Severe Weather Threat thru Aug 15

Fri Aug 8 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Isolated Severe Storms Will Be Possible Later Today From Portions Of The Great Plains Into The Tennessee Valley. Locally Strong Wind Gusts And Hail Will Be The Primary Hazards.

The Large-Scale Pattern Is Characterized By A Weak Belt Of Wlys From The Central Rockies To The Srn Appalachians...While The Main Belt Of Wlys Is Confined To Near And N Of The Canadian Border.

The Richest Low-Level Moisture Exists Along And S Of A Slow-Moving Front From Sc Wnwwd To The Mo Bootheel...And Continuing Wwd Into The High Plains. This Effective Front Has Been Shifted Swd By Outflows From Earlier Convection In Ok...And Ongoing Convection Across The Mid South. Though Vertical Shear Will Be Weak Across The Srn States Today...The Thermodynamic Environment Will Favor Some Risk For Isolated Strong/Damaging Downbursts Given Precipitation Loading With Large Buoyancy /Mlcape Near 3000 J Per Kg/ And Pw Values Aoa 1.75 Inches...As Well As Strong Downdrafts With Dcape Aoa 1000 J/Kg.

Otherwise...The Risk For Somewhat More Organized Storms Is Expected This Afternoon/Evening Across Ern Co...Nw Ks...And Sw/S Central Neb.

Moderate Buoyancy /Mlcape Approaching 2000 J Per Kg/ And Some Enhancement To Deep-Layer Vertical Shear Will Occur In Conjunction With A Remnant Midlevel Wave Moving Esewd Over Sw Sd/Wrn Neb... Such That Organized Multicell Clusters And/Or Marginal Supercells Will Be Possible As The Cap Weakens And Storm Coverage Increases This Afternoon. Isolated Damaging Winds And Large Hail Will Be Possible...But There Are Still Some Concerns Regarding Severe Storm Coverage And Magnitude. Thus...Will Maintain Low Wind/Hail Probabilities...But Will Continue To Monitor This Area For Any Increased Severe Storm Risk This Afternoon.

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Sat Aug 9 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for Central High Plains Area...

Scattered Thunderstorms Will Develop Across The Central Plains And Mid Mississippi Valley Saturday. A Few Strong To Severe Storms Will Be Possible Over The Central High Plains. Other Strong Storms May Occur From Portions Of The Ozarks Vicinity To The Lower Mississippi Valley.

Typical Summertime Upper Pattern -- Featuring Generally Weak/Low-Amplitude Flow Field Will Persist This Period. Weak Disturbances Embedded Within A Belt Of 15 To 25 Kt Wnwlys Extending From The Central High Plains To The Southeast U.S. -- Atop A Weak Surface Baroclinic Zone -- Will Be Associated With The Expected Axis Of Most Active Convection Through The Period.

Central High Plains Vicinity...

The Main Zone Of Severe Risk Day 2 Will Likely Remain Across The Central High Plains Vicinity...Just N Of The Wnw-Ese Surface Baroclinic Zone Where Low-Level Selys N Of The Front Veering To Wnwlys At Mid Levels Will Result In Moderate 0-6 Km Bulk Shear.

As Diurnal Heating Of The Moist Boundary Layer Invof The Front Yields Moderate Destabilization In The Wake Of Remnant Day 1
Convection...Afternoon Storm Redevelopment Can Be Expected -- Initially Invof Ern Wy/Ern Co/Wrn Neb. A Few Stronger Storms Will Likely Evolve With Time Given The Background Environment Supportive Of Some Storm Organization/Longevity...Possibly Growing Upscale Linearly And Then Shifting Sewd Across Wrn Ks Into The Evening Hours. Hail -- Especially Early On -- And Locally Damaging Winds Will Be Possible With The Most Vigorous Storms...With The Threat Diminishing Gradually Into The Overnight Hours.

Ar Vicinity Esewd Into Nrn Ms/Nrn Al/Wrn Tn...

Location/Evolution Of Ongoing Convection At The Start Of The Period Will Likely Affect/Modulate Areas Of Potential For New Storm Development Across The Southeastern Quarter Of The U.S. Into The Afternoon Hours. With That Said...Presence Of The Weak Surface Front Across The Mid Ms Valley Area Combined At Least Modest Destabilization Suggests Likelihood For Convective Redevelopment In This Area. While Modest Shear Is Expected Across Most Of The Southeast U.S. During The Day...Model Hints Of Slightly Enhanced Mid-Level Wnwlys Invof The Mid Ms Valley During The Afternoon Could Support A Stronger Storm Or Two Capable Of Marginal Hail/Wind Gusts.

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Sun Aug 10 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Few Strong Storms Will Be Possible From The Central Plains Into The Lower Mississippi Valley Region With A Threat For Locally Strong Wind Gusts And Small To Marginally Severe Hail.

An Upper Low Is Forecast To Cutoff Along The Ca Coast With An Upper Ridge Building Over The Remainder Of The Western States Downstream From This Feature. A Low-Amplitude Pattern With Generally Weak Nwly Flow Aloft Will Reside Over Most Of The Eastern Half Of The Country.

Cntrl Plains Into The Lower Ms Valley...

The Atmosphere Should Become Moderately Unstable In The Vicinity Of A Stalled Front That Will Extend From Ks Sewd Into The Lower Ms And Tn Valley Regions. Thunderstorms Will Likely Develop In The Vicinity Of This Boundary And Along Residual Outflow Boundaries Where Modest /25-30 Kt/ Effective Shear Will Exist. While A Few Strong Storms Are Possible With A Threat For Mainly Gusty Winds And Marginally Severe Hail...Potential For An Organized Severe Event Appears Limited.

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Aug 11-15 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Model Consensus Is That Upper Pattern Will Undergo Amplification With Upper Lows Evolving Over The Ern And Wrn States Resulting In A Blocking Regime By Day 5.

As The Upper Low Amplifies Over The Ern U.S. A Cold Front Will Advance Ewd And Sewd Day 5-6. Indications Are That Nern U.S. Warm Sector Remains East Of The Stronger Vertical Shear Associated With The Evolving Upper Trough. It Appears Pre-Frontal Instability In Nern States Will Be Limited With The Stronger Cape Confined To The Sern States Where Vertical Shear Will Be Weak.

Predictability Decreases Beyond Day 6 Regarding Evolution Of Upper Air Pattern. Modest Severe Threat Could Return To The Plains Day 6-7. However...Overall Severe Potential Will More Than Likely Remain Below The 30% Coverage Threshold Through Most If Not All Of This Period.


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