Severe Weather Threat thru Dec 5

Thu Nov 28 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Prev Discussion...

Widespread Dry And Stable Conditions Will Preclude Organized
Thunderstorms Across The Nation Today.

An Isolated Lightning Strike Cannot Be Ruled Out Over The Upper/ Middle Great Lakes Where Very Steep Lapse Rates Are Present...But The Potential Appears Quite Low.


Fri Nov 29 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

Thunderstorms Are Not Expected Anywhere Across The Conus On Friday Due To The Presence Of Dry Air Courtesy Of A Large Surface High Extending From The Plains To The Atlantic Ocean.


Sat Nov 30 Convective Outlook
No Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Low-Amplitude Flow Regime Will Persist Across Most Of The Conus ...Characterized By A Pair Of Distinct Shortwave Upper Troughs
Approaching The Atlantic Coast.

The Southernmost Of The Two Shortwave Troughs May Foster Offshore Tstm Development From The Carolinas Swd Along A Stationary Baroclinic Zone...But A Dry/Stable Air Mass Will Likely Preclude Convection Over Coastal/Inland Areas.

Farther W...A Weak Upper Trough Will Approach The Srn Ca Coast Ahead Of A Powerful Upper Jet Entering The Pacific Nw.

However...No Thunderstorms Are Forecast To Accompany Either Of These Features...As Any Substantial Moisture Remains Shunted S Of The International Border And W Of The Pacific Coast.


Dec 1-5 Convective Outlook

Both Gfs/Ecmwf Guidance Are Consistent Indicating Significant
Amplification Of The Large-Scale Pattern Will Occur Early In The
Extended Period As A Strong Upper Trough Digs Swd Across The Wrn

Swly Midlevel Flow Will Likely Strengthen Ahead Of The Upper Trough Across The Plains And Ms Valley...But Any Substantial Gulf Moisture Return Will Likely Be Delayed Until Wed/D7 Or Thu/D8.

A Few Strong Tstms May Be Possible Across Parts Of The Arklatex And Southeast Within This Regime As A Cold Front Progresses Swd.

However...With The Primary Trough Expected To Remain Situated Well To The W...The Likelihood For Widespread Svr Weather Appears Low.

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