Severe Weather Threat thru Apr 4

Fri Mar 28 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Central/E Tx...to Parts Of Central Gulf Area...

Arklatex...

Late Morning Water Vapor Loops Show A Well-Defined Shortwave Trough Over West Tx And Northern Mexico. This Feature Will Progress Eastward Across The Arklatex Region This Evening...And Into The Central Gulf Coast States By 12z Sat Morning.

A Moist And Very Unstable Airmass Has Become Established Ahead Of The Trough Over East Tx And Parts Of La/Ar. This Will Set The Stage For A Round Of Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon And Evening.

Scattered Showers Are Ongoing Over North Tx At This Time...In A
Region Of Low Level Warm Advection Near The Surface Low.

This Activity Is Elevated Above A Strong Capping Inversion Shown On 12z Soundings.

Continued Daytime Heating And Lift Will Help To Weaken The Cap By Mid/Late Afternoon...Aiding In The Initiation Of Thunderstorms Along/Ahead Of The Surface Dryline Extending Roughly From Prx - Ftw - Sat.

Effective Shear Values Are Favorable For Organized/Rotating Storms...And Very Steep Mid Level Lapse Rates Will Promote Intense Updrafts. However...Low Level Wind Fields Are Forecast To Be Quite Weak Limiting The Tornado Threat. Discrete Supercells Are Expected Through The Afternoon...With Storms Possibly Growing Upscale Into Broken Lines/Clusters As They Spread Eastward Into Parts Ar/La.

Large Hail /Potentially Greater Than 2 Inch/ Appears To Be The Main Threat...Although The Potential For More Widespread Damaging Winds Would Increase If Storms Congeal This Evening.

Fl Panhandle...

An Ongoing Shield Of Showers And Thunderstorms Is Affecting Much Of The Central Gulf Coast Region...Including A Bowing Line Segment
Currently Over The Fl Panhandle. This Bow Has Occasionally Shown
Indications Of Locally Damaging Winds...And May Continue To Pose A
Risk Of Isolated Severe For A Few More Hours Until It Moves
Completely Offshore.

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Sat Mar 29 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Parts Of Sern States To Carolinas & Se Va...

The Track And Evolution Of Two Shortwave Troughs Moving Across The Great Plains Toward The Ms Valley During D1 Will Aid In Tstm
Development For D2 Across The Southeast To Mid Atlantic States.

The Trough Located In The Central/Nrn Plains...With The Center Of The Circulation Evident In Satellite Imagery Over Srn Sd This
Morning...Is Expected To Undergo Strong Amplification On Saturday As It Tracks From The Mid Ms Valley Region To The Mid Atlantic And Sern States.

This System Should Begin To Take On A Negative Tilt Saturday Night.

Meanwhile...The Shortwave Trough Moving From Tx To The Central Gulf Coast States Today/Tonight...Is Forecast To Track Newd Across The Slight Risk Area During The First Half Of D2.

At The Surface...An Area Of Low Pressure Attendant To The Stronger ...Amplifying Mid-Upper Level Trough Should Be Located Over Ern Tn/Ky Area At 12z Saturday And Track Newd Into The Central Appalachians By 30/00z.

Models Suggest Secondary Surface Low Development Will Be Possible Along A Wedge Front In The Wrn Carolinas Or Possibly In Swrn Va By Early Saturday Afternoon.

This Low Should Become The Primary Synoptic Low...Continuing To
Deepen...As It Tracks Ewd Through Nc Or Srn Va And Offshore Late
Saturday Night.

A Trailing Cold Front Will Sweep Through The Sern States During The Day And The Carolinas Overnight.

A Wedge Front Should Set Up Across The Cntrl And Srn Appalachians With A Warm Front Likely To Lift Nwd Through Ern Va.

Sern Va/Central And Ern Carolinas/Srn Ga And Nrn Fl...

Extensive Cloudiness /Multi-Layer/ And Ongoing Convection Saturday
Morning Will Result In A Lack Of Stronger Surface Heating.

This Will Subsequently Inhibit Greater Destabilization Across The Warm Sector And Thus Limit The Potential For Higher Severe Weather Probabilities This Forecast Period.

Lower 60s Dewpoints Should Return Nwd Across The Carolinas Into Sern Va...With Values Into The Middle 60s Over The Srn Extent Of The Slight Risk Area.

Modest Midlevel Lapse Rates 6-6.5 C/Km And The Aforementioned Surface Moisture Distribution Should Result In Weaker Instability With Nwd Extent...While Mucape Over Srn Ga/Nrn Fl Could Be Aoa 1000 J/Kg Saturday Afternoon.

Early Convection Should Be Most Concentrated Within Zone Of Ascent
Along The Warm Conveyor Belt From Al And Ga Into The Srn
Appalachians.

