Severe Weather Threat thru Aug 7

Thu Jul 31 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for Ne Ny State And Nrn New England...

Storms May Produce Isolated Large Hail And Locally Damaging Wind Gusts Across Northeast New York State And Northern New England Today.

A Few Strong Storms With Gusty Winds Are Also Possible Over East Texas And The Cascade Range Of Northern California And Oregon.

Ne Ny State And Nrn New England Today...

A Pronounced Midlevel Shortwave Trough Over Wrn Ny State This Morning Will Rotate Enewd Over Nrn New England By This Evening.

Ascent In Advance Of This Wave /As Evidenced By The Ongoing Cluster Of Storms Near Syracuse/...Along With Daytime Heating And Residual Boundary Layer Dewpoints In The Mid-Upper 50s...Will Support An Increase In Thunderstorm Coverage By Mid-Late Morning.

Cool Midlevel Temperature Profiles /Near -16c At 500 Mb/ And Afternoon Mlcape Of 500-750 J/Kg Will Support A Risk For Marginally Severe Hail With The Stronger Storms.

Additionally...Midlevel Flow Near 40 Kt Will Contribute To Effective Bulk Shear Of 30-35 Kt...Which Will Support The Potential For Some Organized / Supercell Storm Structures In The Absence Of Strong Linear Forcing For Ascent...Enhancing The Hail Risk Beyond That Suggested By The Buoyancy Alone.

The Presence Of Organized Cells Or Small Bowing Segments Will Also Favor The Potential For Isolated Damaging Winds. Given The Rather Modest Buoyancy And Early Arrival Of The Midlevel Trough... The Severe Storm Risk Is Expected To Diminish By 00z.

E Tx To S Central Tx This Afternoon/Evening...

A Convectively-Enhanced Midlevel Trough Approaching The Arklatex Will Continue Sewd Today While Slowly Weakening. A Trailing Weak Cold Front Will Likewise Move Slowly Sewd Into E Central...Se...And S Central Tx Today.

This Boundary Will Help Focus Thunderstorm Development By Mid Afternoon...As The Boundary Layer Destabilizes With Daytime Heating And Dewpoints Remaining In The Low 70s. The Midlevel Wave Is Rather Compact And The Strongest Associated Vertical Shear Will Only Overlap The Stronger Buoyancy In A Narrow Corridor Across E Tx...Where Organized Multicells/Marginal Supercells Are Possible. However...Midlevel Lapse Rates Will Remain Poor Over This Area... Limiting Mlcape To Aob 1500 J/Kg. The Net Result Will Be An Environment That Supports A Low-End Risk For Damaging Outflow Gusts For A Few Hours This Afternoon/Evening.

Cascade Range From Nrn Ca Into Central Ore This Afternoon...

High-Based Convection Is Expected Again This Afternoon Along The Nw Edge Of The Great Basin Monsoonal Moisture Plume...Where Surface Heating Is Maximized Along The E Slopes Of The Cascades.

Background Ascent And Thunderstorm Coverage Will Be Somewhat Enhanced By The Presence Of Weak Mid-Upper Speed Maxima Ejecting Nnewd From Nrn Ca To Ore. Isolated Strong/Damaging Outflow Gusts Will Be The Main Concern With Inverted-V Profiles.


Fri Aug 1 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Thunderstorms With Perhaps A Marginal Hail Threat Will Occur Across The Upper Mississippi Valley...And From Georgia Into The Carolinas During The Day.

A Stationary Upper Trough Will Remain Over The Ern Conus Providing Cool Air Aloft And Maximizing Instability Despite Relatively Low Dewpoints. The Cyclonic Flow Aloft And Heating Will Lead To A Weak Surface Trough From Mn Into Lower Mi By Afternoon Where Scattered Storms Will Be Focused.

Another Surface Trough Will Exist From Ga Into The Carolinas With Flow Off The Atlantic Maintaining Higher Dewpoints.

Elsewhere...Monsoonal Storms Will Persist Across Much Of The W Beneath The Upper Ridge...With Isolated Storms Over Oregon Under The Influence Of Weak Upper Troughing.

Upper Ms Valley Into The Upper Great Lakes...

Strong Heating Beneath Cool Profiles Aloft Will Result In Steep Lapse Rates And An Uncapped Atmosphere Supporting Small But Vigorous Afternoon Updrafts. Dewpoints Will Remain In The 50s F Which Should Favor Marginally Severe Hail Production Despite Weak Wind Profiles And Disorganized Storm Mode. Any Hail Threat Will Wane With Loss Of Heating.

Ga Into The Carolinas...

Low-Level Moisture Will Back Wwd Off The Atlantic With Upper 60s F Dewpoints Common. Heating Will Lead To Around 1500 J/Kg Mlcape By Early Afternoon.

Weak Low-Level Convergence And Upslope Should Help To Produce A Few Clusters Of Thunderstorms. Hail May Approach 1.00 Inch Diameter...With Locally Gusty Winds. Veering Wind Profiles With Height Would Ordinarily Support Some Rotating Cells...But Shear Magnitudes Will Be Weak.


Sat Aug 2 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Scattered Thunderstorms With Minimal Severe Potential Will Exist Across Much Of The Country... Most Notably From The Lower Mississippi Valley To The Mid-Atlantic...And From The Four Corners States Northward Into The Pacific Northwest.

Daytime Heating Beneath A Weakening Upper Ridge Will Again Lead To Scattered Storms From Az/Nm Nwd To The Pacific Nw...With Localized Strong Wind Gusts.

To The E...A Nearly-Stationary Upper Trough Will Remain From Mi Swd Across The Oh And Lower Ms Valleys. Swly Flow Aloft Ahead Of This Trough Will Exist Across The E Coast...With Ely Surface Flow Off The Atlantic Resulting In Moist Air Mass With Poor Lapse Rates.

This Will Favor Mainly A Heavy Rain Threat From The Carolinas Into Pa. Instability Will Generally Be Weak...But The Low-Level Warm Advection Profiles May Favor Weak Mesocyclones Capable Of Wind Gust Enhancement.


Aug 3-7 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Will Remain Very Low Through Much Of The D4-D8 Period Under A Weak Upper Flow Regime.

The Ern Trough Will Finally Lift Newd On Mon/D5...With Low-Amplitude Cyclonic Flow Aloft Remaining Across The Great Lakes Into New England With Only Weak Instability.

Meanwhile...Rich Low-Level Moisture Will Drift Nwd Across The Gulf Coast And Sern States...With Lower To Mid 70s F Likely Through The Period And Mainly A Rain Threat.

Models Do Indicate Some Potential For A Shortwave Trough Around Wed/D7 Across The Nrn Plains Then Developing Ewd In A Low-Amplitude Fashion Into New England By Thu/D8. While Some Wind Threat Could Be Supported By Such A Disturbance... Predictability Is Quite Low At This Time.

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