Severe Weather Threat thru Dec 8

Thru Early Mon AM Dec 2 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Broad Cyclonic Flow Aloft Will Prevail Across The U.S. This Period ...With A Strong Vortex To Continue Digging Swd Along The Nwrn
Noam Coast Toward The Pac Nw Through The Period.

Meanwhile...A Fairly Nondescript Surface Pattern Exists Over Most Of
The Country...Aside From The Nwrn Part Of The Country Where A Cold
Front Will Continue Advancing Swd Ahead Of The Aforementioned Upper System.

Thunder Risk Is Not Expected Across The Conus The Rest Of The
Period...With The Exception Of The Mid/Lower Ms Valley Region Where A Few Strikes May Occur Within Weak Convection Progged To Increase In Coverage Over The Next Several Hours.


Mon Dec 2 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Leading Shortwave Trough Will Depart The Sern U.S. Quickly As A
More Intense Trough Develops Across The Wrn States.

In Anticipation Of The Wrn Trough...Strong Zonal Flow Will Develop From The Great Basin Ewd Across The Rockies With Initial Upper Low Deepening Late Across The Nrn High Plains.

At The Surface...A Plume Of Near 60f Dewpoints Will Exist From Ern
Tx Into The Lower Ms Valley...Drawn Nwd By The Preceding Trough.
However...Given Lack Of Forcing For Ascent...And Very Low Levels Of
Instability...It Appears There Will Be Little Threat Of Thunderstorms Persisting After 12z Mon Over Ms/Al.

Farther W...A Large Area Of Low Pressure Will Deepen Over The Cntrl
And Nrn Plains...But Conditions Will Not Be Favorable For
Thunderstorms Due To Stable Air.

Elsewhere...Cool Air Aloft With The Nrn Rockies/Plains Low May
Result In Marginal Instability...But Temperatures Will Be Cold And
Any Lightning Strikes Will Be Quite Isolated.


Tue Dec 3 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Low Predictability Exists With Dichotomous Depictions Between
Gfs/Nam And Non-Ncep Guidance Over The Amplification Of A Longwave Trough Into The Wrn Conus And Subsequent Evolution Of Embedded Shortwave Impulses.

Even With Wpc/Spc Preference For The More Consistent Non-Ncep Simulations...A Predominantly Swly Flow Regime At 850 Mb Should Exist From The Srn Plains To The Mid-Ms/Lower Oh Valleys.

Given Below-Normal Pw Values Currently Over The Gulf...Low-Level Moisture Return Should Be Limited With Minimal If Any Buoyancy.

Although Scattered Showers May Develop With Waa Across The Mid-Ms/Lower Oh Valleys Early Wed...Overall Pattern Does Not Appear Supportive Of Tstm Probabilities Aoa 10 Percent Attm.


Dec 4-8 Convective Outlook

The Low Predictability That Was Highlighted In The D3 Outlook Continues Into The D4-8 Period With Poor Run-To-Run Evolution Of
Individual Shortwave Impulses Ejecting Within The Longwave Trough
Anchored From Cntrl Canada To The Wrn Conus.

Still...Consensus Of Guidance Does Suggest That A Lead Shortwave Trough Will Aid In Cyclogenesis Invof Upper Great Lakes Towards James Bay On D4-5.

A Relatively Strong Cold Front Should Push Sewd And Intercept A
Modifying Warm Sector From The Oh Valley To The Wrn Gulf Coast.

The Character Of This Warm Sector Should Largely Be Weakly
Unstable...Owing To Below-Normal Pw Values Over The Gulf At Present And Positive-Tilt Nature Of The Upper-Level Pattern Limiting
Juxtaposition With Steeper Mid-Level Lapse Rates.

With Cyclogenesis Becoming Well-Divorced From This Type Of Warm Sector And A Rather Extensive Cold Air Mass Behind The Front... Setup Appears Only Marginally Favorable For Severe Storms... Peaking Around D5.

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