Severe Weather Threat thru Dec 6

Fri Nov 29 Convective Outlook

No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Zonal Flow Will Continue Over The Cntrl And Ern U.S. Through Sat... Downstream From Split Flow Pattern Over The West. Dry Air Will
Prevail At Lwr Lvls Over The Cntrl And Ern States In Wake Of
Departing Trough Over The Canadian Maritimes...And In Zone Of
Comparatively Stagnant Low-Lvl Flow Beneath Upr-Lvl Split In The
West.

While Some Mid/Upr-Lvl Convection Likely Will Persist In Association
With Elongating Upr Low Off The Srn Ca Cst...Depth/Degree Of
Elevated Buoyancy Expected To Remain Too Limited For Thunder... Especially As The Low Continues To Withdraw Swwd Off The Cst.

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Sat Nov 30 Convective Outlook

No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Dry Pattern Will Persist Across The Country With A Generally Zonal
To Wnwly Flow Regime Aloft And Widespread Polar Air At The Surface.

Nely Winds Across The Gulf Of Mexico And Wrn Atlantic Will Further
Limit Potential Destabilization. While Some Low Level Moisture And
Instability Will Exist Over Srn Fl...Any Shallow Convective Showers
Are Expected To Remain Offshore.

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Sun Dec 1 Convective Outlook

No Tstm Areas Forecast...

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Dec 2-6 Convective Outlook

With A Maritime Tropical Air Mass Relegated To The Caribbean... Negligible Severe Potential Will Continue Into Mid-Week.

By Day 7-8...Air Mass Modification Will Occur Across The Wrn Gulf
With A Longwave Trough Amplifying Over The Wrn Conus.

Poleward Moisture Transport Should Yield Weak Buoyancy Developing From The Wrn Gulf Coast Towards The Mid-South.

Although Low Predictability Exists With The Subsequent Evolution Of Individual Shortwave Impulses...A Relatively Strong Cold Front Should Push Sewd Towards The Cntrl Conus.

Overall Pattern Appears Only Marginally Favorable For Severe Storms Attm.


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