Severe Weather Threat thru Aug 9

Sat Aug 2 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Few Strong To Severe Storms Will Be Possible From Portions Of Central And Northeastern Oregon ...Eastern Washington...Northern Idaho Into Western Montana. A Few Of These Storms May Become Capable Of Producing Isolated Strong Wind Gusts And Hail.

Blocking Pattern Will Persist Saturday With Upper Trough In Place Over The Eastern Half Of The U.S. And An Upstream Ridge Dominating Much Of The West.

Weak Vorticity Maxima Will Move Along The Nwrn Periphery Of The Upper Ridge Into The Pacific Nw. An Upper Low Over Baja Will Move Nwd Reaching Srn Ca Saturday Night.

Pacific Nw Through Nrn Rockies Area...

An Axis Of Modest Instability /400-800 J/Kg Mlcape/ Will Likely Develop Generally East Of The Cascades Across Ern Oregon And Wa As Well As Farther East Across The Nrn Rockies. A Belt Of 25-35 Kt Mid-Upper Flow Will Spread Through This Region In Association With A Shortwave Trough Lifting Newd Along Nwrn Periphery Of The Upper Ridge...But Deep Shear Will Remain Generally Aob 30 Kt.

Destabilization And Deep Mixing Of The Boundary Layer Along With Orographic Forcing Will Result In Thunderstorm Initiation During The Afternoon. Inverted-V Profiles And Steep Lapse Rates Will Promote A Threat For Mainly Isolated Downburst Winds Through Early Evening.

Elsewhere...

Scattered Storms Will Occur From The Cntrl Through Srn Rockies Into The Intermountain West.

Other Storms Will Develop From The Nrn Plains Along A Sewd Moving Cold Front As Well As Farther East Over The Oh Valley And Mid-Atlantic Region In Association With Impulses Moving Through The Upper Low.

In All Of These Areas The Shear-Instability Parameter Space Will Not Be Sufficient For An Organized Severe Threat...But Isolated Instances Of Strong Wind Gusts Cannot Be Ruled Out.

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Sun Aug 3 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Scattered Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop Along A Front During The Late Afternoon From Southern Minnesota To Eastern Nebraska.

Scattered Robust Thunderstorms Should Also Develop Across Much Of The Southwestern U.S. Gusty Winds And Some Hail May Occur With These Storms.

Upper Ms Valley To Mid Mo Valley...

Ridge-Topping Short-Wave Trough Will Dig Sewd Across Nwrn Ontario Into The Nrn Great Lakes By 04/00z. In Response To This Feature...Sfc Anticyclone Should Build South Of The International
Border Forcing A Frontal Zone Through Cntrl Mn...Swwd Into Nrn Neb By Peak Heating.

Appreciable Large Scale Forcing Should Remain Across Canada But Strong Boundary Layer Heating Is Expected Along The Wind Shift... Especially Across The Cntrl Plains Where Sfc Temperatures May Exceed 90f. Cinh Will Weaken Enough For Convective Development Along The Wind Shift With Temps Above 90f.

While Low Level Warm Advection May Induce Convection Early In The Period Across The Mid Mo Valley...Strongest Tstms Should Occur During The Afternoon/Early Evening Within A Weak-Modestly Sheared Profile. Robust Thunderstorms Should Evolve Within Warm Advection Zone And Gusty Winds/Marginally Severe Hail Could Accompany The Strongest Storms.

Southwestern U.S...

Low Latitude Disturbance Over The Baja Peninsula Will Drift Nwd To Near The Ca Border Early...Then Across Srn Ca By 04/12z. This Circulation May Strengthen A Bit Into The Day2 Period Which Should Allow Mean Sly Flow To Increase Across Nwrn Mexico Into Az/Lower Co River Valley.

Tropical Surge Into This Region Should Result In Considerable Amount Of Convection. If Enough Heating Develops Within This Flow Regime Then Gusty Winds Appear Possible With Stronger Storms.

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Mon Aug 4 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Thunderstorms Are Expected Across Much Of The Interior West And Scattered Strong Storms May Produce Gusty Winds From Portions Of Northern Arizona Into Utah.

Other Isolated Strong Storms Are Possible Across The Mid Missouri Valley And Mid Mississippi Valley.

Interior West...

Baja Peninsula Disturbance Is Expected To Drift North Across The Lower Co River Valley Into The Great Basin By 05/00z. While The Highest Pw Values Should Remain Across The Swrn Deserts... Enough Moisture/Instability Will Extend Along A Corridor From Az Into Ut Supporting Sct-Numerous Thunderstorms By Afternoon Immediately Ahead Of Short Wave. Gusty Winds May Accompany The Strongest Convection...Especially Where Pockets Of Stronger Diurnal Heating Are Observed.

Mid Mo Valley/Mid Ms Valley...

Slowly Retreating Sfc Anticyclone Will Shift Into The Great Lakes Monday As Sewd-Moving Short-Wave Trough Migrates Toward The Lower Great Lakes. Trailing Sfc Boundary Is Expected To Extend Across Il/Nrn Mo Into Neb And This Feature Should Prove Instrumental In Potential Convective Development This Period.

Weak Warm Advection May Induce A Few Thunderstorm Clusters Early In The Period While Strong Diurnal Heating May Instigate Afternoon/Evening Storms Near The Wind Shift. In The Wake Of Short Wave It Appears Forcing Should Prove Negligible And Prospects For Organized Severe Are Not Particularly High. Even So...A Few Storms Could Produce Gusty Winds / Hail Within A Sheared Environment Supportive Of Multi-Cell Updrafts.

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Aug 5-9 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Mid-High-Level Flow Is Expected To Remain Seasonally Weak Across Most Of The Conus Through The Medium Range Period.

The Primary Exception Will Be Across The Nern U.S. Where Mid-Level Troughing Will Suppress Heights Into The Middle Atlantic Forcing Moderate-Strong Flow For August Into This Region By Mid Week. However...Latest Model Guidance Is Not Particularly Aggressive With Moisture/Instability Beneath This Stronger Flow Aloft And The Probability For Organized Severe Thunderstorms Should Remain Low Through The Period.

Across Much Of The Nrn Conus...Pockets Of Convection Will Develop Ahead Of Weak Transitory Disturbances That Migrate From The Nrn Inter-Mountain Region Into The Oh Valley. At This Time Low Predictability And Weak Shear Do Not Favor Organized Severe.


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