Severe Weather Threat thru Apr 20

Sun Apr 13 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for S Plains...Arklatex...Low/Mid Ms Valley... Ozarks & Low Oh Valley...

Mid Ms Valley/Arklatex...

The Latest Sfc Analysis Shows A 996 Mb Low In Far Ne Mo With A Cold Front Extending Sswwd Across Cntrl Mo And Into Ern Ok Along Which A Nearly Continuous Squall Line Is Ongoing.

The Squall Line Will Continue To Move Esewd Across The Remainder Of Mo...Ern Ok And Across Ar This Evening.

The Airmass Ahead Of The Squall Line Is Weakly Unstable With The 00z Sounding At Springfield Showing About 800 J/Kg Of Sbcape.

In Spite Of This...Large-Scale Ascent Associated With A Cntrl Plains Shortwave Trough...Enhanced Low-Level Convergence Along The Front And Strong Deep-Layer Shear Should Maintain A Severe Threat With The Line Through The Mid Evening.

Wind Damage Will Be The Primary Threat And Have Retained The 30 Percent Wind Damage Probability For Parts Of Srn Mo...Nw Ar And Far Ern Ok.

Hail Will Also Be Possible With The More Intense Cells Embedded In
The Line.

The Severe Threat Associated With The Line Is Expected To Gradually Diminish Late This Evening As The Line Approaches Cntrl
Il...Wrn Ky And Wrn Tn Where Instability Is Much Weaker.

Ncntrl-Ne Tx/Arklatex/Lower Ms Valley...

The Latest Sfc Analysis Shows A Cold Front Moving Into North Tx With
A Sharply Defined Dryline Extending Swwd Across Wcntrl Tx.

An Isolated Supercell Is Ongoing West Of Waco.

The Fort Worth 00z Sounding Shows Sbcape Of 2400 J/Kg With 50 Kt Of 0-6 Km Shear And 850 To 500 Mb Lapse Rates Around 8.50 C/Km.

This Environment Should Support A Large Hail Threat As Long As The Supercell West Of Waco Can Persist.

A Severe Threat Should Also Develop This Evening Across Ne Tx... Sw Ar And Nw La As Frontal Convection Moves Sewd Out Of Se Ok.

The Greatest Potential For Severe Should Exist At The Tail End Of The Line Where A Few Supercells Are Ongoing.

This Activity Could Produce Wind Damage And Isolated Large Hail.

A Tornado Or Two Can Not Be Ruled Out As Well.

Model Forecasts Maintain The Squall Line Sewd Across Srn Ar...Nrn La And Into Wrn Ms During The Overnight Period.

Forecast Soundings Late Tonight At Vicksburg Ms Show Mlcape Of 800 To 1000 J/Kg With 50 Kt Of 0-6 Km Shear And Strongly Veering
Winds With Height From The Sfc To 700 Mb.

This Suggests That An Isolated Severe Threat May Continue After Midnight In This Region.

Wind Damage Would Be The Primary Threat But An Isolated Tornado
Threat May Also Develop With Rotating Cells Embedded In The Line.

Nrn And Cntrl Il...

Several Bands Of Convection Are Ongoing Across Nrn-Cntrl Il Extending Nwd Into The Chicago Area.

The Convection Is Located Near A Warm Frontal Boundary In Nrn Il With Additional Convection Located North Of The Boundary In A Cool Airmass.

Due To Strong Low-Level Shear Profiles Associated With A 50 To 60 Kt Low-Level Jet Analyzed In Wrn Il...A Brief Tornado Can Not Be Ruled Out.

However...Low-Level Lapse Rates Not Steep And Instability Is Weak
Suggesting Any Severe Threat Should Remain Very Isolated.

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Mon Apr 14 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Gulf Coast States & Low Ms Valley...

A Lead Shortwave Impulse Over The Cntrl/Srn Plains Will Dampen As It Ejects Towards The Great Lakes/Midwest By Mon Morning...In Response To A Longwave Trough Becoming Established Across Cntrl Canada/Conus.

Primary Surface Cyclone Associated With The Lead Impulse Will Track From The Great Lakes Into Quebec. Attendant Cold Front Will Push Ewd Through The Midwest And Sewd Across The Wrn/Cntrl Gulf Coast...With An Expansive Anticyclone Over The Great Plains.

