Severe Weather Threat Sep 5-9

Medium Range Models Continue To Suggest That A Low/Mid-Level Cyclone Will Finally Progress Inland Across The Pacific Northwest Coast On Thursday /Day 4/...Probably In Response To The Continued Eastward Progression Of A Significant Upstream Impulse.

While The Spread Among The Model Ensemble Data Has Decreased With This System...With The Continued Approach Of This Particular Time Period...Considerable Variability Lingers Concerning Details Which Could Impact The Severe Weather Potential.

It Does Appear Probable That One Of At Least A Couple Of Smaller Scale Impulses Pivoting Around The Circulation Center Will Be Accompanied By A 50+ Kt 500 Mb Jet Streak. The Exit Region Of This Feature Will Provide A Potential Focus For Enhanced Lift/ Destabilization And Shear That Could Support The Development Of Supercell Storms...Particularly If/Where It Coincides With Peak Afternoon Boundary Layer Heating/Instability.

Central/Eastern Washington Currently Seems The Area Most Likely To
Be Impacted...But Uncertainties Remain Too Large To Delineate A
Severe Threat Area At This Time.

It Does Also Still Appear Possible That At Least Some Severe
Potential Will Accompany The Eastward Development Of The Remnant Upper Impulse As It Progresses Along The International Border...East Of The Northern Rockies Into The Plains.

However...Current Indications Are That This Potential May Remain Relatively Minor Or Sparse In Coverage.

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