Severe Weather Threat thru Feb 1

Sat Jan 25 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Deep Vortex Will Persist Over Hudson Bay While Potent Shortwave
Trough In Its Srn Quadrant Sweeps Rapidly E Across The Oh Vly Today ...And Off The Mid-Atlantic Cst Early Sun.

Isold To Wdly Sctd Tstms May Form Well Off The Mid-Atlantic Cst Later In The Period As The Disturbance Reaches The Warmer Gulf Stream Waters.

In The Wake Of The Trough...Another Surge Of Arctic Air Will Overspread The Nern Third Of The Nation.

While The Mid-Lvl Flow Will Quickly Back Across The Mid/Upr Ms Vlys Tngt And Early Sun Ahead Of Stronger Upstream Impulse Now Amplifying Sse Toward Sk...Given Sparse Moisture...Associated Waa Uplift Will Be Insufficient For Thunder.


Sun Jan 26 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Broad Large-Scale Cyclonic Flow Persists Mainly From The Rockies
Ewd...With An Embedded Shortwave Trough Progressing From The Nrn Plains Into The Lower Great Lakes.

An Associated Cold Front Will Surge Swd Across The Plains And The Ms/Oh Valleys...Reinforcing A Cold/Stable Air Mass Over Much Of The Interior Conus.

Modest Gulf Moisture Return Will Occur Across The Fl Peninsula Early Mon Morning Ahead Of A Weak Impulse Moving Across The Gulf.

Low-Topped Convective Showers And Possibly A Thunderstorm Could Develop Over Wrn Fl As Marginal Destabilization Occurs...But Confidence In Greater Than 10 Percent Coverage Is Low.


Mon Jan 27 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Persistent Blocking Pattern Will Continue As A Large-Scale Trough
Remains Centered Over The Ern Conus.

A Reinforcing Shot Of Very Cold Air Will Occur E Of The Rockies As A Strong Cold Front Reaches The Gulf Of Mexico.

Segment Of The Front Over Fl May Foster Low-Topped Convective Development Within A Partially Modified Air Mass Over The Fl Peninsula...But Any Lightning Potential Will Likely Be Limited By A Marginal Thermodynamic Environment.


Jan 28-Feb 1 Convective Outlook

Large-Scale Pattern Is Forecast To Deamplify And Become More
Progressive Across The Conus By Mid-Week...As A Pacific Coast Upper Ridge Breaks Down.

Sfc High Pressure Over The Srn Plains And Southeast Will Be Slow To Erode...Generally Maintaining Stable Conditions Nationwide Through Much Of The Period.

It Appears Likely A More Substantial Return Of Gulf Moisture Nwd Into The Mid-Ms And Oh Valleys Will Occur Late Next Week Into The Weekend As A Trough Begins To Amplify Near The Pacific Coast.

A Series Of Associated Weak Impulses Are Forecast To Progress Ewd...But Svr Potential Appears To Be Low Attm As The Degree Of Destabilization And Air Mass Modification Is Questionable.

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