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Severe Weather Threat thru Feb 15

Sat Feb 8 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Mid-Upper Level Pattern Generally Will Be Characterized By Slightly
Anticyclonic To Zonal Flow Over W Coast...And Broadly Cyclonic
Regime Downstream Over Most Of Conus.

Shortwave Trough Currently Over Al Is Fcst To Deamplify And Eject Newd To Carolinas By 18z...Then Offshore.

This Feature Will Be Followed By Series Of Much Lower-Amplitude Perturbations...At Varying Latitudes Within Broader Cyclonic-Flow Belt.

At Sfc...Frontal-Wave Low Already Has Developed Offshore Ne Fl Near
29n80w...With Front Extending Swwd Across Pgd/Fmy Region.

Low Is Fcst To Deepen Somewhat And Move Newd Roughly Along Gulf Stream...While Cold Front Moves Sewd Through Fl Peninsula And Offshore Keys By About 03z.

Se Fl...

Isolated To Widely Scattered Sfc-Based Tstms Are Possible Mid-Late
Aftn Along/Ahead Of Sfc Cold Front.

Weak Sea Breeze/Convergence Line Should Develop Over Sern Coastal Counties In Concert With Sfc Diabatic Heating And Favorable Low-Level Moisture.

This Will Contribute To Prefrontal Convective Potential Just Inland... Generally Over Densely Populated Coastal Strip From Pbi-Hst... In Addition To Any Convection That Can Develop Along Segment Of Front From Longitude Of Lake Okeechobee Ewd Where Convergence Should Be Relatively Maximized.

Consistent Modifications To Ensemble Of 12z Mfl Raob And Model Fcst Soundings From Nam...Arw-Kf...Nssl-Wrf...And Both Versions Of Rr...Suggest Weak Cinh And Sufficient Boundary-Layer Thetae To Yield Mlcape 800-1500 J/Kg...Extending Well Above -20 Deg C Isotherm.

Most Progs Also Show Some Deep-Convective Qpf Signal Over This Region...Adding Confidence To Fcst.

Elsewhere...Very Isolated Ltg Cannot Be Ruled Out During Next 3-4
Hours Over Portions Nrn Fl...As Belt Of Elevated Convection And
Related Precip Moves Across Area. However...With Related Mid-Upper Perturbation Weakening As It Makes Closest Apch... System-Relative Field Of Dcva/Ascent Likewise Should Diminish. Tstm Potential Appears Too Mrgl/Isolated For Gen Thunder Area.

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Sun Feb 9 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Northern Ca Coast...

Weak Height Falls Will Briefly Flatten Broad Ridge Along The Ca
Coast Sunday.

Both The Gfs/Nam Suggest A Significant Mid Level Short-Wave Trough Will Progress Inland Around 10/00z Such That Ascent Should Lead To Significant Mid Level Moistening.

Forecast Soundings From The Sfo Bay Region Suggest Parcels Lifted Near 850mb Will Yield Mucape On The Order Of 200 J/Kg With El Levels Sufficiently High Enough To Warrant A Risk Of Lightning.

Deep Wly Flow Along/North Of Mid Level Jet Should Prove Favorable For At Least Weak Orographic Lift Across The Higher Terrain North Of The Bay And This May Enhance The Prospect For More Robust Updrafts That Could Generate Isolated Lightning. Greatest Risk Of Tstms Is Between 21-03z.

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Mon Feb 10 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

4-Corners Region...

Nrn Ca Short-Wave Trough Is Expected To Progress Inland Sunday Then Sewd Into The 4-Corners Region Monday.

This Feature Should Enhance Mid Level Lapse Rates Across Srn Ut/Co Into Nrn Az/Nm And Weak Instability Is Expected To Develop As A Result.

While Pw Values Should Not Be That High...Mid Level Ascent/ Moistening North Of Jet Axis...Combined With Orographic Lift...Should Prove Adequate For Weak Convection Across This Region... Especially During The Peak Of The Diurnal Cycle.

Sporadic Lightning May Be Noted With The Strongest Updrafts But Overall Coverage Should Remain Quite Isolated.

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Feb 11-15 Convective Outlook

Weak Instability May Develop Across The Nern Gulf Basin During The
Day 4-5 Period As Modified Maritime Air Mass Struggles To Surge
Inland Ahead Of Progressive Cold Front.

Latest Ecmwf Is A Bit More Amplified With Srn Stream Short-Wave Trough As It Translates Along The Gulf Coast Wed-Thu While The Gfs Delays This Process Until Later Thu-Fri.

Regardless...Meaningful Instability Is Not Expected To Be In Place Prior To Short-Wave Passage...And Despite Convective Possibilities Along Cold Front The Threat Of Organized Severe Will Remain Low This Period.


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