Severe Weather Threat Sun May 5

Large-Scale Pattern Will Remain Unchanged Through Mon...With The
Main Belt Of The Wlys Continuing Across Cntrl Canada And Dual Blocks Over The Ne Pacific And New England.

Farther South...Cstl Ca Upr Low Should Settle Farther Sw Into The E Pacific...While Nrn Ms Low Edges E To Nrn Ga.

Cool/Dry Conditions Will Persist At Lwr Lvls...Except Along The S Atlantic Cst...Where A Narrow Corridor Of Moisture Return Will Continue Ahead Of Nw-Se Confluence Zone Now Over The Savannah Rvr Vly Swd Into The Atlantic.

Srn Sc This Aftn/Eve...

Nw-Se Confluence Zone Now Entering Far Wrn Sc Should Progress Slowly Ne Across Srn And Ern Sc Later Today...Ahead Of Slowly-Moving Upr Low. Broken Bands Of Showers And Possible Tstms Should Persist Along The Confluence Zone As Low-Lvl Moisture Continues To Gradually Increase To Its E. Area Vwp Data Show Ample Low-Lvl Veering To Support Low-Lvl Updraft Rotation... Especially Where The Convection Intersects Wsw-Ene Warm Front Over The Sc Cstl Pln.

The Wind Field And Large-Scale Forcing For Ascent Over Sc Likely
Will Show Little Change Today. But Increase In Low-Lvl Theta-E Due
To Combination Of Continued Moisture Return And Modest Sfc Heating May Sufficiently Boost Low-Lvl Buoyancy To Yield A Few Showers/Weak Tstms With Low-Lvl Rotation And Perhaps A Brief Tornado. Any Such Threat Should Diminish After This Eve As Nwd Advance Of Warm Front Is Outpaced By Ne Movement Of Confluence Zone.

Ern Al/Wrn Ga/Se Tn This Aftn/Eve...

Vort Lobe Pivoting Around Se Quadrant Of Ms Upr Low Per Satellite
And Vwp Data Will Continue Ene Across The Remainder Of Al And Nw Ga Later Today/Tngt. As Associated Mid-Lvl Cooling /500 Mb Temps Blo Minus 20c/ And Ascent Overspread Narrow Dry Slot Over Ern Al/Wrn Ga...Sctd Showers/Tstms May Form Along Sfc Wind Shift/Cold Front Now Becoming Better Defined In Cntrl Al. With Sfc Dewpoints Expected To Remain In The Mid-Upr 40s F In Zone Of Strongest Sfc Heating Over Ern Al/Wrn Ga...Setup Could Yield A Few Instances Of Hail. Limited Moisture And Multicell Storm Mode Should...However...Minimize Any Risk For Svr Hail.

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