Severe Weather Threat Sep 24-28

High Confidence Persists Regarding The Development Of An Amplified Upper-Level Trough Into The West By D5/Wed.

Predictability Wanes With Time As To How This Trough Progresses E/Newd Into The N-Cntrl States As It Impinges On An Amplified Ridge From The Gulf Coast To The Great Lakes. Moisture Return From The Wrn Gulf Ahead Of This Trough Appears Greater Than The Shortwave Trough On D2-3 In The N-Cntrl States. Nevertheless...This Return Appears To Be Lackluster Exclusive Of The Typically High-Biased Gfs/Gefs Depicting More Robust Surface Dew Points Compared To The Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensemble And Cmc.

The Largely Positive-Tilt/Amplified Nature Of The Trough Suggests That Capping May Inhibit Prominent Convective Development Until Late Week Given Probable Weak Potential Buoyancy.

Low Severe Probabilities May Eventually Be Warranted For The D6-7 Time Frame From The Nrn Plains/Upper Midwest To The Srn Plains/ Ozark Plateau.

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