Despite The Marginal Thermodynamic Environment...This Activity And New Convection/Tstms Should Develop Enewd Across The Warm Sector Through The Afternoon...Further Aided By Dpva Attendant To The Lead Shortwave Trough.

Moderate To Strong Deep Layer Winds And 35-45 Kt Effective Shear Expected Into The Afternoon Suggest These Storms Will Pose At Least A Modest Threat For Strong To Severe Storms.

Some Potential Remains For Slightly Greater Destabilization Within A
Narrow Corridor In The Wake Of Warm Conveyor Belt Convective Bands And Ahead Of The Cold Front.

If This Occurs...Then Stronger Height Falls Spreading Into This Region With The Amplifying Trough Suggest The Potential For A Greater Severe Weather Threat As Storms Develop Along The Cold Front From The Carolinas Into Ern Ga...And Possibly Srn Va.

Favorable Deep Layer Shear Would Support Storm Organization
With Damaging Winds The Primary Threat. However...Vertically-Veering Low-Mid Level Winds Suggest A Tornado Threat Cannot Be Ruled Out.

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Sun Mar 30 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Quasi-Zonal Synoptic Regime Will Prevail Sunday With Another In A
Series Of Shortwave Troughs Forecast To Move From The Great Basin Region Sunday Morning Into The Cntrl/Nrn Plains Overnight.

This Feature Will Induce Lee Cyclogenesis That Will Develop Over The Cntrl Plains During The Day With Trailing Pre-Frontal Trough
Extending Swd Through The Cntrl/Srn High Plains.

Cntrl Plains Area...

A Strong Sly Llj Will Develop Over The Cntrl And Srn Plains East Of
The Developing Lee Cyclone.

However...Owing To Saturdays Gulf Frontal Intrusion...There Will Not Be Sufficient Time For A Significant Return Of Low-Level Moisture... With Dewpoints Only In The 30s And 40s Expected In Warm Sector.

Nevertheless...Steep Lapse Rates /8+ C/Km/ Associated With An Ewd Advecting Eml Will Overspread Much Of This Region Resulting In At Least Weak Instability...But A Capped Boundary Layer. Deep Mixing May Contribute To High-Based Convection By Late Afternoon Over The High Plains.

This Activity Will Likely Be Shallow...But A Few Updrafts May Become Deep Enough For A Few Lightning Strikes.

Overnight...The Zone Of Ascent Associated With The Progressive Shortwave Trough Will Continue Interacting With The Steep Lapse Rate Environment As It Develops Ewd Through The Cntrl Plains... Likely Contributing To Weak Instability Along With A Few Thunderstorms Rooted Aoa The 700 Mb Layer.

Cntrl Rocky Mountain Region...

Mid-Level Ascent Attending The Shortwave Trough Interacting With The Steep Lapse Rate Environment Along With Orographic Forcing Likely Will Contribute To Convective Development And A Possibly A Few Thunderstorms Over The Cntrl Rocky Mountain Region During The Afternoon.

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Mar 31-Apr 4 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Models Have Been Fairly Consistent Maintaining A Progressive And
Active Pattern In The 4-8 Period With A Series Of Relatively
Low-Amplitude Waves Traversing The Country.

Wed /Day 6/...Shortwave Trough Forecast To Move Through The Plains Day 4 And Eventually The Great Lakes Day 5 Will Be Starved Of
Moisture.

However...The Next In A Series Of Shortwave Troughs Is Forecast To Move Into The Cntrl/Srn Plains As A Neutral Tilt Or Slightly Positive Tilt Feature Later Day 6.

Models Including Most Ensemble Members Have Demonstrated Run-To-Run Consistency As Well As Consistency Among Themselves Regarding This Feature.

An Axis Of Partially Modified Gulf Air Will Likely Return Nwd Beneath Steep Lapse Rates Through The Srn Plains And Lower-Mid Ms Valley Area As A Llj Develops Ahead Of Attendant Lee Cyclone.

Meanwhile Wind Profiles Will Increase Ahead Of The Upper Trough. It Appears That Clouds And Early Convection Will Be Possible Along The Conveyor Belt.

However In Wake Of This Activity Potential Will Exist For Additional More Isolated Storms To Develop Along The Dryline...Especially From Ok Into Nrn Tx And Subsequently Move Through Warm Sector.

Given Slightly Positive Tilt Nature Of The Upper Trough...Capping Could Be A Concern...Especially With Srn Extent Into Tx.

Though Mesoscale Details Remain Unclear At This Time...Overall Pattern Appears Sufficient For A Higher End Severe Threat From A Part Of The Srn Plains Into The Lower-Mid Ms Valley Region.

Models Become Increasingly Dispersive And Uncertainty Increases
Beyond Day 6.


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