Severe Weather Threat Sun Jun 2

Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States And New England...

A Mid/High Level Speed Max Is Expected To Shift Northeastward Over
The Northeast States/New England On The Periphery Of An Upper Trough Pivoting Over Ontario/Quebec And The Great Lakes Region. While Showers/Some Tstms May Accompany The Cold Front Early
Sunday...Pockets Of Stronger Destabilization Are Probable Ahead Of
The Front...Although Weak Mid-Level Lapse Rates May Temper The
Overall Degree Of Destabilization. Even So...Mlcape On The Order Of
1000 J/Kg Or Greater Will Be Sufficient For Strong/Severe Tstm
Development And Intensification Into The Afternoon.

As Storms Mature...Strong Deep Layer Southwesterly Winds... Accentuated By As Much As 35-50 Kt Between 2-6 Km...Will Support The Development Of Organized/Sustained Clusters Of Storms Including Bows. Damaging Winds Will Be The Primary Hazard... Although Some Severe Hail/Perhaps A Tornado Threat May Exist As Well.

Eastern Nm/Southwest Tx...

Moist Southeasterly Upslope Trajectories Are Expected Across The
Region On Sunday With Moisture Increasing/Shifting
West-Northwestward Into Southwest Tx And Parts Of Eastern/Interior
Nm. While Mid-Level Flow /2-6 Km/ Will Be Meager...Stronger
High-Level Westerlies In Conjunction With Veering Wind Profiles May
Yield As Much As 35 Kt Of Effective Shear...Which Will Be Sufficient
For Multicells/Some Supercells Given Relatively High Moisture
Content And Moderate Potential Instability. Large Hail Along With
The Possibility Of An Isolated Tornado Will Be The Primary Hazards
During The Afternoon Into Parts Of Sunday Evening.

Central Mt...

Ahead Of An East-Southeastward Moving Shortwave Trough Over The
Northern Intermountain Region...Convergence In Vicinity Of Surface
Low/Associated Frontal Boundary As Well The Influence Of Terrain
Will Likely Contribute To Tstm Development Especially Sunday
Afternoon/Evening. While Moisture/Destabilization Will Likely Be
Limited...Sufficiently Steep Lapse Rates/Strengthening Vertical
Shear May Account For A Limited Severe Potential With Hail/Gusty
Winds Possible On An Isolated Basis.

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