Severe Weather Threat thru Apr 14

Mon Apr 7 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Nrn Fl and Sern Ga thru Ern Carolinas...
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for part of Oh Valley...

Nrn Fl...Sern Ga Through The Ern Carolinas...

Primary Severe Threat This Evening Will Persist From Nrn Fl Through
Sern Ga In Association With An Mcs With Damaging Wind Gusts Along With A Couple Of Tornadoes Possible.

The Primary Severe Threat In Sc Has Shifted To Near The Coast Due To A Sewd Advancing Outflow Boundary.

Otherwise...Very Isolated Strong To Severe Storms Will Remain Possible Next Few Hours The Along Ern Nc Portion Of The Conveyor Belt.

Upper Oh Valley This Afternoon Into Evening...

Visible Satellite Data Suggest That Clouds Will Limit Robust Heating
Today.

Should More Substantial Cloud Breaks Develop...Steepening Low To Midlevel Lapse Rates And Dewpoints Rising Into The Lower 50s May
Yield Pockets Of Weak Surface-Based Instability /I.E. Mlcape Of
250-500 J Per Kg/.

Given The Backed Surface Winds Owing To The Isallobaric Response To The Migratory Surface Low And The Newd Progression Of The 90-100+ Kt Midlevel Jet Streak Into The Region...The Setup May Support A Broken Band Of Low-Topped Supercells And/Or Bowing Structures With A Risk For A Couple Tornadoes...Locally Damaging Winds And Perhaps Some Hail.

This Threat Should Diminish By Mid To Late Evening As The Boundary Layer Begins To Cool And Stabilize.

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Tue Apr 8 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Highly Amplified Pattern Will Persist Tuesday With A Gradual Ewd
Progression Of The Upper Trough Through The Ern U.S. As Well As An Upstream Ridge Across The Wrn States.

Embedded Within The Synoptic Trough A Vort Max Currently Located Over The Middle Ms Valley Will Lift Newd...Reaching The Nern States And Great Lakes By 12z Tuesday.

Attendant Surface Low Is Expected Over Ny With Trailing Cold Front
Swd Along The Eastern U.S. Seaboard Into Nrn Fl Tuesday Morning.

This Front Will Move Off The Atlantic Coast Early Tuesday With
Trailing Portion Advancing Sewd Through The Remainder Of The Fl
Peninsula During The Day.

Fl...

A Moist Boundary With Upper 60s Dewpoints Will Reside In The Fl
Pre-Frontal Warm Sector...But Relatively Warm Temperatures Aloft
With -6c To -8c Temperatures At 500 Mb Will Contribute To Very Poor
Mid-Level Lapse Rates /Aob 5c/Km/.

This Will Result In Modest Instability And An Overall Marginal Thermodynamic Environment.

Thunderstorms Will Likely Continue Developing Along The Advancing
Cold Front Where Strong Mid-Upper Flow Associated With The High
Amplitude Trough Will Result In Favorable Deep Shear /50-60 Kt/ For
Organized Storms.

Pre-Convective Diabatic Warming Will Steepen Low-Level Lapse Rates And Suggests At Least A Low-End Threat For Isolated Strong To Damaging Wind Gusts Given The Favorable Kinematic Environment.

The Poor Mid-Level Lapse Rates Suggests Updrafts Will Not Be Particularly Robust.

Lower Ms Valley And Wrn Tn Valley Area...

Limited Post-Frontal Moisture With 40s Near-Sfc Dewpoints Will
Reside In This Region.

Steep Lapse Rates Associated With Cold Air Aloft Within A Progressive Thermal Trough Axis /-25c At 500 Mb/ And Pockets Of Diabatic Warming Should Result In Up To 500 J/Kg Mlcape.

As The Boundary Layer Destabilizes...Thunderstorms Will Likely
Increase In Coverage During The Day North Of Cyclonic Upper Jet
Axis.

Given Sufficient Diabatic Warming...Inverted-V Boundary Layers Will Likely Develop.

A Few Of These Storms May Become Capable Of Producing Strong Wind Gusts And Small To Marginally Severe Hail During The Afternoon.

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Wed Apr 9 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

A Relatively Dry And Stable Air Mass Will Reside Across The Entire
Conus On Wed With An Upper Trough Along The E Coast And Cold Front Well Offshore.

Behind This Front...High Pressure Will Be Centered Over The Gulf Of Mexico...Maintaining Offshore Winds.

To The W...A Shortwave Trough Will Move Sewd Across The Nrn Plains With Attendant Surface Trough.

Steep Lapse Rate Profiles And Meager Moisture Will Result In Diurnal Thunderstorms From Wy Into Mn.

Given The Steep Lapse Rates And Increased Nwly Flow...Fast Moving Storms May Be Capable Of Strong To Marginally Severe Wind Gusts.

However...Given The Marginal Threat And Low Predictability...Will
Not Introduce Any Severe Probabilities.

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Apr 10-14 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Through Much Of The D4-8 Period...A Polar Vortex Will Be Situated
Over Hudson Bay...With Periodic Shortwave Troughs Rotating Around
And Affecting The Great Lakes Into New England Region.

This Pattern Will Result In Minimal Instability For Thunderstorms Although Some Sly Return Flow Will Increase Across The Gulf Of Mexico And Srn Plains.

By Sun D7...Models Depict A Srn Stream Shortwave Trough Emerging
Into The Srn Plains...But Also Phasing With A Large Trough To The N.

This Configuration Should Result In A Nwd Return Of Moisture And
Instability Across The Srn Plains.

However...A Surging Area Of High Pressure Also Appears Probable... Which Would Certainly Decrease Tornado Potential And To A Lesser Degree Hail And Wind.

While Some Severe Weather Would Be Possible In This Scenario... Potential Appears Low.


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