Severe Weather Threat Thu May 9

Weak Split Flow Pattern Will Prevail Over The Lwr 48 This Period As
Four Corners/Cntrl Rckys Upr Low Continues To Devolve Into An
Elongated Positive-Tilt Trough...And Ne U.S. Low Accelerates Ene To
Become Reabsorbed In The Wlys. Moderate Wsw Flow Will Prevail From The Srn Plns/Ozarks Into The Oh/Tn Vlys On Srn Fringe Of Elongating Trough.

Nrn Stream Cold Front Will Continue To Advance S/Se Across The
Cntrl/Srn Plns...Delimiting The Nrn And Wrn Extent Of A Rather Large
Area Extending From Parts Of Tx And Ok Newd Into The Oh Vly/ Midwest That Will Have At Least A Conditional Risk For Svr Tstms Through Tngt. The Front...And Confluence Axes/Outflow Boundaries To Its S And E...Should Be The Main Low-Lvl Focus For Storm Development Through The Period.

Srn Plns/Arklatex Today/Tngt...

Satellite Shows An Upr Disturbance Now Over The Tx Big Bend That
Should Continue Ene Across The Remainder Of Tx Today And Into Ar/W Tn Tngt/Early Fri. Ascent With This Feature...And Modest Sfc Heating Of Rather Moist And Conditionally Unstable Environment On Its Periphery...Should Support Intensification And Areal Extension Of Existing Tstms Cluster Now Over Cntrl Tx.

Clouds Will Limit Sfc Heating...But Given Quality Of Moisture Inflow
/Pw Varying From Around 1.00 Inch In The Edwards Plateau To Above
1.50 In E Cntrl And Se Tx/...Deep Eml...And Persistent Ascent... Potential Will Exist For Strong Updrafts With Large Hail And Locally Dmgg Wind.

The Current Area Of Storms Appears To Be Associated With A Sfc-850
Mb Confluence Zone Ahead Of Srn Plns Cold Front. This Confluence
Zone Should Shift Ene Across Cntrl Tx Through The Day...With The
Greatest Potential For Svr Storms Possibly Occurring As The
Confluence Zone Reaches And Moves E Beyond The I-35 Corridor Later Today Into Tngt. 40-45 Kt Wswly Deep Shear...Coupled With Moisture Availability...May Support Forward-Propagating/Bowing Segments With High Wind Ewd Across The Mid/Upr Tx Cstl Pln...The Sabine Rvr Vly...And Parts Of Ar/La By Early Fri.

N And W Of The Above Activity...Tstms Also May Form Along Cold Front
Late This Aftn From Cntrl Ok Swwd Into W Tx. A Few Storms Also Could From Near Intersection Of The Front With Lee Trough/Dry Line In W Tx. Pockets Of Ample Shear/Instability Should Exist In These Areas To Support A Conditional Risk For Sustained Updrafts/ Supercells With Svr Hail/Wind. Absence Of Strong Forcing For Ascent And Modest Llj Suggest That These Storms Should Weaken By Mid To Late Eve.

Mid Ms/Lwr Oh Vlys This Aftn/Eve...

A Belt Of Enhanced /30+ Kts At 500 Mb/ Wswly Low To Mid-Lvl Flow
Will Persist Over The Mid Ms/Lwr Oh Vlys Today...Associated With Nrn
Stream Trough Now Over Ia...And Convectively-Induced Circulations
Left From Overnight Mcss. Coupled With Sfc Heating...This May
Support One Or Two Corridors Of Stronger Storm Development This Aftn From Parts Of Ern Mo Ene Into Cntrl/Srn Il...Ind...And Perhaps
Nrn/Wrn Ky. While The Lwr Lvls Are Not Particularly Moist...Area 850
Mb/Vwp Data Suggest That Sufficient Moisture Advection Will Occur To
Support Sustained Storms S And E Of The Ern Extension Of Plns Cold
Front. Relatively Modest Mid-Lvl Lapse Rates Should Mitigate Overall
Svr Risk...But A Conditional Risk For Svr Wind Gusts And Hail Will
Nevertheless Exist...Especially In Il.


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