Severe Weather Threat thru Feb 23

Sun Feb 16 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Sern Wy Into Nern Co And Far Wrn Neb This Evening...

A Potent Shortwave Trough Continues To Interact With A Steep Lapse
Rate Environment Over Srn Wy And Nrn Co To Produce Isolated Weak
Thunderstorms Along A Deep Tropospheric Frontal Zone.

As Forcing For Ascent Continues Ewd Over The Next Few Hours...An Abrupt End To The Storms Is Expected As They Rapidly Encounter A More Stable Air Mass Downstream.

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Mon Feb 17 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Wly Flow Pattern Will Persist Through Monday/Day2 Across The Conus As A Shortwave Trough Progresses Enewd Away From New England Early In The Day.

An Upstream Trough Moving Into The Nrn Rockies Today Is Forecast To Advance Ewd From The Nrn/Central Plains Through The Oh/Tn Valleys To The Nern States On Monday/Monday Night.

A Series Of Weaker Impulses Are Expected To Track Through Wa To The Nrn Plains.

At 12z Monday...A Cold Front Should Extend N-Ssw From Nrn Mn Through Central Ia...Ern Ks...Ern Ok To Nwrn-Wrn Tx.

This Boundary Will Advance Ewd Reaching The Central Ny Into The Mid Atlantic States...Then Trail Wswwd Through The Gulf Coast States To South Central Tx.

An Area Of Low Pressure Located Along This Front Is Expected To Track Through Central/Srn Mo To The Lower Oh Valley During The First Half Of Day2...Reaching The Lower Great Lakes Region By 12z Tuesday.

Moisture Return Will Persist From Day1 Into Day2 Along And Ahead Of
The Cold Front Advancing Ewd...With Surface Dew Points In The
Mid-Upper 50s Spreading From Srn Ar Into Nrn Ms And Central Al This
Forecast Period...While Values In The Mid 60s Are Confined To The
Upper Tx Into Far Srn La.

Similar To The Late Day1 Outlook...The Nam/4 Km Nam Versus The Gfs Suggest Some Potential For Elevated Tstms Developing/ Spreading Ewd From Srn Mo Into Srn Il/Ind Into Monday Afternoon.

Given The Somewhat Low Threat/Model Differences With The Potential For Occurrence...This Outlook Will Not Introduce A General Tstm Area.

Despite Moisture Return Ahead Of The Cold Front Into The Lower Ms Valley...The Presence Of Relatively Warm Temperatures Atop The Boundary Layer And The Pre-Existing Cp Air Mass...Convective Inhibition Is Not Expected To Become Weak Enough To Support A Tstm Threat With Ewd Extent Either.

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Tue Feb 18 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Relatively Low-Amplitude Upper Flow Field Is Expected Again To
Prevail On Day 3...Though Some Amplification Is Expected To Occur
Across The Nrn Third Of The Country As A Pair Of Troughs Shift Ewd
Roughly Along The International Border.

At The Surface...A Relatively Weak Pattern Will Continue Across Most
Of The Country...Though A Cold Front Is Forecast To Shift Inland/ Across The Nw Quarter Of The Country Through The Second Half
Of The Period.

Showers Will Accompany The Nwrn U.S. Storm System...Eventually
Spreading As Far S As Nrn Ca And As Far E As Id/Wrn Mt/Wrn Wy.
Elsewhere...A Few Showers May Periodically Affect Parts Of The Sern
Quarter Of The Country.

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Feb 19-23 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Recent Medium-Range Model Runs Show Good Consistency/ Similarity Through Roughly Day 6/Fri. 2-21/...With A Large Trough Progged To Evolve Over The Central U.S. With Time -- And Then Persist There Until Late In The Period.

Initially...Short-Wave Troughing Is Progged To Dig Esewd Across The
Rockies Day 4...Emerging Into The Central U.S. For The Start Of Day
5.

As This Occurs...Models Continue To Depict A Developing Surface
Low Shifting Newd From The Ok Vicinity Early To The Mi Vicinity By
Late Thursday Afternoon Or Early Evening.

A Strong/Trailing Cold Front Extending Swwd Across The Oh/Mid Ms Valleys And Into Tx Will Likely Focus A Band Of Showers And Thunderstorms...As Higher Theta-E Air Advecting Nwd Supports Modest Surface-Based Cape.

Attm...It Appears That The Strongest Ascent Will Likely Be Focused N
Of The Oh Valley...While Sufficient Instability Likely Remains Limited To Areas From The Srn Il/Srn Indiana Region Swd.

Thus...The Zone Of Greatest Juxtaposition -- From The Lower Oh Valley Swd Across The Mid Ms/Tn Valleys -- Appears To Be The Zone Where Severe Risk Will Be Maximized.

Given The Strength Of The Storm System As Depicted By The Various
Models Over The Past Several Runs...The Associated Strength Of The
Wind Field...And Dewpoints At Least Into The 50s Across The
Aforementioned Area Supporting At Least Marginal Surface-Based
Cape...The Risk For Damaging Winds Appears Sufficient With The
Expected Convective Line To Warrant Inclusion Of A Risk Area This
Forecast -- Mainly For Thursday Afternoon And Early Evening Hours.

With This Storm System Forecast To Move Quickly Enewd Into Sern
Canada And The Lower Great Lakes Region Overnight...Convective Risk Day 6 Will Be Confined To The Trailing Portion Of The Front
Extending From The Mid-Atlantic Region Swwd To The Wrn Gulf.

With Weak Forcing For Ascent...Severe Risk Across This Region Should Remain Somewhat Limited.

Beyond Day 6...Increasing Uncertainty Limits Confidence With Respect To Evolution Of The Convective Potential.


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