Severe Weather Threat thru Feb 2

Sun Jan 26 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Across Upper Ms Valley This Evening And Into The Great Lakes Region Overnight.

At The Sfc...A Low Over Nrn Lower Mi Will Move Ewd Into The Ontario As A Strong Cold Front Advances Sewd Across The Srn Plains... Ozarks And Mid Ms Valley.

Ahead Of The Front In The Gulf Coast States...Sfc Winds Will Remain

However...Low-Level Moisture Should Be Insufficient For Convective Development Along The Front As It Moves Swd Into The Lower Ms Valley Late Tonight.

Elsewhere Across The Conus...Thunderstorm Development Is Not Expected Through 12z Monday.


Mon Jan 27 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Longwave Cyclonic Upper Flow Will Continue To Prevail East Of The
Rockies On Monday...With Cold/Stable Conditions Largely Precluding
Tstm Potential.

While Showers Will Be Possible Along A Coastal Southeast States/Fl Frontal Zone...The Overall Potential For Tstms Will Likely Be Limited /Below 10 Percent Inland/ By Marginal Moisture And Very Weak Buoyancy.


Tue Jan 28 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Broadly Cyclonic Flow Regime Will Persist Across Most Of The Conus ...But Will Gradually Become More Progressive As A Series Of
Upper Impulses Traverse Ewd.

However...Sfc High Pressure Will Remain Firmly Established From The Srn Plains Into The Mid-Ms Valley...Continuing To Maintain A Stable Cp Air Mass E Of The Rockies And Yield Negligible Tstm Potential.


Jan 29-Feb 2 Convective Outlook

Deamplification Of The Large-Scale Pattern Will Occur During The
Middle Of Next Week And Give Way To A More Progressive Series Of
Low-Amplitude Shortwave Troughs Moving W-E.

The Air Mass Will Remain Dry/Stable Across Most Of The Conus Through Late In The Week...Before An Upper Trough Slowly Deepens Across The Pacific Coast/Southwest And Fosters A Nwd Return Of A Modified Gulf Air Mass.

Details Remain Highly Uncertain With The Evolution Of This Pattern ...With The Ecmwf Much More Aggressive With A Lead Impulse Ejecting Newd Across The Plains/Mid-Ms Valley Sun/D8.

Additionally...The Degree Of Destabilization That Can Occur Across
The Cntrl Conus Is Questionable Given The Likelihood Of A Persistent Cold Antecedent Air Mass Across The Region.

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