Continue To Push Sewd Overnight With Veering
Low-Level Flow Helping To Shunt Remaining Storms Ewd Across Ga And Sc With Little Fanfare.

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Feb 24-28 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Thunderstorms Are Unlikely Through Much Of The Day 4-8 Period As
Models Are Consistently Showing A Cool And Stable Pattern Across The Conus.

The Primary Driver Of This Pattern Will Be A Polar Vortex Shifting Swd Into Ontario.

This Will In Turn Result In Several Instances Of Surface High Pressure Spreading Sewd Across The Cntrl And Ern Conus... Shunting Any Meaningful Low-Level Moisture Further Offshore.


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