Gulf Coast States...

Wrf-Based Convection-Allowing Model Guidance Suggest An Mcs Should Be Ongoing At 12z/Mon Centered From W-Cntrl Al To Nrn La...Aided By Low-Level Waa. As The Lead Shortwave Impulse Progresses Away From This Region...Weakening Kinematic Fields And Lesser Instability With Ern Extent Should Result In Diminishing Mcs Intensity During The Mid/Late Morning.

To The Sw Of Attendant Convective Outflow...Air Mass Ahead Of The Cold Front Will Destabilize With Diurnal Heating Amidst A Plume Of Middle To Upper 60s Surface Dew Points.

This Along With Strong Frontal Convergence Will Be Sufficient To Minimize Convective Inhibition By Midday.

Scattered To Numerous Clusters Of Storms Will Likely Develop During The Afternoon.

Deep-Layer Wind Fields Should Be At A Relative Minimum Early In The Afternoon...But Still Sufficient For Organized Multicell Clusters And A Few Supercells. Late In The Day...700-500 Mb Flow Will Strengthen In Response To The Amplifying Longwave Trough.

This Could Support An Upswing In Convective Intensity/Organization Potentially Evolving Near The Juxtaposition Of The Front/Remnant Outflow Boundary.

Still...Convection-Allowing Guidance Depicts Large Spread In Simulated Activity With Poor Mesoscale Predictability At This Time Frame.

Although An Enhanced Corridor Of Severe Probabilities May Become Evident Later...Low Confidence In The Spatiotemporal Evolution Suggests Broader/Lower Probabilities Are Appropriate Attm.

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Tue Apr 15 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Carolinas/Southeast Va...

Progressive/Broadly Cyclonic Upper Flow Will Encompass Much Of The Conus Tuesday...With The Primary Convective Potential Tied To The East-Northeastward Transition Of An Upper Trough And Cold Front Across The Southeast States.

Coastal Southeast States/Carolinas...

While Some Guidance Variability Exists At The Day 3 Juncture
Regarding Timing/Amplification...It Is Likely That A Potent Southern
Stream Shortwave Trough/Mid-Upper Jet Will Overspread The Southeast States Tuesday.

Extensive Convection Will Likely Accompany The Eastward Advancing Cold Front...While Low-Level Moistening Otherwise Occurs Ahead Of The Front /Lower To Middle 60s F Surface Dewpoints/.

It Is Not Entirely Clear How Much Convection Will Precede The Cold
Front...But Pre-Frontal Moistening/Modest Destabilization And A Very
Strong Low-Level/Deep Layer Wind Field Would Support The Potential
For Stronger/Fast-Moving Line Segments And Embedded Supercells Into The Afternoon.

As Such...At Least Some Potential For Damaging Winds And A Few Tornadoes Will Seemingly Exist Across The Piedmont/Coastal Areas Of The Carolinas Into Va.

Farther South...Other More Isolated Strong/Severe Tstms Will Be Possible Across Southeast Ga/Fl Peninsula Ahead Of The Advancing
Cold Front.

Relatively Strong Deep Layer Shear Will Coincide With Weak To Moderate Buoyancy...Although Low-Level Shear/Near-Frontal Convergence Will Be Modest. Regardless...Some Of The Strongest Storms May Be Capable Of Isolated Instances Of Wind/Hail Through The Afternoon.

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Apr 16-20 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

A Relatively Quiet Pattern Is Expected To Result In A Limited / Below-Average Severe Weather Potential Mid/Late Week Across The Conus.

This Will Largely Be Attributable To Meager Moisture Availability In The Wake Of The Early Week Frontal Advancement Across The Gulf Of Mexico...As A Split Flow Pattern/Regime Of Weaker Westerlies Otherwise Evolves.

As An Upper Trough Amplifies Over The Central Conus...Tstm Potential May Increase Across The Lower Ms Valley/Gulf Coast States By Around Day 6/Friday.

However...Moisture Availability/Destabilization Should Remain Meager...Thus Likely Precluding A Meaningful Severe Potential.

Although Predictability Is Quite Limited...Convective Potential Could Gradually Increase Next Weekend...Initially Across The Southern High Plains In Association With A Slow-Moving Southern Stream Trough.


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