Severe Weather Threat thru Apr 12

Sat Apr 5 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

Progressive Split Flow Will Prevail Over The Lwr 48 Through Sun.

The Main Upr-Lvl Feature Of Note As Far As Tstms Are Concerned Is Srn Branch Trough Now Over Wrn Az.

This Trough Should Advance Only Slowly E Through The Period As Strong Nly Flow On Its Upstream Side /Off The Ca Cst/ Retards The Troughs Ewd Motion.

The Gradual Ewd Progression Of The Trough Will... Nevertheless... Strengthen Low To Mid-Lvl Waa Regime Now Developing Over The Srn Plns/Lwr Ms Vly.

The Attendant Increase In Low-Lvl Moisture Transport Will Serve To
Increase Tstm Chances Over Cntrl And E Tx...And The Gulf Cst States ...Later In The Period.

Se Tx/Sw La Early Sun...

Cold Front Associated With Yesterday's Storm System Has Become
Nearly Stnry Over The Nw And N Cntrl Gulf Of Mexico.

The Boundary Should Remain Nearly Stnry Today Before Edging N Toward The Upr Tx And La Gulf Csts Early Sun In Response To Approaching Upr Trough.

Strengthening Low-Lvl Waa/Moisture Transport And Weak Mid-Lvl Ascent May Support The Development Of Sctd Elevated Tstms Late Tngt Or...More Likely...Early Sun Over E Cntrl And Se Tx...Within/Above
Eml In Moderate Sw Flow Aloft.

While Storm Coverage/Strength Likely Will Further Increase Beyond 12z Sun...With Mucape Of 500-1000 J/Kg And 50 Kt Wswly Cloud-Layer Shear...A Few Storms May Yield Marginally Svr Hail.

Lwr Ms Vly/Deep South...

Persistent Elevated Convection/Storms Now Off The Cntrl Gulf Cst
Should Redevelop Nwd Into Interior Parts Of La/Ms/Al/Ga Tngt And
Early Sun As Low-Lvl Waa/Moisture Transport Strengthen Well Ahead Of Approaching Trough.

More Limited Elevated Buoyancy/Mid-Lvl Lapse Rates Relative To Points W Suggest A More Limited Potential For Svr Hail.

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Sun Apr 6 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Sern Tx, South (La, Ms, Al) & West Fl Panhandle...

An Upper Trough Will Move Ewd Across The Srn Plains During The Day And Into The Lower Ms Valley Overnight.

In Advance Of This Trough...Sly Low-Level Winds Will Increase Across The Gulf Of Mexico And Will Bring Substantial Moisture Nwd Inland Across La And Sern Tx During The Day Then Into Srn Ms And Al Overnight.

Low Pressure Will Form Across Swrn La By 00z...And Will Develop Newd Overnight Into Nrn Ms With A Slow-Moving Trailing Sfc Trough.

The Increasing Moisture...Shear...And Forcing For Ascent Will Result In A Threat Of Tornadoes As Well As Damaging Winds.

Far Sern Tx...La...Ms...Al...Wrn Fl Panhandle...

The Rapidly Returning Moisture Will Result In Early Widespread Rain And Elevated Thunderstorms For Sern Tx Ewd Across La...Ms...And Al.

Some Of This Activity Could Contain Mainly Non-Severe Hail.

Destabilization Will Occur South Of The Morning Precipitation With
Areas Of Heating And The Advection Of Upper 60s F Dewpoints.

Increasing Low-Level Confluence Will Exist Across The Entire Warm
Sector And Lift Will Also Increase Near The Surface Low.

In Addition...Effects Of Residual Outflow Boundaries May Remain.

All These Factors Will Serve As Potential Foci For Thunderstorm
Development During The Day And Overnight.

Hodographs Will Be Quite Favorable For Supercells...And Will
Increase In Size Sunday night As The Low Deepens And The Upper Jet Strengthens.

In Addition...The Wind Shift Along The Cold Front Will Be Gradual... Further Favoring Supercells Rather Than A Linear Mode.

However...Gradual Back-Building Of Storms Is Likely With Time As The Winds Veer...Still...Tornadoes Will Remain A Threat.

Although Mesoscale Details Are Not Clear...A Strong Tornado Cannot
Be Ruled Out Especially From Srn La Into Srn Ms.

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Mon Apr 7 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms Across Nrn Fl...Ga...Sc...Nc...

An Amplified Upper Trough Will Move From The Lower Ms Valley Ewd
Toward The Appalachians During The Day With Upper Low Deepening Across Lower Mi.

Strong Swly Flow Aloft Will Overspread The Sern States With Low-Level Moisture Rapidly Advancing Nwd Across The Carolinas Where The Antecedent Air Mass Will Be Dry.

A Cold Front Will Stretch From The Wrn Carolinas Swwd Across Ga And The Fl Panhandle At 00z...With A Warm Front Lifting Nwd Across The Carolinas.

Lift Along Both Fronts Will Serve As Foci For Storm Development Through The Period.

Elsewhere...The Thermal Trough Axis Aloft Will Extend Swd Across The Plains...With 500 Mb Temperatures Around -25 C Helping To Create Small Amounts Of Instability For A Few Weak Daytime Thunderstorms From The Mid Mo River Valley Swd Into Ern Tx.

Sern States...

Widespread Clouds...Both Low And High...Will Limit Heating Over Much Of The Warm Sector.

However...A Return Of 60s F Dewpoints And Lift Along The Cold Front Will Result In Thunderstorms Advancing Ewd Through The Period.

Wind Shear Will Be Strong And Will Favor Both Supercells And Fast Moving Bowing Structures.

While Damaging Wind Appears To Be The Main Threat...A Few Tornadoes Will Be Possible As Well...Especially Along The Warm Front From Nern Ga Into The Carolinas Where Storms May Encounter Increased Low-Level Shear.

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Apr 8-12 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

On Tue/D4...A Large Upper Trough Will Exist Across The Ern Conus
With A Ridge Over The W.

An Associated Cold Front Will Already Be Off The E Coast Tue Morning With Drier Air Behind.

While Some Moisture Will Exist Over Srn Fl...The Severe Threat Is Expected To Be Minimal As Winds Veer Quickly.

The Pattern Will Remain Stable And Unfavorable For Severe Weather
Until About Fri/D7 When Models Indicate A Srn Stream Trough
Affecting The Swrn States And Srn Plains.

However...This Setup Does Not Appear Overly Significant Given Rather Poor Moisture Return With A Surface Ridge Upstream Across The Sern States.

Therefore...Potential Is Too Low For Any 30 Percent Or Greater Areas.


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