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Severe Weather Threat Sep 25-29

Broad Consensus Of Guidance Suggests Amplified Upper-Level Trough Over The West Will Move Into The N-Cntrl Conus By D7/Sat.
Run-To-Run Continuity Remains Low Regarding The Handling Of Individual Shortwave Impulses Ejecting Within The Trough.

Low-Level Moisture Return Into The N-Cntrl States From The Wrn Gulf Will Be Greater Than The Shortwave Trough On D1-2. Nevertheless...This Return Appears To Be Lackluster Exclusive Of The Typically High-Biased Gfs/Gefs Depicting More Robust Surface Dew Points Compared To The Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensemble And Cmc.

The Largely Positive-Tilt/Amplified Nature Of The Trough And Downstream Ridge Suggest That Capping Should Inhibit Prominent Convective Development Until About D6/Fri.

Although Deep-Layer Shear May Potentially Be Strong...The Likelihood
Of Weak Buoyancy Yields Only Low Severe Probabilities For The Upper Midwest To The Cntrl Plains.


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