Severe Weather Threat thru Apr 11

Fri Apr 4 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Cumberland Plateau To Ms/Al...

A Vigorous Shortwave Trough Over The Upper Midwest Will Shift Ewd
Across The Great Lakes Through Early Sat.

Associated Surface Cyclone Over Far Se Ia Should Reach Lake Huron This Afternoon.

This Low Will Occlude As Attendant Cold Front Sweeps Ewd Through The Midwest. Trailing Portion Of Cold Front Will Have A Slower Sewd Progression In The Deep South/Gulf Coast.

Cumberland Plateau To Ms/Al..

Extensive Convective Overturning Is Prevalent From The Lower Oh
Valley To Texarkana This Morning.

Most Of This Activity Should Be Ongoing At 12z Within A Swath Of 50s/60s Surface Dew Points And Sufficient Deep-Layer Shear For Organized Line Segments.

But Convection Should Largely Outpace The Plume Of Moderate To Strong Instability W Of The Lower Ms Valley.

In Addition...Low-Level Winds And Forcing For Ascent Will Subside With Srn Extent As The Primary Cyclone Shifts Newd.

Thus...Mcs/S Should Be In A Weakening State During The Late Morning...But With A Risk For Isolated Damaging Winds.

In The Wake Of Morning Activity Where Pockets Of Stronger Heating Occur...Isolated Storms Should Develop Along The Cold Front.

A Modest Combination Of Shear/Instability/Lift May Pose A Separate
/Largely Marginal/ Severe Risk.

Upper Oh Valley To Lake Erie...

Large Mcs Over The Lower Oh Valley Should Translate Ewd Along A
Large-Scale Convective Outflow Remnant From Extensive Convection On Thu.

N Of This Mcs...Daytime Destabilization Should Be Slowed By Abundant Cloud Cover And Extensive Warm Sector Overturning.

Although Low Confidence Exists...If Pockets Of Afternoon Heating Can Occur Ahead Of The Cold Front...Meager Buoyancy May Aid In Isolated Storm Development.

Should This Occur...Low/Deep-Layer Wind Profiles Would Be Supportive For Rotating Updrafts With A Risk Of A Tornado And Locally Damaging Winds.

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Sat Apr 5 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

An Upper Trough Will Move Ewd Across The Four Corners States And
Into The Cntrl/Srn High Plains By Sun Morning As An Upper Ridge
Approaches The W Coast.

E Of This Trough...A Large Area Of High Pressure Will Encompass Much Of The Ern U.S. As A Leading Shortwave Trough Exits Across New England. This Will Keep The More Substantial Boundary Layer Moisture Offshore.

Sern Nm Into Swrn Tx...

Strong Heating Will Occur Beneath Cooling Profiles Aloft With The
Upper Trough.

This Will Steepen Lapse Rates Resulting In A Conditionally-Unstable Profile.

Moisture Levels Will Be Meager With Boundary Layer Dewpoints In The 20s And 30s F.

While High-Based Thunderstorms Will Be Possible During The Late Afternoon In The Low Pressure Trough...Weak Low-Level Winds... Weak Instability And Lack Of Strong Forcing For Ascent Should Preclude Any Severe Threat.

Sern Tx Ewd Across The Gulf Coast States...

While The Surface Air Mass Will Be Cool And Stable...Moisture Will
Lurk Just Offshore And Will Return Nwd In An Elevated Sense As The
Next Trough Amplifies To The W.

Isentropic Lift Will Result In Widespread Rain And Embedded Thunderstorms. The Limiting Factor To A Hail Threat Will Be The Poor Lapse Rates Aloft. Therefore...Severe Hail Is Not Expected.

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Sun Apr 6 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms for Srn La to Cntrl/Srn Ms, Al, Wrn Fl Panhandle...

A Shortwave Trough Will Move Ewd Across The Srn Plains And Into The Lower Ms Valley By Sunday Night. A Surface Low Is Forecast To Deepen Late In The Period From La Into Ms...With Shear And Instability Increasing Through The Period Due To Increasing Sly Low-Level Winds.

The Result Should Be A Threat Of Severe Winds And A Few Tornadoes From La Into Ms And Al.

La/Ms/Al...

While Some Timing Differences Exist Between The Various Models... Cyclogenesis Is Likely To Occur By Late Afternoon Or Evening Across La Or Ms In Advance Of The Shortwave Trough.

Shear Profiles Will Increase Attendant To The Trough And Moisture Will Increase Throughout The Period.

In The Wake Of Early-Day Precipitation...Mid 60s F Boundary Layer Dewpoints Are Probable Across The Developing Warm Sector...From Sern La Into Cntrl And Srn Ms And Al.

This Will Create Modest But Sufficient Instability For A Severe Wind And Tornado Threat With Details To Be Determined In Later Outlooks.

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Apr 7-11 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

Monday D4: Various Model Solutions Are In Decent Agreement With
Large Scale Features On Mon/D4 Depicting A Shortwave Trough Over The Lower Ms Valley Mon Morning With Surface Low Moving From Wrn Tn Into Oh By 00z.

While The Warm Sector Immediately Ahead Of The Cold Front Into Ms And Al Will Be Comprised Of Mid 60s F Dewpoints...A Surface Ridge Will Exist Across The Carolinas And Into Nrn Ga Initially With Much Drier Air.

With A Broad Belt Of Swly 850 Mb Flow And Warm Advection Into That Area...Substantial Precipitation Is Expected To Be Ongoing For Much Of The Day From Nrn Ga Into Nc.

Therefore...The Instability Evolution During The Day Is Questionable.

In Addition...The Strongest Lift With The Surface Low Is Likely To
Distance Itself From The Better Instability Farther S.

Therefore...The Minimum Required 30 Percent Probability Is Not
Currently Met Although An Eventual 15 Percent Slight Risk Appears
Probable.

Beyond The D4 Period: Substantial Offshore Surface Winds Will Shunt Low-Level Moisture Farther From Land As The Cold Front Clears The Gulf Of Mexico And Wrn Atlantic.

It Will Take Several Days To Reset Moisture Trajectories And By D8 Or So Moisture And Instability Could Begin Increasing Across The Srn Plains But Potential Is Not Significant At This Time And Predictability Low.


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