Severe Weather Threat thru Dec 1

Sun Nov 24 Convective Outlook
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Ongoing Forecast Remains On Track...With Continental Polar Airmass Prevailing Over The U.S. Largely Mitigating Appreciable Thunder Risk In Most Areas. A Few Lightning Strikes Will Remain Possible Across Parts Of Central And S Tx Ahead Of An Advancing Upper Low...But Coverage Should Remain Limited Through The Period.

Prev Discussion...

Broad Cyclonic Flow Is Present Today Over The Eastern States...With
A Cutoff Low Affecting The Southwestern U.S. Weak Warm Advection
And Marginal Cape Values Will Pose A Risk Of A Few Thunderstorms
Through The Forecast Period Over Parts Of Central Tx. Also...An
Isolated Thunderstorm Might Affect The Immediate Coast Of South Fl
This Afternoon. But Otherwise...No Organized Thunderstorm Activity
Is Expected Today.
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Mon Nov 25 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

The Split Flow Pattern Aloft Is Forecast To Begin To Deteriorate This Period...As Some Phasing Occurs Over The Central U.S. Between A
Nrn Stream Short-Wave Digging Swd Out Of Canada And The Srn Stream Low Shifting Ewd Across The Srn Plains.

With A Continental Polar Airmass Prevailing At The Surface Across A
Large Portion Of The Country...Little Risk For Deep Moist Convection
Is Evident.

Any Appreciable Thunder Risk This Period Will Remain Confined To The Gulf And Adjacent Coastal States...Where The Highest Theta-E Airmass Will Reside.
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Tue Nov 26 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Srn Stream Upper Trough Is Forecast To Accelerate Ewd From Tx
Across The Gulf.

A Nrn Stream Upper Trough Will Dig Sewd Across The Great Lakes And Ms Valley...Eventually Phasing With The Srn Stream Trough By The End Of The Period.

At The Sfc...Low Pressure And Attendant Warm Front Will Track Newd From The Central Gulf Coast Into The Mid-Atlantic By Early Wed Morning. An Accompanying Cold Front Will Sweep Ewd Across The Gulf.

A Cold/Dry Air Mass Will Remain Entrenched Across The Remainder Of The Central/Ern Conus As High Pressure Persists Over The Great Plains.

Portions Of The Ern Gulf Coast And Sern Atlantic Coast...

A Partially Modified Gulf Air Mass Is Expected To Advance Inland
Throughout The Day...In Association With A Sfc Low And Attendant
Warm Front.

The Sfc Low Is Forecast To Track Newd From The Central Gulf Coast Into Ga By Evening...And Then Towards The Mid-Atlantic Coast Overnight.

Widespread Precipitation Invof And N Of The Warm Front Will Likely Exist...And Substantially Limit Buoyancy With Nwd Extent.

However...Low-Level Flow/Shear Is Forecast To Strengthen Throughout The Day...As A 50 Kt Llj Becomes Established From The Fl Peninsula Into The Carolinas. A Few Strong/Svr Wind Gusts Could
Evolve [in that area]...And Perhaps A Tornado...But The Threat Will Likely Be Limited By Meager Buoyancy.

Additional Convection Is Expected To Develop Along And Ahead Of A
Cold Front Progressing Ewd Across The Gulf Of Mexico.

While The Exact Timing Remains Uncertain...The Most Probable Scenario Attm Is The Cold Front Should Approach The Wrn Fl Peninsula Late Tue Evening Or Early Wed Morning. Convection May Gradually Weaken As It Moves Onshore...But A Few Strong Or Svr Wind Gusts Will Be Possible.
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Nov 27-Dec 1 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

In The Wake Of An Amplified Ern Conus Upper Trough...A Generally
Low-Amplitude Flow Regime Will Prevail Through The Extended Period.

An Upper Low Removed From Stronger Wlys Aloft Will Slowly Progress Ewd Near The Ca Coast And Southwest Into The Weekend...Before Approaching The Srn High Plains.

Sfc High Pressure Over The Interior Conus Will Maintain A Dry/Stable Air Mass...With Any Substantial Low-Level Moisture Shunted Into The Srn Gulf...Yielding Minimal Svr Potential Throughout The Week.


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