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Severe Weather Threat Sep 18-22

00z Deterministic/Ensemble Model Guidance Generally Suggest That A Progressive Belt Of Westerlies Will Remain Over The Northern Half Of The Conus Into Canada Through The Middle Part Of The Week... Highlighted By The Eastward Progression Of An Upper Trough Over The North-Central Conus/Central Canada.

As This Occurs...Low-Level Moisture Will Spread Northeastward Into Much Of The Middle/Upper Ms River Valley And Midwest Ahead Of A
Southeastward-Moving Cold Front.

While The Predictability/Expected Magnitude Do Not Warrant 30
Percent Equivalent Risk Areas...It Appears That Some Severe Tstms
May Be Possible On Day 4/Wednesday In Areas Potentially Including
The Dakotas/Northern Mn.

As The Front Continues Southeastward...A Similar Severe Risk Could Then Potentially Spread Into Additional Parts Of The Midwest/Great Lakes And Middle Ms River Valley On Days 5-6 Thursday/Friday.


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