Severe Weather Threat thru Aug 11

Mon Aug 4 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Thunderstorms Are Expected Across Much Of The Interior West Today.

There Will Be Scattered Strong Storms That May Produce Gusty Winds From Portions Of Northwestern Arizona Into Eastern Nevada And Across Much Of Utah. Other Isolated Strong Storms Capable Of Hail And Wind Are Possible In The Northern High Plains And In The Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley.

Mid To Upper Ms Valley...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Sewd Across The Upper Ms Valley Into The Wrn Great Lakes Region Today.

At The Sfc...Low-Level Moisture Will Be Maximized From Nrn Mo Ewd Across Ia And Ewd Into Wrn Il Where Model Forecasts Develop Moderate Instability By This Afternoon. Scattered Thunderstorms Should Initiate Along This Corridor This Afternoon. Forecast Soundings At 21z For Davenport Ia Show Sbcape Around 1500 J/Kg With Steep Lapse Rates Between 850 To 700 Mb. In Addition...Some Directional Shear Is Forecast With 0-6 Km Shear In The 25 To 30 Kt Range. This Environment May Be Enough For A Marginal Severe Threat.

As Low-Level Lapse Rates Steepen During The Afternoon... Marginally Severe Wind Gusts May Occur With The Stronger Multicells. Hail Will Also Be Possible In Areas That Destabilize The Most.

Nrn High Plains...

An Upper-Level Ridge Will Be In Place Across The High Plains Today As A Lee Sfc Trough Develops Across The Region. The Sfc Trough Will Reinforce Upslope Flow From Ern Mt Sewd Into Wrn Sd With Sfc Dewpoints Across The Nrn High Plains Ranging From The Mid 50s In Cntrl Mt To Near 60 F In The Wrn Dakotas.

As Instability Increases During The Day Along This Corridor...Thunderstorms Should Initiate In The Foothills Of The Nrn Rockies And Ewd Across The Nrn High Plains. Forecast Soundings At 00z/Tue For Glasgow And Rapid City Show Sbcape In The 100o To 2000 J/Kg Range With Steep Lapse Rates Between 700 And 500 Mb. In Addition...Some Directional Shear Is Forecast In The Low To Mid-Levels Resulting In 0-6 Km Shear Of 25 To 35 Kt. This Environment May Be Enough For Marginally Severe Storms With Potential For Strong Wind Gusts And Hail.

Intermountain West...

An Upper-Level Low In Ern Ca This Morning Will Move Nwd Into Wrn Nevada This Afternoon. A Plume Of Mid-Level Moisture Evident On Water Vapor Imagery Should Move Nwd Across The Intermountain West. As Sfc Temps Warm...Storm Coverage Should Gradually Increase Across Ern Nv And Nw Az Nwd Across Ut. Forecast Soundings At Las Vegas Nv And Salt Lake City Ut At 21z Show Weak Deep-Layer Shear With Very Steep Lapse Rates Exceeding 8.0 C/Km. This May Be Enough For Marginally Severe Downbursts As Pulse Storms Develop During The Late Afternoon.

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Tue Aug 5 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Scattered Strong Thunderstorms May Develop Across The Central Plains And Mid Mississippi Valley Tuesday. Isolated Large Hail And Damaging Winds Are Possible.

Cntrl Plains/Mid Ms Valley...

Upper Low Over The Lower Co River Valley Should Gradually Lift North Over The Next Few Days And Fragment Over The Great Basin. A Piece Of This System Is Expected To Eject Newd Across Ut Into Wy Before Topping The High Plains Ridge Over Wrn Sd/Neb Near Peak Heating Tuesday. Latest Model Guidance Is Reasonably Consistent Regarding This Evolution With Weak Height Falls Expected As Far South Has The Neb/Ks Border During The Overnight Hours.

Large Scale Ascent Should Increase Across The Cntrl Plains Along/North Of Trailing Front That Will Extend Across Neb Into Srn Ia/Nrn Mo During The Peak Of The Diurnal Heating Cycle. Low Level Warm Advection Will Likely Prove Responsible For Episodic Bouts Of Elevated Convection North Of The Boundary Through The Period But The Activity Is Not Forecast To Be Particularly Intense Due To Marginal Shear/Instability. Of Some Concern Will Be Convection That Develops Near The Wind Shift After 21z Immediately Ahead Of Short-Wave Trough.

While Deep Layer Shear Is Not Expected To Be That Strong...Uvv Should Increase Such That Weakly Capped Tstms Could Loosely Organize Into Small Mcs-Type Clusters. Both The Nam And Gfs Agree Llj Will Intensify Across The Cntrl Plains...Impinging On Frontal Zone Across Neb Into Swrn Ia During The Overnight Hours. At This Time Buoyancy/Shear Do Not Appear Adequate To Warrant More Than 5 Percent Severe Probs For Hail/Wind.

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Wed Aug 6 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Scattered Strong Thunderstorms Will Develop From The Central Plains Into The Ohio Valley. Gusty Winds And Hail May Be Noted With The Strongest Activity.

Central Plains To Oh Valley...

Weak Short-Wave Trough Will Eject Across The Cntrl Plains Into Wrn Mo By 07/00z. This Feature Is Expected To Enhance Uvv Along A Synoptic Front That Will Stretch Along The Ks/Neb Border...Ewd Into Cntrl Il/Indiana. Latest Model Guidance Is Fairly Consistent Regarding Strong Boundary-Layer Heating South Of The Front From Ks/Mo Into Il Where Sfc-3km Lapse Rates Are Expected To Approach 9 C/Km.

While Low-Level Warm Advection Will Likely Aid A Band Of Elevated Convection North Of The Front... Afternoon Convection That Forms Near The Front Should Ingest Greatest Buoyancy Enhancing The Prospect For Gusty Downdrafts And Hail. Will Go With A 5 Percent Severe Probs To Account For These Threats As Mean Wly Flow Along This Frontal Zone Is Forecast To Be 15-25kt.

Multi-Cell Convective Threat Should Spread From West To East Across The Mid Ms Into The Oh Valley During The Overnight Hours.

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Aug 7-11 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Potential For Significant Organized Severe Thunderstorms Should Remain Low Through The Upcoming Medium-Range Period.

Ewd-Moving Short-Wave Trough Is Expected To Eject Into The Base Of Nern U.S. Trough Before Exiting Off The Middle Atlantic Coast Late In The Day4 Period. This Feature Could Enhance Convective Potential Along Srn Fringes Of Long-Wave Trough Where Modest Mid-Level Flow Should Reside Thursday. While Robust Convection May Ultimately Evolve Along This Corridor It Is Not Clear Sufficient Instability/Shear Will Be Present For Organized Severe Necessary For An Outlook This Period.

Beyond The Day4 Period...Large Scale Flow Will Be Too Weak To Warrant Any Meaningful Threat For Organized Severe.


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