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Severe Weather Threat Sep 16-20

00z Based Deterministic/Ensemble Guidance Generally Suggest That A Progressive Belt Of Amplified Westerlies Will Exist Over The
Northern Half Of The Conus Into Canada For Much Of The Period.

Initially...Little Severe Potential Is Expected Through Days 4-5 Monday /Tuesday. Into The Middle Of The Week...Low-Level Moisture Will Gradually Spread Northeastward Into The Midwest/Upper Ms Valley
Ahead Of An Amplifying Upper Trough/Southeast-Moving Cold Front.

Although The Predictability/Expected Magnitude Do Not Warrant 30
Percent Equivalent Risk Areas...Current Indications Are That At
Least Some Severe Tstms May Be Possible Across Portions Of The Upper Midwest/Middle Mo Valley On Day 6/Wednesday. In Tandem With The Advancing Front...A Similar Severe Risk Could Then Potentially Spread Into Additional Parts Of The Midwest/Great Lakes On Day 7/Thursday.


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